The Big Ten power rankings will be published weekly throughout the regular season using a mix of data-driven insight and unapologetic subjectivity. With 18 teams, nine conference games and wild variations in the quality of non-conference schedules, comparative analysis is an inherently flawed approach. Which is fine, because the Hotline hasn’t been wrong about anything in at least 90 minutes.
(Last week’s rankings are here.)
From social media to legacy media and all shouting points in between, USC’s hotly anticipated trip to Oregon this week has been billed as a College Football Playoff elimination game.
The Hotline isn’t convinced the situation is as clean and clear as it might appear.
For the Ducks, this old-school Pac-12 showdown certainly carries a win-or-go-home feel. Given their placement in last week’s CFP rankings (No. 8), they likely would drop below the threshold for an at-large berth with a loss.
For the Trojans, the stakes aren’t as easy to define.
A loss would be their third of the season and knock them out of the playoff race — of that, there is zero doubt.
But would success in Autzen Stadium, combined with a victory over UCLA in the season finale, guarantee the Trojans a berth in the CFP?
Not according to the entity that matters most: The CFP selection committee, which has been signaling for two weeks that USC (8-2) is a fringe candidate.
After all, the Trojans were No. 19 in the initial rankings, well below two-loss teams from the Big 12 (Utah) and SEC (Texas, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt) and one spot behind a two-loss team from the muddled ACC (Miami).
The second CFP rankings weren’t much better for USC, which improved to No. 17 — once again behind a slew of two-loss teams from the other power conferences.
Would a victory in Eugene catapult the Trojans into the top 10, the likely cut line for one of the seven at-large berths?
Our skepticism has increased over time due to results elsewhere (e.g., Oklahoma’s win at Alabama and Notre Dame’s victory at Pittsburgh) and a closer look at the committee’s assessment of Oregon (9-1).
The Ducks were No. 9 in the initial rankings, three spots below their placement in the AP poll, and moved up just one position after a road victory over a ranked opponent, Iowa.
Of course, the Hawkeyes might not be ranked this week after losing for the fourth time (at USC), which would leave Oregon with an 0-1 record against Top 25 opponents — that loss coming at home, in decisive fashion, to Indiana.
If the Trojans win Saturday, don’t be surprised if the Ducks lose more ground than USC gains in the CFP rankings next week.
One reason for the limited upside: The Trojans have two potentially immovable obstacles in their path, No. 9 Notre Dame, which beat USC head-to-head, and No. 15 Miami, which beat Notre Dame head-to-head.
The great leap upward many USC fans would expect following a victory in Eugene may not materialize.
Meanwhile, a loss could end Oregon’s playoff push. The Ducks are closer to the cut line than the safe zone right now. Losing to a lower-ranked team would be immensely damaging and create the distinct possibility that Oregon finishes the season with no victories over ranked opponents.
In theory, and perhaps practice, the two-loss Ducks would be behind USC and Notre Dame, plus Alabama and BYU and all the undefeated and one-loss teams in the Big Ten, SEC and Big 12.
The CFP is ultimately a numbers game. The math looks bleak for the losing team Saturday afternoon, and it might not be all that favorable for the winner.
