It has hardly been smooth sailing for Bears quarterback Caleb Williams in his rookie season, and the most treacherous waters lie ahead.
While much has been made about the Packers game Sunday being the launch of a brutal second half of the schedule for the Bears — the fiercest in the NFL with a current .708 collective opponent winning percentage — it also is the beginning of the biggest challenge of Williams’ young football career.
All but two of his remaining opponents — all three NFC North teams twice, plus the 49ers and Seahawks — are in the top third of the league in scoring defense and every one of them is in the top half in pressuring quarterbacks and ranked 17th or better in opponent passer rating.
The seas are a roiling, Captain Caleb.
Things can snap into place suddenly for a rookie quarterback, so that’s always a possibility for Williams, but as of now he hasn’t looked ready for that.
His best stretch of the season was when he completed 74.1% of his passes, threw for 687 yards and had seven touchdown passes and one interception for a 122.8 over three consecutive wins against the Rams, Panthers and Jaguars. Those defenses are all in the bottom third of the NFL in points allowed and opponent passer rating.
Before that uptick, Williams posted a 65.3 passer rating in his first three games, going 1-2, and since it he has a 64.7 rating and three losses.
The best passing defenses Williams has faced this season were the Texans (seventh in opponent passer rating), Titans (16th) and Cardinals (18th). In those three games, he completed 55.1% of his passes, averaged 161.3 yards and had a 59.1 rating.
The Bears hope new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, who got the job when Shane Waldron got fired Tuesday, can help change that against a Packers defense that has allowed just three triple-digit passer ratings.
“The guy you’ve been trying to get on the same page with isn’t here anymore, so now you have to adjust fast because we’re in the division now,” Williams said. “It’s an important game for us not only because it’s divisional, but obviously it’s the Packers. We have to handle it like that, and I have to handle the situation I’m in.”
The situation he’s in is hectic off the field with a change in play callers and coach Matt Eberflus appearing to be in over his head, but also on it against a very good Packers’ defense.
They have a fearsome front that has gotten pressure on 24.5% of pass plays (12th in the NFL), they’re sixth in interceptions (10), second in total takeaways (19) and sixth in third-down defense (33% opponent conversions).
The Packers also have been living rent-free in the heads of Bears quarterbacks for decades. Whether it’s been the figurative pressure of trying to outduel Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love or the actual pressure from a defense that’s been solid all six seasons of coach Matt LaFleur’s season, it’s been ugly.
Mitch Trubisky was the last Bears quarterback to beat the Packers, doing so in 2018 when Rodgers was falling apart, but finished 1-6 with a 79.5 passer rating. Justin Fields followed by going 0-6, losing those six by a total of 77 points, with a 75.5 passer rating and more turnovers (nine) than touchdowns (six).
When Williams said in February his ambition was to “create history and rewrite history” if the Bears drafted him, this is exactly the type of narrative they hoped he’d change.