The Big 12 power rankings are published weekly by the Hotline throughout the regular season. They are the result of a deep dive into the analytics, an assessment of subjective factors and, when necessary, flips of the coin. No conference has more parity. The parity leads to chaos, and the chaos creates an endlessly compelling product that is not always easy to unscramble.
(Here are last week’s rankings.)
With 11 days remaining before the Territorial Cup, Arizona and Arizona State have the same win total and equivalent momentum.
That wasn’t on our Big 12 bingo card for 2025, but perhaps it should have been, for the Wildcats and Sun Devils have reversed fortunes in expert fashion in recent years.
In 2023, Arizona came from nowhere to win 10 games while ASU floundered at the bottom of the Pac-12.
In 2024, ASU rose from ash to win the Big 12 while Arizona, with lofty expectations, unraveled completely.
There was no reason to expect comparable seasons in 2025 — not with ASU retaining so many key pieces from its championship run and Arizona facing a daunting climb to mere respectability.
But the Wildcats (7-3/4-3) have replicated the late-season energy from their 2023 run with a defense that has improved exponentially under first-year coordinator Danny Gonzales and quarterback Noah Fifita leading a balanced offense.
As they did in 2023, the Wildcats lost two close games in the middle of the season (back then: USC and Washington; now: BYU and Houston) but assimilated the pieces in time for a sizzling stretch run.
They thumped Colorado, rallied to beat Kansas (to secure a bowl berth), upset then-No. 25 Cincinnati and are rapidly ascending the bowl ladder.
The surprise along I-10 is that ASU hasn’t imploded in a fashion akin to Arizona’s 2024 demise.
For that, coach Kenny Dillingham deserves substantial credit. The Sun Devils (7-3/5-2) lost quarterback Sam Leavitt for the season (foot surgery) and have been without star receiver Jordyn Tyson for three games. Yet they continue to find new and creative ways to snatch victory from apparent defeat.
ASU’s five conference victories have come by a total of 17 points. Whatever the configuration of their lineup, it seems, the Sun Devils are comfortable on the edge.
For that reason, they are smack in the middle of the Big 12 race.
Well, maybe not in the middle. ASU needs help to reach Arlington. But if BYU loses this weekend at Cincinnati and the Sun Devils win out, the tiebreaker just might shift in their favor.
Granted, winning out means winning the Territorial Cup, which appears vastly more difficult than it did before the Sun Devils lost Leavitt and Arizona found its footing.
Regardless of the results this week, when the Wildcats host struggling Baylor and the Sun Devils visit floundering Colorado, the matchup in Tempe on Black Friday will be one of the most anticipated — and impactful — in years.
It marks the first time both teams have at least seven wins at the time of kickoff since 2014 — and if form holds this week, both will have eight.
ASU could be playing for a spot in Arlington.
Arizona could be playing for a spot in the Holiday Bowl (and to derail ASU’s title charge).
And both teams could be ranked, just as they were for the 2014 showdown.
With the Pac-12 South division title on the line, the Wildcats broke open a tie game in the third quarter, then held off the Sun Devils with a defensive stand in the final minutes for a 42-35 victory.
Given where the teams stood relative to each other in 2023 (Arizona up, ASU down) and 2024 (Arizona down, ASU up), an evenly matched thriller of a finale would be exactly the unexpected endgame that we probably should have expected.