To the power rankings …
(All times Pacific)
1. Ohio State (10-0/7-0)
Result: beat UCLA 48-10Next up: vs. Rutgers (9 a.m. on Fox)Comment: Notable that quarterback Julian Sayin is the No. 2 betting favorite to win the Heisman Trophy (2/1) considering he’s the fourth-best player on his own team, if that, behind receiver Jeremiah Smith, safety Caleb Downs and linebacker Arvell Reese. Mostly, what it says is the Buckeyes are absolutely loaded. (Previous: 1)
2. Indiana (11-0/8-0)
Result: beat Wisconsin 31-7Next up: idleComment: The Big Ten has been, without question, the least interesting Power Four conference this season with its top-heavy structure and Indiana and Ohio State not playing so many of the higher-level teams. (Previous: 2)
3. Oregon (9-1/6-1)
Result: beat Minnesota 42-13Next up: vs. USC (12:30 p.m. on CBS)Comment: It will be like old times in Eugene with the Trojans visiting for a high-stakes matchup and ESPN’s “College GameDay” airing live — except that USC and Oregon missed each other regularly after the Pac-12 added divisions. This will mark the Trojans’ third appearance in Autzen Stadium in the last 14 years. (Previous: 3)
4. USC (8-2/6-1)
Result: beat Iowa 26-21Next up: at Oregon (12:30 p.m. on CBS)Comment: The issue isn’t that USC has proven it can play so-called Big Ten football with wins over Iowa, Nebraska and Michigan. It’s that the Trojans were so ill-equipped for the mission when they joined the conference. They should never be shorthanded at the line of scrimmage — all Lincoln Riley and Co. have done is return to the program’s historical standard. (Previous: 4)
5. Michigan (8-2/6-1)
Result: won at Northwestern 24-22Next up: at Maryland (1 p.m. on Big Ten Network)Comment: Trap game, thy name is Maryland. (Previous: 5)
6. Iowa (6-4/4-3)
Result: lost at USC 26-21Next up: vs. Michigan State (12:30 p.m. on FS1)Comment: When you have one victory over a team with a winning record and that team is Minnesota (6-4), your season is indisputably mediocre. (Previous: 6)
7. Washington (7-3/4-3)
Result: beat Purdue 49-13Next up: at UCLA (7:30 p.m. on NBC)Comment: The disparity between UW’s home and road performance is far greater than it should be at the end of Jedd Fisch’s second season. The situation cannot be mere happenstance and demands a deep dive during the offseason. (Previous: 8)
8. Nebraska (7-3/4-3)
Result: did not playNext up: at Penn State (4 p.m. on NBC)Comment: 1985 called and expects a helluva game Saturday afternoon. (Previous: 7)
9. Illinois (7-3/4-3)
Result: beat Maryland 24-6Next up: at Wisconsin (4:30 p.m. on Big Ten Network)Comment: With the trip to Madison and then a finale (at home) with Northwestern, the Illini should win nine games for the second consecutive regular season. (Previous: 9)
10. Minnesota (6-4/4-3)
Result: lost at Oregon 42-13Next up: at Northwestern (9 a.m. on Big Ten Network)Comment: We totally understand the Gophers’ third-rate performance. Minneapolis to Eugene is an incredibly long way to row a boat. (Previous: 10)
11. Northwestern (5-5/3-4)
Result: lost to Michigan 24-22Next up: vs. Minnesota (9 a.m. on Big Ten Network)Comment: The come-from-ahead defeat to the Wolverines looks like the proverbial quality loss against a more talented opponent until you realize Northwestern was +5 in turnovers. And then it morphs into a terrible loss. (Previous: 11)
12. UCLA (3-7/3-4)
Result: lost at Ohio State 48-10Next up: vs. Washington (7:30 p.m. on NBC)Comment: The Bruins scored more points against Ohio State than either Texas or Washington, so at least they have that going for ’em. (Previous: 12)
13. Rutgers (5-5/2-5)
Result: did not playNext up: at Ohio State (9 a.m. on Fox)Comment: Playing in Columbus on the Fox “Big Noon” broadcast is not the opportunity it might appear for the Scarlet Knights, unless their goal is to look completely overmatched. (Previous: 13)
14. Penn State (4-6/1-6)
Result: won at Michigan State 28-10Next up: vs. Nebraska (4 p.m. on NBC)Comment: The Nittany Lions recording their first conference victory on Nov. 15 was not on our Big Ten bingo card for 2025 — or for any year in recorded history. (Previous: 16)
15. Maryland (4-6/1-6)
Result: lost at Illinois 24-6Next up: vs. Michigan (1 p.m. on Big Ten Network)Comment: If you missed the news, Maryland announced coach Mike Locksley would return next season with enhanced resources — a page out of the Wisconsin playbook, it seems. (Previous: 14)
16. Michigan State (3-7/0-7)
Result: lost to Penn State 28-10Next up: at Iowa (12:30 p.m. on FS1)Comment: Meanwhile, Michigan State’s administration has remained silent on Jonathan Smith’s future, which presumably means school officials are too busy preparing the buyout terms to issue any comment. (Previous: 15)
17. Wisconsin (3-7/1-6)
Result: lost at Indiana 31-7Next up: vs. Illinois (4:30 p.m. on Big Ten Network)Comment: Not out of the question for the Badgers to finish 5-7, which would be fairly impressive considering they have one of the nation’s toughest schedules and one of the Big Ten’s worst rosters. (Previous: 17)
18. Purdue (2-9/0-8)
Result: lost at Washington 49-13Next up: idleComment: If the conference had a mercy rule, the Boilermakers’ season would have been called weeks ago. (Previous: 18)
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