The Big Ten power rankings will be published weekly throughout the regular season using a mix of data-driven insight and unapologetic subjectivity. With 18 teams, nine conference games and wild variations in the quality of non-conference schedules, comparative analysis is an inherently flawed approach. Which is fine, because the Hotline hasn’t been wrong about anything in at least 90 minutes.
(Review last week’s Big Ten rankings here.)
And just like that, September is gone. Done. Over. The month was stocked with twist and turbulence, with upside stunners, downside surprises and major news off the field.
For the Big Ten, it began with a spirited victory (Ohio State over Texas) and ended with a gripping finish (Oregon over Penn State), but there were unexpected stumbles along the way.
Here’s our look at the best of the Big Ten through five weekends of play.
Biggest on-field story: The new QBs. Ohio State (Julian Sayin), Oregon (Dante Moore) and Michigan (Bryce Underwood) all opened the season with playoff hopes hitched to completely or mostly untested quarterbacks. So far, so good. Sayin was poised against Texas and in the din of Husky Stadium; Underwood, a true freshman, was everything the Wolverines could have hoped against Oklahoma and Nebraska; and Moore was superb Saturday night in the White Out bedlam. We should add Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza to the list of impressive first-year starters even though he’s an upperclassman.
Best team: Oregon. Although Ohio State has arguably the best resume, the Ducks would be our pick to win a Big Ten single-elimination tournament if it were held today. The defense is ferocious, the playmakers come in waves, and Moore has played like a veteran. Also, Oregon’s toughest test is in the rearview mirror, so a second consecutive undefeated regular season stands as a distinct possibility. That said, final judgment depends on how the Ducks fare in the postseason.
Best game: Illinois 34, USC 32. We considered the Cy-Hawk, because it was so Cy-Hawk — Iowa State beat Iowa 16-13 — and Michigan State’s double-overtime victory over Boston College. But Illinois’ win Saturday morning had everything and then some, including 992 yards of offense, three touchdowns in the fourth quarter, two fumbles by the Illini on the goal line and a walk-off field goal.
Best offensive player: Michigan TB Justice Haynes. The junior is averaging 134.5 yards per game (third in the nation) and has multiple runs of at least 50 yards. It hasn’t all come against second-rate competition, either: He ripped off 125 yards against Oklahoma, which might have the best defense in the SEC. And yes, we considered Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith. He’s the best player in the country — let’s be clear about that — but had a limited impact in the defining game of OSU’s season to date (six catches for 43 yards against Texas).
Best defensive player: Ohio State S Caleb Downs. Although he doesn’t have gaudy statistics, Downs is so good in so many facets that he makes everyone around him better. How did the Buckeyes hold Texas and Washington to 13 combined points? It all starts with Downs.
Best performance: Oregon QB Dante Moore at Penn State. Moore was so relaxed from start to finish, you’d have thought he was playing in Autzen Stadium and not in one of the most intimidating environments in the sport. He completed 29-of-39 passes, with three touchdowns, zero interceptions and a slew of darts in pressure situations. And he made use of his mobility at just the right times.
Biggest surprise: Maryland. Yes, it’s early. And yes, we could have gone in several directions with this category. But the Terps have blasted past expectations thus far — not only with their record (4-0) but with their dominance in general and the play of freshman quarterback Malik Washington specifically. Don’t be surprised if Maryland finishes with eight or nine wins. Coach Mike Locksley’s seat was hot in August but is cooling quickly.
Biggest disappointment: The soft bottom. The Big Ten appears to have four elite teams in Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State and Indiana. (We aren’t sold on Michigan.) But the bottom feeders are bad, folks — there’s no other way to describe the situation. UCLA is winless — and 0-2 against the Mountain West — while Northwestern lost to Tulane by 20 points, Wisconsin is a hot mess and Purdue, while marginally better under first-year coach Barry Odom, is not even mediocre.
Notable number: Five. Few statistics in college football are as telling as the record each power conference produces in head-to-head matchups with the others. And in that aspect, the Big Ten has been indisputably unimpressive: The conference is just 5-6 against the ACC, Big 12, SEC and Notre Dame. It has fewer wins over power conference teams than the SEC (10), the Big 12 (eight) and even the American (six), and it has the same total as the ACC, which is not company the Big Ten wants to keep.
Biggest off-field story: UCLA’s implosion. The Bruins were run off the field by Utah in the season opener, and things only got worse. They mustered too little too late at UNLV, were humiliated at home by New Mexico and had no choice but to fire second-year coach DeShaun Foster. Nobody expected the Bruins to thrive in the Big Ten, but their structural deficiencies have been laid bare for the sport to examine — and mock. If you think this is entirely the fault of Foster, athletic director Martin Jarmond and former coach Chip Kelly, who bolted in the winter of 2024, months before the Bruins officially joined the Big Ten, then you haven’t been paying attention for the last 20 years.
