The Big Ten power rankings will be published weekly throughout the regular season using a mix of data-driven insight and unapologetic subjectivity. With 18 teams, nine conference games and wild variations in the quality of non-conference schedules, comparative analysis is an inherently flawed approach. Which is fine, because the Hotline hasn’t been wrong about anything in at least 90 minutes.
(Last week’s rankings are here.)
One week from the release of the initial College Football Playoff rankings, there are few answers but a plethora of questions.
Here’s one: Will the Big Ten get four teams in?
The conference that sought four automatic berths to a 16-team event does not, at this point, does not have enough teams worthy of filling three at-large spots in the 12-team field.
Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon are effectively locks, with one winning the conference title and the other two taking the at-large route.
But is there another team capable of nudging aside Notre Dame, a second team from the ACC or Big 12 or a fourth from the SEC?
Based on records to date, the Big Ten has five options for a fourth bid: Iowa, Nebraska, Washington, USC and Michigan.
They have the same number of losses (two) but different resumes.
Our assessment of their CFP prospects, from best to worst:
1. Michigan. The Wolverines (6-2) have a strong non-conference schedule, two quality wins (Nebraska and Washington) and two quality losses (at Oklahoma, at USC). And crucially, they have a highly favorable three-game stretch before facing Ohio State in the regular-season finale (in Ann Arbor). If they win out, a playoff berth likely awaits. The one potential hurdle: losing decisively in the Big Ten championship game. CFP likelihood: 33 percent
2. Washington: The schedule gods must enjoy sail-gating, because they did the Huskies (6-2) a solid. Win the next three (Wisconsin, Purdue and UCLA) and UW would enter the Oregon game with a 9-2 record and a playoff berth within reach … maybe. Why the skepticism? Because the Huskies played a third-rate non-conference schedule and would have just one win over a ranked team (Oregon). Any two-loss teams from the SEC contending with UW for a berth likely would have more than one Top 25 scalp. CFP likelihood: 25 percent
3. Nebraska: The Cornhuskers (6-2) are in sneaky-good position for a CFP berth based on a non-conference victory over Cincinnati that looks better by the week and a slightly favorable finishing schedule: They play USC and Iowa at home and Penn State and UCLA on the road. There is a hole on their resume, however: a lopsided loss at Minnesota. CFP likelihood: 15%
4. USC: The Trojans (5-2) have one quality win (Michigan) and two solid losses (Notre Dame and Illinois), and they certainly aren’t the weakest team within this grouping. But they have the toughest path ahead, by far, and zero margin for error. The Trojans would need to sweep Northwestern, Iowa and UCLA at home and beat Nebraska and Oregon on the road. Had USC held that late lead at Illinois, this would be a completely different discussion. CFP likelihood: 10%
5. Iowa: The Hawkeyes (6-2), who have narrow losses to Iowa State and Indiana, will be a lock for the playoff if they win out based on quality wins and schedule strength. But they aren’t winning out — not with trips to USC and Nebraska and a home date with Oregon. (They also host Michigan State.) CFP likelihood: 2 percent
The five schools mentioned above have one point of commonality: They all need Notre Dame to lose again. The location and opponent don’t matter. Only the loss matters in the CFP calculation.
If the Irish (5-2) win out, they assuredly would grab one of the seven at-large berths, leaving the non-champions of the power conferences to fight for six spots.
Considering the results to date, four of those six spots are earmarked for the top teams in the Big Ten and SEC — a combination of Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, Texas A&M, Alabama and Mississippi.
Whichever of the five Big Ten teams examined above emerges with the strongest resume likely will compete against the No. 2 teams in the ACC and Big 12 and the No. 4 team in the SEC for the final two berths.
But if the Irish lose, the at-large pool expands and the road opens.
