The Big Ten will enter the 2025-26 season with four new coaches, at least two top-10 teams and one jaw-dropping drought. The conference hasn’t won the national championship since Michigan State’s run in 2000.
Since then, Big East teams have claimed nine NCAA titles. The ACC has eight.
Will the trophy-less streak continue for the richest conference in the land? Based on current rosters, the Big Ten seemingly has a narrow path to the championship. Only Purdue and perhaps Michigan possess Final Four-level personnel.
However, the Big Ten has a wide middle. It’s easy to envision nine or 10 teams reaching the NCAA Tournament.
Here’s our look at the conference race following NBA Draft and transfer portal decisions.
1. Purdue: Few schools in Division I possess the combination of coaching and culture found in West Lafayette. When the core rotation features one of the nation’s top playmakers (guard Braden Smith) and an impact big man (Trey Kaufman-Renn), the forecast is indisputably bright. Coach Matt Painter should have the best team in the Big Ten, where the competition for supremacy isn’t nearly as stout as in the Big 12 and SEC.
2. Michigan: The Wolverines lost several key pieces from the run to the Sweet 16, but coach Dusty May’s rotation has a high ceiling if the pieces coalesce. UAB transfer Yaxel Lendeborg is a major talent who turned down a likely spot in the first round of the NBA Draft. The Wolverines also added North Carolina guard Elliot Cadeau and Aday Mara, the 7-foot-3 game changer from UCLA. If the Boilermakers stumble, Michigan is best positioned to take advantage.
3. Illinois: It has been years since expectations were this high in Champaign, where the Illini have a rotation worthy of the Sweet 16. The key to success next winter: Consistent high-level play from Andrej Stojakovic, the Cal transfer who averaged 18 points per game last season. Well, that and stout defense. The Illini were ninth in the Big Ten in adjusted defensive efficiency last season (per KenPom.com).
4. UCLA: The Bruins filled their most important need when New Mexico point guard Donovan Dent opted to transfer home — he’s from Riverside — and are vastly better equipped to deal with life in the Big Ten than they were last season. Dent, the Mountain West Player of the Year in 2025, should create more scoring opportunities for forwards Eric Dailey Jr. and Tyler Bilodeau, thus improving the offensive efficiency to the necessary level.
5. Iowa: Our relatively bright outlook for the Hawkeyes is rooted in the arrival of coach Ben McCollum, fresh off his successful one-year run at Drake. McCollum’s lineup will feature guard Bennett Stirtz, who averaged 19 points for Drake and should be one of the most productive players in the Big Ten. With expectations low, the Hawkeyes will spend the season playing with house money.
6. Michigan State: Most assessments of MSU’s position in the conference race (in any year) start not with the personnel but with coach Tom Izzo, and for good reason: He has 18 top-three finishes. That bar seems a tad high for 2025-26 Spartans, who must replace guard Jase Richardson (and others). The combination of returnees Jeremy Fears Jr., Coen Carr and Jaxon Kohler offers a solid foundation, and the Spartans always play first-class defense.
7. Wisconsin: The impact of John Tonje’s departure cannot be overstated, but the Badgers’ mitigation efforts gathered steam when guard John Blackwell opted out of the NBA Draft. The parts are solid, the sum should be even better, and the end result could be a top-tier finish and return to the NCAA Tournament.
8. Oregon: The outlook in Eugene brightened considerably when center Nate Bittle withdrew from the NBA Draft, giving the Ducks one of the best big men in the Big Ten. The combination of Bittle inside and Jackson Shelstad outside is elite — plenty good enough to fuel another trip to the NCAAs. But for Oregon to reach its ceiling, forward Kwame Evans must morph into a double-digit scorer. The Ducks could either contend or meander, depending on the former five-star recruit’s development (or lack thereof).
9. USC: The anticipated first season under Eric Musselman fizzled early and remained flat for the Trojans. But we expect an upturn in 2025-26 following an influx of talent that ranks among the most significant in the conference. Rodney Rice (Maryland) and Chad Baker-Mazara (Auburn) are the headline arrivals, but Musselman’s rotation is deep with playmakers. Don’t be surprised if the Trojans finish in the top five.
10. Ohio State: The Buckeyes return plenty of offense from a team that finished 30th nationally in adjusted efficiency last season (per KenPom.com), thanks largely to the presence of guards Bruce Thornton and Juni Mobley. But will their defense make the jump to contender level? Much hinges on Santa Clara transfer Christoph Tilly, who handled himself well against the best teams in the West Coast Conference.
11. Washington: The pressure is on second-year coach Danny Sprinkle — not necessarily because the Huskies finished last in their first year in the Big Ten but because the roster has enough talent to compete. UW lured a slew of playmakers from the transfer portal, with their latest addition being perhaps the most important: point guard Desmond Claude from USC. Sprinkle is not facing a March Madness-or-bust situation. But the Huskies need a middle of the pack finish, at worst, to keep Sprinkle’s seat cool.
12. Indiana: A double shot of DeVries offers hope in Bloomington, where the storied program has not reached the Sweet 16 in a decade. New head coach Darian DeVries did impressive work at Drake, then spent a single season at West Virginia before jumping to Indiana. His son, Tucker, followed from Morgantown and should be one of the Big Ten’s best players. But the Hoosiers won’t make major progress without strong showing from the supporting cast.
13. Maryland: Success in College Park hinges on new coach Buzz Williams quickly assimilating a disparate collection of talent that, oddly, could feature two starters formerly on Washington State’s roster: guards Isaiah Watts and Myles Rice (whose path includes a stopover at Indiana). Few teams in the Big Ten were hit as hard by attrition, both with the roster and coaching staff.
14. Northwestern: The Wildcats will rely heavily on all-conference forward Nick Martinelli and transfer Jayden Reed, who averaged 12.6 points for South Florida last season. That’s not a terrible foundation, especially when paired with Chris Collins’ coaching. The NCAAs seem a step too far, but Northwestern is hardly a Big Ten bottom feeder.
15. Minnesota: Niko Medved, who offered a masterclass in coaching during seven years at Colorado State, won’t toil in the shadows of the Mountain West any longer. The ultimate goal: Lift his alma mater from the Big Ten’s muddled middle and turn the Gophers into a consistent contender. That task looks daunting in Year 1, for Medved won’t have the pieces to compete with the top half of the conference. Judgment should be withheld for at least two seasons.
16. Nebraska: The Cornhuskers have competed in the Big Ten for 14 years and finished with a double-digit position in the standings 11 times. Their successful run to the College Basketball Crown championship in the spring is reason to believe they could outperform the historical norm, especially if skilled forward Rienk Mast returns effectively from his knee injury.
17. Rutgers: Coach Steve Pikiell lost more games than he won with two first-round picks in the starting lineup (Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper). In fact, Pikiell has lost more games than he’s won more often than not over the course of his nine years with the Scarlet Knights. We expect the scale to continue tipping below .500 in the 2025-26 season.
18. Penn State: It would have been a tough slog for the Nittany Lions with Yanic Konan Niederhauser. Once he entered the NBA Draft (as a borderline first-round prospect), any chance of Penn State being relevant in the race evaporated.
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