LAS VEGAS — In his sixth season as the Bulls’ coach, will Billy Donovan steer them to at least 33 victories? That’s the question for the franchise, whose universal projected season-win total is 32.5.
“The only way to play this prop is over,” Doug Kezirian said. “Chicago closed the regular season at 15-5, which was a culmination of its seasonlong transition to a higher pace and emphasis on three-point shooting.”
The Bulls finished 39-43 for the second consecutive season. In ’22-23, they were 40-42. Over the last eight seasons, the Bulls have made the playoffs once, a first-round loss to the Bucks in ’21-22.
In mid-April, they lost a play-in game at home to the Heat.
“I don’t envision significant regression,” Kezirian said, “given that the young core of Josh Giddey, Coby White and Matas Buzelis all reached another level and should continue that trajectory.”
Bryant Junior would bet over, too, despite the general on-court steep downgrade from guard Lonzo Ball to forward Isaac Okoro.
In July, the Bulls traded Ball to the Cavaliers for Okoro in a deal that was still being lampooned in September.
“He’s a much worse player, overall,” Junior said of Okoro. “That said, I don’t think they’ll be seven wins worse due to this downgrade.
“Another important consideration is that the Bulls have shown a willingness to be mediocre and avoid tanking. They might be able to finish the season strong if they maintain earnest efforts to win while many other teams are in full-tank mode.”
All that Jazz
A former ESPN betting-show host who now runs an independent operation, Doug Kezirian Sports Network on YouTube, Kezirian believes the Bulls are two stars away from truly competing.
“I highly doubt the current roster has anyone who can be the best or second-best player on a championship team,” Kezirian said. “After all, they were a whisker away from firing Donovan.
“The ship seems to have been steadied, and they just need to nail draft picks, such as Buzelis, and avoid the ones that can set a franchise back, like Patrick Williams.”
Over five seasons, the Bulls have paid Williams $50 million to average 9.6 points and 4.1 rebounds, and they’ll give him $72 million for the next four campaigns.
Kezirian also favors the Jazz over 18.5 wins because he’s convinced the team’s floor is 15 wins but its ceiling is closer to 30.
Plus, the Jazz’s hierarchy claims it won’t tank. It followed that time-honored NBA tactic last season with a league-worst 17-65 record but netted only the fifth overall pick, thanks to the lottery.
“I expect the Jazz to capitalize [on having] an elite coach in Will Hardy,” Kezirian said. “All-Star Lauri Markkanen could get traded, but the Jazz still have an impressive nucleus of recent lottery picks.”
He highlighted Keyonte George, Cody Williams, Taylor Hendricks and rookie Ace Bailey.
“The altitude always makes Salt Lake City a tough road game for visitors,” Kezirian said. “And if any of the youngsters shine, they should fly over this win total.”
Pace ’n’ space
Junior almost exclusively bets, and prospers, on the NBA, capitalizing on information that isn’t so public about who is or isn’t playing.
Also, that’s an alias, anonymity we agreed to last year in a profile. He then lived in Colorado. Restrictions precipitated a move to Phoenix, where he enjoys more options and better limits.
He’d like Donovan to push a “very high” pace and space offense.
“They’re hopeless to be an above-average defense, so they need to lean into unleashing their most talented offensive players and out-score teams,” Junior said.
“As a below-average NBA team, conventional wisdom says to slow the game to allow for more variance in fewer total possessions. But that’s not a realistic path to wins when four of five starters are defensively challenged.”
At DraftKings, the Bulls’ odds to win the Central Division are 130-1, 200-1 to win the Eastern Conference and 800-1 to win a seventh crown.
Junior would like to see Giddey produce for an entire season and push the pace as the primary transition playmaker, White average in the low 20s and Buzelis, the team’s most-talented player, improve his output.
“Up the pace, with those three delivering,” Junior said, “and this could be an above-average offense that exceeds expectations.”
Lakers vs. Knicks?
Junior believes the defending champion Thunder have been overrated and would have lost in the playoffs to a healthy Nuggets team.
“And the Thunder would have lost to the Pacers,” he said, “if not for some of the more lopsided officiating I’ve seen in Game 4 of the NBA Finals.”
He called the Nuggets and Lakers the best values to win the West. At the Westgate -SuperBook, the former’s conference and title odds are +425 and +650, respectively, while the latter’s are 10-to-1 and 18-1.
In particular, Junior said, the Lakers could soar if second-year coach JJ Redick implements quality offensive schemes rather than allowing “too much pick-up basketball.”
He also recommended the Pacers over 38.5 wins, the Trail Blazers over 34.5 and the Hawks under 47.5. Plus, Junior likes that the Knicks replaced Tom Thibodeau with Mike Brown. At the SuperBook, they’re +250 to win the East, +800 to win it all.
“With a big head-coach upgrade and better depth,” Junior said, “the Knicks will be legitimately dangerous, and they’re my pick to make the Finals.”