Before the start of the college football season, I predicted the order of finish in the Big Ten.
Very, very badly, I might add. On brand, you say? Yeah, yeah.
Now, with five regular-season games to go (not counting the championship game) for each team in the conference, it’s time for my annual Big Ten Re-Rankings column — a tradition so rich and illustrious, I forget to write it roughly every other year.
Let’s use the looming College Football Playoff as a means of separating these teams (current records and my preseason rankings are in parentheses):
CFP locks
1. Ohio State (7-0; 1): With no game this weekend, the Buckeyes can kick their feet up Saturday before resuming their reign of terror. Quarterback Julian Sayin for the Heisman Trophy?
2. Indiana (7-0; 11): Eleventh? Sheesh, that’s embarrassing. Not only won’t the Hoosiers regress to the 5-4 conference record I predicted for them; they have a great shot at running the table.
CFP good bet
3. Oregon (6-1; 4): The Ducks still go to Iowa and Washington and host USC. There’s a good bit of green left in this putt.
CFP long shots
4. USC (5-2; 7): Yes, Illinois fans, you nipped the Trojans in Champaign. You also lost by 47 billion at Indiana. The Trojans aren’t likely to get to 10-2, but doing so would put them very much in play.
5. Michigan (5-2; 6): Freshman QB Bryce Underwood is coming off his best game, against Washington, and his team will be favored in its next four contests. The Wolverines wouldn’t dare beat Ohio State for the fifth time in a row, would they?
6. Illinois (5-2; 5): If the Illini can find a path to victory Saturday in Seattle, they’ll have a pretty straight shot at 10-2. But would they be a playoff team at 10-2? Maybe — if things were to fall entirely in their favor.
7. Iowa (5-2; 8): There are at least a few losable games left on the Hawkeyes’ docket, but they’re a solid team that played Indiana on nearly equal terms. Oregon still comes to Iowa City, an opportunity to make a big move.
8. Washington (5-2; 3): What happened to the Huskies being this year’s Indiana? Maybe that was just my dumb idea.
All the rest
9. Nebraska (5-2; 10): The Huskers’ best win came against Maryland. Even at 10-2, their résumé wouldn’t be much to look at.
10. Minnesota (5-2; 9): The Gophers looked tough as nails last time out, against Nebraska, but eight wins and a mid-tier bowl seems like the best-case scenario.
11. Northwestern (5-2; 12): A tip of the beer helmet to the Wildcats for exceeding all outside expectations to this point. Emphasis on “to this point,” because finding a sixth win, let alone more than that, won’t be easy.
12. UCLA (3-4; 16): The Bruins are 3-1 since firing Deshaun Foster. Unfortunately, the remainder of the schedule is diabolical.
13. Maryland (4-3; 17): Nobody’s talking about the Terrapins, whose three conference losses came by a total of 10 points. A season of “almosts.”
14. Penn State (3-4; 2): Raise your hand if you saw this disaster coming. Oh, stop, you did not.
15. Rutgers (3-4; 13): If the Scarlet Knights can summon any shreds of dignity after losing at home by 46 to Oregon, they might turn themselves into a moderately tough out down the stretch.
16. Michigan State (3-4; 14): Four straight losses have wiped out any and all momentum. A bowl team, this is not.
17. Purdue (2-5; 18): There are vague signs of life in Season 1 on Barry Odom’s watch. Or are there? It’s hard to tell.
18. Wisconsin (2-5; 15): My alma mater won nine games during my four years as a student. The doormat Badgers are almost making me feel young again.
Week 9 picks
All games are Saturday.
Northwestern (+7½) at Nebraska (11 a.m., FS1, 720-AM): The Wildcats have won four games in a row and are just nutty enough to believe they can go to Lincoln and make it five. I wouldn’t put it past them, but I’ll take the Huskers to hang on 27-21.
No. 8 Ole Miss (+5½) at No. 13 Oklahoma (11 a.m., ABC 7): The Rebels lit up the scoreboard and led much of the way in last week’s 43-35 loss at Georgia, but OU’s defense is at a higher level. Boomer, 30-24.
No. 23 Illinois (+3½) at Washington (2:30 p.m., BTN, 890-AM): The Huskies weren’t physical enough to finish drives against Ohio State or Michigan. Is Illinois the same kind of animal defensively? It doesn’t seem so, though a bye week should have the Illini nice and fresh. UDub, 31-24.
No. 3 Texas A&M (-2½) at No. 20 LSU (6:30 p.m., ABC 7): In the proverbial best-of-seven series on a neutral field, I’d take the Aggies 4-3. In Death Valley? Tigers, 31-27.
No. 25 Michigan (-14½) at Michigan State (6:30 p.m., NBC 5): The gap between these rivals is large, but Little Brother will have something to say in this one. Wolverines keep the Paul Bunyan Trophy, though, 27-20.
My favorite favorite: No. 10 Vanderbilt (-2½) vs. No. 15 Missouri (2:30 p.m., ESPN): Last year’s double-overtime loss at Mizzou still sticks in the Commodores’ craws. It’s payback time.
My favorite underdog: Minnesota (+9½) at Iowa (2:30 p.m., CBS 2): The last five Floyd of Rosedale games in Iowa City have been real hogfights, decided by one score. Hawkeyes eke one out by a kick, but the Gophers cover.
Last week: 4-3 straight-up, 3-4 against the spread.
Season to date: 36-20, 27-29.