To the power rankings …
(All times Pacific)
1. Indiana (8-0/5-0)
Result: beat UCLA 56-6Next up: at Maryland (12:30 p.m. on CBS)Comment: The combined conference record of the four teams remaining on Indiana’s schedule (Maryland, Penn State, Wisconsin and Purdue) is a stellar 1-17. Which means the Hoosiers could play their four worst games of the season, win by 20 and qualify for the Big Ten championship game. (Previous: 2)
2. Ohio State (7-0/4-0)
Result: did not playNext up: vs. Penn State (9 a.m. on Fox)Comment: The Buckeyes are due for a no-show performance in which their defense is porous early but granite late and the offense comes alive with five minutes left to secure victory. (Previous: 1)
3. Oregon (7-1/4-1)
Result: beat Wisconsin 21-7Next up: idleComment: The Ducks have beaten one team with a winning record (Northwestern), and they lost decisively to the only ranked opponent faced thus far (Indiana). Good thing they have fared well on the eye test. (Previous: 3)
4. USC (5-2/3-1)
Result: did not playNext up: at Nebraska (4:30 p.m. on NBC)Comment: Will this trip across the Rockies be any different from so many that have come before? The Trojans are 1-6 in the Eastern and Central Time Zones since the start of last season, including the loss at Notre Dame two Saturdays ago. (Previous: 4)
5. Michigan (6-2/4-1)
Result: won at Michigan State 31-20Next up: vs. Purdue (4 p.m. on Big Ten Network)Comment: One more piece to the CFP puzzle for the Wolverines: They need Nebraska and Washington to keep winning, thereby elevating the quality of their head-to-head victories. (Previous: 5)
6. Washington (6-2/3-2)
Result: beat Illinois 42-25Next up: idleComment: Please excuse our instinct for context, but UW’s best win to date is over an opponent (Illinois) with a 53-point loss on its resume. (Previous: 6)
7. Iowa (6-2/4-1)
Result: beat Minnesota 41-3Next up: idleComment: Good chance the Hawkeyes are the most fraudulent 6-2 team in the country based on their resume. But there are several upcoming opportunities to change that existence. (Previous: 9)
8. Illinois (5-3/2-3)
Result: lost at Washington 42-25Next up: vs. Rutgers (9 a.m. on NBC)Comment: Maybe the Illini aren’t this year’s Indiana, but they can be this year’s Illinois, which went 9-3 in the regular season in 2024 and won the Citrus Bowl. (Previous: 7)
9. Minnesota (5-3/3-2)
Result: lost at Iowa 41-3Next up: vs. Michigan State (12:30 p.m. on Big Ten Network)Comment: The thing about freshman quarterbacks is, when it goes bad, it goes really bad. (Previous: 8)
10. Nebraska (6-2/3-2)
Result: beat Northwestern 28-21Next up: vs. USC (4:30 p.m. on NBC)Comment: If only Keith Jackson had lived to 97, he could be on the call Saturday afternoon in Lincoln — and everyone would be so much better for the experience. (Yeah, yeah, we know: It’s an NBC broadcast. Please don’t ruin our dream.) (Previous: 12)
11. Northwestern (5-3/3-2)
Result: lost at Nebraska 28-21Next up: idleComment: The run of success was fun while it lasted. Now comes the reality of an extremely difficult final month.(Previous: 11)
12. UCLA (3-5/3-2)
Result: lost at Indiana 56-6Next up: idleComment: Better-than-average chance that we’ll eventually look back on UCLA’s three-game winning streak as the most overhyped (by the media) stretch of results for any team in the country. Because more losses are coming. Many more losses. (Previous: 10)
13. Michigan State (3-5/0-5)
Result: lost to Michigan 31-20Next up: at Minnesota (12:30 p.m. on Big Ten Network)Comment: It’s all quiet in East Lansing which, admittedly, makes us suspicious. (Previous: 13)
14. Maryland (4-3/1-3)
Result: did not playNext up: vs. Indiana (12:30 p.m. on CBS)Comment: The bottom of the Big Ten is demonstrably worse than the bottom of the SEC. As long as the bad teams keep losing, it’s not an issue. But if they win a few, the stained resumes could impact playoff access for the top finishers. (Previous: 14)
15. Rutgers (4-4/1-4)
Result: won at Purdue 27-24Next up: at Illinois (9 a.m. on NBC)Comment: It’s truly amazing what can happen when you hold the opponent under 30. (Previous: 16)
16. Penn State (3-4/0-4)
Result: did not playNext up: at Ohio State (9 a.m. on Fox)Comment: The Nittany Lions will enter November with their best win thus far being a September victory over FIU — that’s Florida International — in which they led 10-0 at halftime. Unreal. (Previous: 15)
17. Purdue (2-6/0-5)
Result: lost to Rutgers 27-24Next up: at Michigan (4 p.m. on Big Ten Network)Comment: Obviously, the Boilermakers offended someone at Big Ten HQ because they finish with Michigan, Ohio State, Washington and Indiana. Goodness, gracious. (Previous: 17)
18. Wisconsin (2-6/0-5)
Result: lost at Oregon 21-7Next up: idleComment: “Cry us a river,” howl the Badgers, who are in the middle of a four-game stretch against Ohio State, Oregon, Washington and Indiana. (Previous: 18)
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