Welcome to the Hotline’s Big 12 men’s basketball power rankings, a weekly assessment of the conference using analytics and common sense, with a strand of pasta occasionally heaved at the wall when mayhem is rampant. The power rankings will be published each Tuesday through the end of the regular season. Last week’s edition can be found here.
We are three months from Selection Sunday, enough time for plots to twist and trajectories to change multiple times over. But for one Big 12 basketball program, the endgame is quickly coming into view. And the picture is just as blurred as you would expect from Bobby Hurley and Arizona State.
Hurley’s future in Tempe is a source of speculation each March and should be once again when the 2025-26 season winds down. Will the Sun Devils make the 68-team field and save his job? What happens if they miss the cut?
They whiffed last spring, and it wasn’t close. ASU’s record (13-20) was the worst of Hurley’s tenure. But athletic director Graham Rossini opted to bring Hurley back for another year — for the final year of his contract.
Would a berth in the NCAAs guarantee Hurley’s return? Only Rossini knows for certain. But a third consecutive March without madness assuredly would lead to Hurley’s dismissal after 11 seasons.
And wouldn’t you know it: As the non-conference portion of the schedule winds down, ASU (9-2) is on the bubble.
In fact, you cannot be more bubblicious than the Sun Devils:
— They would be the “last team in” the NCAAs if the tournament were selected today, according to ESPN’s Bracketology.
— They are No. 51 in the NET rankings, well within the range of teams that sneak into the field … and sometimes are left out.
— They have just one quality win, which is suboptimal, but no bad losses, which is positive, and their non-conference schedule is ranked 86th nationally by KenPom.com: solid but not stout.
— And according to BracketMatrix, which aggregates 34 NCAA Tournament projections from across the internet, the Sun Devils are the best of the rest, the first team listed on the wrong side of the bubble.
In theory, the next month will be telling.
The Sun Devils visit UCLA this week and host Oregon State before breaking for Christmas. Their conference schedule begins in unforgiving fashion with trips to No. 10 BYU, No. 1 Arizona and No. 8 Houston in the first five games.
We suspect that gauntlet won’t spell doom for the Devils — that they will scramble, recover and navigate the remainder of the schedule with just enough success to keep everyone guessing.
Nothing would better epitomize the Hurley era, with all its nuance and confounding fluidity, than for the Sun Devils to emerge as either the last team in the NCAAs or the first team out.
(Results and NET rankings through Monday)
1. Arizona (9-0)
Result: beat Alabama 96-75NET ranking: 4Comment: No team (anywhere) has a better collection of wins than the Wildcats (Florida, UConn, UCLA, Auburn and Alabama). But the NET algorithm sees four Quadrant IV results on Arizona’s resume and cringes. In contrast, top-ranked Michigan has 10 wins, but only one qualifies as a Quad IV result. (Previous: 1)
2. Iowa State (11-0)
Results: beat Iowa 66-62 and Eastern Illinois 78-53NET ranking: 5Comment: Amazing upturn in the Cyclones’ adjusted offensive efficiency ranking, per KenPom.com, over the past five years (chronologically): 171, 114, 52, 19 and 11. If they remain in the top 15 through conference play, the Big 12 title could follow. (Previous: 2)
3. Houston (10-1)
Results: beat Jackson State 80-38 and New Orleans 99-57NET ranking: 15Comment: The showdown with Arkansas on Saturday will be the Cougars’ third and final marquee affair outside of Big 12 play. They are 1-1, with a one-point victory over Auburn and a three-point loss to Tennessee. (Previous: 3)
4. BYU (9-1)
Results: beat Clemson 67-64 and UC Riverside 100-53NET ranking: 6Comment: Given the cupcake-filled upcoming schedule, the Cougars should be 16-1 — and perhaps ranked No. 1 for the first time in school history — when they visit Texas Tech in the middle of January. (Previous: 4)
5. Kansas (8-3)
Result: beat NC State 77-76 (OT)NET ranking: 16Comment: Freshman wing Darryn Peterson, potentially the first pick in the NBA Draft, has been as good as advertised except for the part where he’s hurt repeatedly and misses more than half of KU’s early-season games. (Previous: 6)
6. Texas Tech (7-3)
Result: lost to Arkansas 93-86NET ranking: 25Comment: For a brief period of time, we considered Texas Tech a basketball school. But the stars have realigned in Lubbock, which would make former coach Mike Leach quite happy. (Previous: 5)
7. Arizona State (9-2)
Results: beat Northern Arizona 73-48 and Santa Clara 82-79NET ranking: 51Comment: Down 17 points at halftime and without coach Bobby Hurley, who was ejected, the Sun Devils rallied to beat Santa Clara in Las Vegas over the weekend. How long will the momentum last? We’ll know Wednesday night, when they visit UCLA. (Previous: 7)
8. Colorado (9-1)
Result: beat UTSA 88-64NET ranking: 47Comment: If the Buffaloes can avoid a bad loss in the next few weeks, they should enter conference play on the outskirts of the NCAA bubble. Which is better than not being on the bubble at all. (Previous: 9)
9. Baylor (7-2)
Result: beat Norfolk State 97-67NET ranking: 65Comment: The Bears have allowed at least 80 points in five of their nine games, often against third-rate competition. If that keeps up, forget about challenging for the Big 12 title … or an NCAA bid. (Previous: 8)
10. Oklahoma State (9-1)
Result: lost to Oklahoma 85-76NET ranking: 72Comment: The Cowboys are just one game ahead of their victory pace at this point last season. But will they avoid another 13-game losing streak at the start of conference play? Seems like a solid bet. (Previous: 10)
11. TCU (7-3)
Results: beat Incarnate Word 69-65NET ranking: 70Comment: Big 12 teams have deftly avoided resume-killing Quad IV losses, with the exception of Utah (Cal Poly), Cincinnati (Eastern Michigan) and, yes, the Horned Frogs (New Orleans). (Previous: 11)
12. UCF (8-1)
Results: did not playNET ranking: 44Comment: How will the Knights respond after a 10-day break? We expect a rough first half against Mercer on Wednesday, followed by a strong showing in the second. (Previous: 12)
13. West Virginia (8-4)
Results: beat Little Rock 90-58, lost to Ohio State 89-88 (2OT)NET ranking: 99Comment: The Mountaineers’ record is weaker than it seems considering their non-conference schedule strength is No. 338, per KenPom, out of 365 Division I teams. Nobody in the Big 12 has faced a softer lineup. (Previous: 13)
14. Kansas State (7-4)
Result: beat Creighton 83-76NET ranking: 66Comment: Handling Creighton doesn’t mean what it did in previous years: The Bluejays are 5-5 with blowout losses to Gonzaga, Nebraska and Iowa State. Even so, it’s better than the alternative for the meandering Wildcats. (Previous: 16)
15. Utah (7-4)
Result: lost to Mississippi State 82-74NET ranking: 147Comment: What a week in Salt Lake City with Kyle Whittingham announcing he’s stepping down (after the Las Vegas Bowl) and the Utes signing a private equity deal. The ghastly loss to Mississippi State was easy to miss. (Previous: 14)
16. Cincinnati (6-4)
Result: lost to Georgia 84-65NET ranking: 128Comment: The race to the bottom of the Big 12 is officially underway. From the looks of it, the Bearcats will have competition, particularly from their friends at Utah. (Previous: 15)
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline