The Big 12 power rankings are published weekly by the Hotline throughout the regular season. They are the result of a deep dive into the analytics, an assessment of subjective factors and, when necessary, flips of the coin. No conference has more parity. The parity leads to chaos, and the chaos creates an endlessly compelling product that is not always easy to unscramble.
(Here are last week’s rankings.)
The Big 12 is guaranteed one participant in the College Football Playoff, with the winner of the conference championship claiming an automatic berth.
The narrative emerging from the most recent selection committee rankings holds that a second bid would come if BYU defeats Texas Tech on Saturday morning — that given their top-five position, the Red Raiders would remain in the CFP despite the loss and collect an at-large berth.
But is that narrative accurate? Is there a path to immense disappointment for a conference that sent just one team to the CFP last season? Could Texas Tech tumble below the cut line and miss the CFP?
In the Hotline’s ongoing effort to prepare readers for even the most unlikely outcomes within an unpredictable process — never forget: the selection committee makes it up as it goes along — the clear and unequivocal answer is, well … possibly?
It’s possible the Red Raiders (11-1), who are favored by 13.5 points in Arlington, could slide far enough down the rankings that they miss the CFP.
It would require a performance so poor that it’s difficult to envision. But what if they lose by 10 in a mistake-prone performance? Clunkers happen, after all, and the Red Raiders aren’t exactly steeped in championship game experience.
In that scenario, they would likely plunge into a resume standoff with the teams competing for the final at-large berth — specifically, Notre Dame and Alabama (if the Crimson Tide loses the SEC championship to Georgia).
Unfortunately, the selection committee doesn’t disclose the metrics, developed by SportSource Analytics, that support its decisions. But the Hotline examined a sampling of updated data points to gain context.
Sagarin rankings
No. 2 Notre Dame
No. 5 Texas Tech
No. 7 Alabama
Sagarin schedule strength
No. 8 Alabama
No. 32 Notre Dame
No. 69 Texas Tech
ESPN FPI (Football Power Index)
No. 3 Notre Dame
No. 5 Alabama
No. 6 Texas Tech
ESPN SOR (strength of record)
No. 8 Alabama
No. 10 Texas Tech
No. 13 Notre Dame
ESPN schedule strength
No. 11 Alabama
No. 42 Notre Dame
No. 59 Texas Tech
ESPN offensive efficiency
No. 3 Notre Dame
No. 14 Alabama
No. 22 Texas Tech
ESPN defensive efficiency
No. 1 Texas Tech
No. 8 Notre Dame
No. 14 Alabama
As you digest those metrics, keep in mind that Texas Tech’s rankings could slide slightly with a loss to an opponent the committee does not deem worthy of a playoff spot — the Cougars are No. 11, just below the cut line. (New rankings will be revealed Tuesday afternoon.)
And what if Alabama beats Georgia?
The Crimson Tide would become an automatic qualifier, giving the SEC four at-large teams (Georgia, Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Mississippi). Add two for the Big Ten — Oregon and the Indiana-Ohio State loser — and there would be a single at-large bid for either Texas Tech or Notre Dame (10-2). Two-loss Miami and Vanderbilt might receive strong consideration, as well.
All of which is to state the following: If the Red Raiders lose, it could get tenuous, especially if Alabama wins.
The Hotline isn’t assuming a two-loss Big 12 runner-up will receive the benefit of the doubt over two-loss Notre Dame.