To the power rankings …
(All times Pacific)
1. Oregon (5-0/2-0)
Result: won at Penn State 30-24 (2OT)
Next up: idle
Comment: More impressive than dominating Penn State for three quarters: Losing a 14-point lead in the final 11 minutes, allowing a touchdown at the start of overtime, then rallying to win in the second overtime. On the grit scale, that performance — like the volume dial in Beaver Stadium — was an 11. (Previous: 2)
2. Ohio State (4-0/1-0)
Result: won at Washington 24-6
Next up: vs. Minnesota (4:30 p.m. on NBC)
Comment: Admittedly, the Hotline was slightly skeptical about the new coordinators in Columbus. But Brian Hartline (offense) has deftly placed quarterback Julian Sayin in positions to succeed while Matt Patricia (defense) has picked up where the master, Jim Knowles, left off. (Previous: 1)
3. Indiana (5-0/2-0)
Result: won at Iowa 20-15
Next up: idle
Comment: Are the Hoosiers as good as their head coach thinks they are? Fortunately, we’ll know soon enough: Indiana has a week off before heading to Eugene, where the rubber will meet the turf — or the road, or whatever. If the Hoosiers win, there will be no more questions. (But they won’t win, and there will be plenty of questions.) (Previous: 5)
4. Penn State (3-1/0-1)
Result: lost to Oregon 30-24 (2OT)
Next up: at UCLA (12:30 p.m. on CBS)
Comment: James Franklin got what he deserved after scheduling Nevada, FIU and Villanova to open the season. That’s it. That’s our comment. (Previous: 3)
5. Michigan (3-1/1-0)
Result: did not play
Next up: vs. Wisconsin (9 a.m. on Fox)
Comment: The next three games (Wisconsin, USC and Washington) don’t look nearly as difficult as they did a few weeks ago, and the Wolverines miss Penn State, Oregon, Indiana or Illinois. They very well could be 10-1 headed into the finale. (Previous: 6)
6. Illinois (4-1/1-1)
Result: beat USC 34-32
Next up: at Purdue (9 a.m. on Big Ten Network)
Comment: “I turned around and looked at Luke (Altmyer) before our final drive. He gave me a head nod. That’s all I needed to see,” Illini coach Bret Bielema said after the game. Eight plays and 51 yards after the nod, Altmyer had Illinois in position for the walk-off field goal. (Previous: 8)
7. USC (4-1/2-1)
Result: lost at Illinois 34-32
Next up: idle
Comment: Sure, the Trojans had a long flight and an early kickoff. But they led Illinois after their body clocks hit noon. So, what’s the next excuse? (Previous: 4)
8. Washington (3-1/0-1)
Result: lost to Ohio State 24-6
Next up: at Maryland (12:30 p.m. on Big Ten Network)
Comment: Physically battered, emotionally dejected, the Huskies now head across the country to face a team that has had two weeks to prepare. You can see loss No. 2 coming from 3,000 miles away. (Previous: 7)
9. Michigan State (3-1/0-1)
Result: did not play
Next up: at Nebraska (1 p.m. on FS1)
Comment: Lose this week, and the path into the postseason narrows substantially. (Previous: 9)
10. Maryland (4-0/1-0)
Result: did not play
Next up: vs. Washington (12:30 p.m. on Big Ten Network)
Comment: We believe the Terps have a real shot at nine wins because they drew the Big Ten’s winning lottery ticket: They don’t play Ohio State, Penn State or Oregon. But a victory over UW is required to make the math manageable. (Previous: 10)
11. Iowa (3-2/1-1)
Result: lost to Indiana 20-15
Next up: idle
Comment: Quarterback Mark Gronowski has not made the expected impact since transferring from South Dakota State. Whether responsibility falls on Gronowski, on Iowa’s tactics and personnel or a combination is subject to debate. But we lean toward the combination of factors. (Previous: 11)
12. Minnesota (3-1/1-0)
Result: beat Rutgers 31-28
Next up: at Ohio State (4:30 p.m. on NBC)
Comment: Halfway to another bowl berth before the end of September gives the Gophers plenty of margin for error down the stretch, where a schedule heavy on former Big Ten West teams offers loads of winnable games. (Previous: 13)
13. Nebraska (3-1/0-1)
Result: did not play
Next up: vs. Michigan State (1 p.m. on FS1)
Comment: With Michigan State, Maryland, Minnesota and Northwestern on tap in October, the Cornhuskers will know by the end of the month if the Matt Rhule experiment is going to pass or fail. (Previous: 12)
14. Rutgers (3-2/0-2)
Result: lost at Minnesota 31-28
Next up: idle
Comment: We’re wary of including the Scarlet Knights in the pool of Big Ten bottom-feeders, but that categorization might become unavoidable in a few weeks — it’s not like they have any quality non-conference wins to prop up their resume. (Previous: 14)
15. Purdue (2-2/0-1)
Result: did not play
Next up: vs. Illinois (9 a.m. on Big Ten Network)
Comment: The Boilermakers don’t need to beat Illinois to prove they are better than the teams listed below, but it would help. It would help a lot. (Previous: 15)
16. Wisconsin (2-2/0-1)
Result: did not play
Next up: at Michigan (9 a.m. on Fox)
Comment: Bye weeks are typically a good time for coaching changes. The Badgers’ next break comes the final week in October, after they play Ohio State and Oregon back-to-back. (Previous: 16)
17. Northwestern (2-2/1-1)
Result: beat UCLA 17-14
Next up: vs. Louisiana Monroe (12:30 p.m. on Big Ten Network)
Comment: If their talent was as elite as the setting for their home games, the Wildcats would be playoff-bound. (Previous: 17)
18. UCLA (0-4/0-1)
Result: lost at Northwestern 17-14
Next up: vs. Penn State (12:30 p.m. on CBS)
Comment: It has gotten so bad in Westwood that losing to a team that lost to Tulane by 20 points doesn’t raise an eyebrow, much less sound an alarm. (Previous: 18)
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