To the power rankings …
(All times Pacific)
1. Texas Tech (10-1/7-1)
Result: beat UCF 48-9Next up: idleComment: After their bye, the Red Raiders end the regular season at West Virginia, where they will be favored by a bajillion points (and should win by even more). So one spot in the conference championship in Arlington is unofficially officially locked up. (Previous: 1)
2. BYU (9-1/6-1)
Result: beat TCU 44-13Next up: at Cincinnati (5 p.m. on Fox)Comment: The Cougars will advance to Arlington if they beat Cincinnati and UCF. But one loss could create exactly the mayhem that we expect — no, the mayhem that we demand — from the Big 12. (Previous: 2)
3. Utah (8-2/5-2)
Result: won at Baylor 55-28Next up: vs. Kansas State (1 p.m. on ESPN2)Comment: The Utes must win out and need BYU to lose in order to create a multi-team tie that could break Utah’s way under certain circumstances. If the Utes had just kicked a few field goals in the Holy War, instead of attempting all those fourth-and-shorts, they would be in great shape for a rematch with Texas Tech. (Previous: 3)
4. Arizona State (7-3/5-2)
Result: beat West Virginia 25-23Next up: at Colorado (5 p.m. on ESPN2)Comment: The trip to Boulder constitutes a high-level trap game for ASU after the narrow win over West Virginia, ahead of the Territorial Cup and with a vulnerable host — albeit a vulnerable host that has two weeks to prepare. (Previous: 4)
5. Arizona (7-3/4-3)
Result: won at Cincinnati 30-24Next up: vs. Baylor (10 a.m. on TNT)Comment: No defensive coordinator in the Big 12 has done a better job than Danny Gonzales. And yes, that includes Texas Tech’s Shiel Wood, whose unit’s payroll is double (triple?) what Gonzales is working with. (Previous: 8)
6. Cincinnati (7-3/5-2)
Result: lost to Arizona 30-24Next up: vs. BYU (5 p.m. on Fox)Comment: If only the season had ended on Halloween. Since the Day of the Dead, the Bearcats have played like zombies. (Previous: 5)
7. Houston (8-2/5-2)
Result: did not playNext up: vs. TCU (1 p.m. on Fox)Comment: Notable that Fox picked TCU-Houston for the afternoon window instead of Baylor-Arizona. Bigger markets and better records framed the decision over Arizona’s ascent. (Previous: 6)
8. Iowa State (6-4/3-4)
Result: did not playNext up: vs. Kansas (9 a.m. on FS1)Comment: It only feels like the Cyclones have been idle for a month. (Previous: 7)
9. Kansas State (5-5/4-3)
Result: won at Oklahoma State 14-6Next up: at Utah (1 p.m. on ESPN2)Comment: “I’m not apologizing for a win in Stillwater because it’s dang hard to win here,” Wildcats coach Chris Klieman said when, in fact, he would have been much better off saying absolutely nothing. (Previous: 10)
10. TCU (6-4/3-4)
Result: lost at BYU 44-13Next up: at Houston (1 p.m. on Fox)Comment: Remove his miracle first season and Sonny Dykes is 12-13 in conference play with the Horned Frogs. Worse, Houston seemingly has passed TCU by. (Previous: 9)
11. Baylor (5-5/3-4)
Result: lost to Utah 55-28Next up: at Arizona (10 a.m. on TNT)Comment: The Bears are without a permanent athletic director to make a decision on Dave Aranda’s future, but it’s increasingly apparent that the dean of the engineering school could see what must be done. (Previous: 11)
12. Kansas (5-5/3-4)
Result: did not playNext up: at Iowa State (9 a.m. on FS1)Comment: The Jayhawks need one victory for a bowl berth but visit Ames, then host Utah. So the Hotline considers them home for the holidays unless proven otherwise. (Previous: 12)
13. West Virginia (4-7/2-6)
Result: lost at ASU 25-23Next up: idleComment: By any reasonable measure, the season has unfolded as well as could have been expected given the roster challenges facing Rich Rodriguez. (Previous: 13)
14. UCF (4-6/1-6)
Result: lost at Texas Tech 48-9Next up: vs. Oklahoma State (1 p.m. on ESPN+)Comment: Barring a loss to OSU, the Knights will head to Provo for the season finale with a bowl berth on the line. (Previous: 14)
15. Colorado (3-7/1-6)
Result: did not playNext up: vs. ASU (5 p.m. on ESPN2)Comment: Will the final home game for CU’s seniors also be the final home game for CU’s head coach? Deion Sanders’ future is worth monitoring until it isn’t. (Previous: 15)
16. Oklahoma State (1-9/0-7)
Result: lost to Kansas State 14-6Next up: at UCF (1 p.m. on ESPN+)Comment: Congrats to the Cowboys on their first single-digit loss of the conference season. (Previous: 16)
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