To the power rankings …
1. Texas Tech (11-1/8-1)
Result: won at West Virginia 49-0
Next up: vs. BYU (9 a.m. on ABC)
Comment: The defense is capable of winning two playoff games, perhaps three. But is the offense good enough to survive the opening round? Against opponents with winning records, Texas Tech is 130th in the country (out of 136 teams) in Red Zone touchdown percentage.( Previous: 1)
2. BYU (11-1/8-1)
Result: beat UCF 41-21
Next up: vs. Texas Tech (9 a.m. on ABC)
Comment: BYU is like a job candidate that submits a stellar resume and has first-rate references but bombs the interview. The loss in Lubbock a few weeks ago was worse than a nightmare. (Previous: 2)
3. Utah (10-2/7-2)
Result: won at Kansas 31-21
Next up: bowl game
Comment: Hard to believe a team coached by Kyle Whittingham would allow 762 rushing yards in consecutive games against the Kansas schools. Even harder to believe the Utes would win both. (Previous: 3)
4. Arizona (9-3/6-3)
Result: won at ASU 23-7
Next up: bowl game
Comment: Now that Brent Brennan has found the right coordinators (Seth Doege and Danny Gonzales), all he has to do is keep them. Which could be much tougher than it sounds. Much, much tougher. (Previous: 4)
5. Arizona State (8-4/6-3)
Result: lost to Arizona 23-7
Next up: bowl game
Comment: Had the Hotline known in advance of the injuries ASU would sustain (player, timing and severity), we would have pegged the Sun Devils for six wins, maximum. All things considered, they did quite well. (Previous: 5)
6. Iowa State (8-4/5-4)
Result: won at Oklahoma State 20-13
Next up: bowl game
Comment: Had the Hotline known in advance of the injuries ISU would sustain (player, timing and severity), we would have pegged the Cyclones for seven wins, maximum. All things considered, they did quite well. (Previous: 6)
7. TCU (8-4/5-4)
Result: beat Cincinnati 45-23
Next up: bowl game
Comment: After a hot start and midseason slump, the Horned Frogs produced a solid finish with back-to-back wins over Houston and Cincinnati that should quiet Sonny Dykes’ critics. (Previous: 7)
8. Houston (9-3/6-3)
Result: won at Baylor 31-24
Next up: bowl game
Comment: We expected an upturn from the Cougars in coach Willie Fritz’s second season, but nine wins exceeded even our forecast. If quarterback Conner Weigman returns, the momentum should continue. (Previous: 8)
9. Kansas State (6-6/5-4)
Result: beat Colorado 24-14
Next up: bowl game
Comment: When does a six-win season feel like an eight-win season? When it starts with four losses in six games and one of the losses is to Army. (Previous: 10)
10. Cincinnati (7-5/5-4)
Result: lost at TCU 45-23
Next up: bowl game
Comment: When does a seven-win season feel like a five-win season? When it starts with seven victories in eight games and ends with four consecutive losses. (Previous: 9)
11. Baylor (5-7/3-6)
Result: lost to Houston 31-24
Next up: season complete
Comment: Easy to envision the losing season in 2025 leading into a lost season in 2026 considering Dave Aranda looks suspiciously like a lame duck. (Previous: 11)
12. Kansas (5-7/3-6)
Result: lost to Utah 31-21
Next up: season complete
Comment: There’s no way to frame this question kindly, so here goes: What do KU’s offensive players do in practice? Because from the looks of the Red Zone blunders, it doesn’t appear they are actually practicing. (Previous: 12)
13. West Virginia (4-8/2-7)
Result: lost to Texas Tech 49-0
Next up: season complete
Comment: Year 1 under Rich Rodriguez included four wins overall and a victory in the game that matters most (the Backyard Brawl), so we’ll consider the season a success for the Mountaineers despite a wipeout in the finale. (Previous: 13)
14. UCF (5-7/2-7)
Result: lost at BYU 41-21
Next up: season complete
Comment: The first step is learning to win, and the Knights can check that box with a Sharpie. The second step is learning to win on the road, which apparently is on Scott Frost’s agenda for 2026. (Previous: 14)
15. Colorado (3-9/1-8)
Result: lost at Kansas State 24-14
Next up: season complete
Comment: From our vantage point, the Buffaloes don’t look poorly coached. They look un-coached. (Previous: 15)
16. Oklahoma State (1-11/0-9)
Result: lost to Iowa State 20-13
Next up: season complete
Comment: The Big 12 ought to name something after the Cowboys to commemorate their back-to-back 0-9 seasons. The nearest dumpster would suffice. (Previous: 16)
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