A year ago, I predicted Ohio State would lose its regular-season game at Oregon but rise past the Big Ten-champion Ducks in the end, winning the national title. Ahem: Nailed it.
This season, I envision a similar scenario unfolding. Penn State will lose to the Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium on Nov. 1. But when the College Football Playoff arrives, the Nittany Lions will be the Big Ten’s strongest entrant. A third straight natty for the conference — with PSU its third different champ — is very possible.
If you believe an ESPN panel of experts, it’s more likely the SEC’s season to shine. Eleven out of 12 picked the SEC to get four teams into the 12-team playoff field, or one more than it got in last year. Only two out of 12 picked the Big Ten to get four in for the second year in a row.
According to my projections, which rely on such advanced metrics as horse sense, guesswork and a perfectly timed tuna on toast to get me over the hump, the Big Ten again will get three big boppers into the playoff — PSU, OSU and Oregon — plus one surprise success story. Last season, the surprise was Indiana. This time, some are thinking it could be Illinois. I’m going with Washington.
1. Ohio State
2024: 14-2 overall, 7-2 Big Ten.
2025 regular-season prediction: 10-2, 8-1.
THE BUCKEYES have a new starting quarterback in Julian Sayin and an extremely difficult opening game against Texas, plus road tests including Washington, Illinois and Michigan. Run the table? Not happening.
2. Penn State
2024: 13-3, 8-1.
2025 regular-season prediction: 11-1, 8-1.
THE NITTANY LIONS have a potential first-round pick in QB Drew Allar, the best running back tandem in the land and CFP-caliber lines on both sides of the ball. Last year’s team was excellent, but this one is hands-down better.
3. Washington
2024: 6-7, 4-5.
2025 regular-season prediction: 10-2, 7-2.
THE HUSKIES’ Jedd Fisch went from one win to five and then to 10 in his three seasons at Arizona, which is how he got this job. Something big is brewing here. Home dates with Ohio State and Oregon are massive opportunities.
4. Oregon
2024: 13-1, 9-0.
2025 regular-season prediction: 10-2, 7-2.
THE DUCKS will run the ball more than they did last season, and not many defenses will be able to handle it. You don’t just brush off losing a school-record 10 players to the NFL draft, though.
5. Illinois
2024: 10-3, 6-3.
2025 regular-season prediction: 9-3, 7-2.
THE ILLINI will lose at least three of their first eight games, by my count, but after that will be a chance to put the pedal down and close on a tear. September roadies at Duke and Indiana have me nervous.
6. Michigan
2024: 8-5, 5-4.
2025 regular-season prediction: 8-4, 6-3.
THE WOLVERINES play at Oklahoma, Nebraska and USC before the midpoint of the season. No matter how much NIL dough freshman QB Bryce Underwood has stuffed in his pockets, he’ll be up against it.
7. USC
2024: 7-6, 4-5.
2025 regular-season prediction: 8-4, 6-3.
THE TROJANS lost three-point heartbreakers to Penn State and Michigan in their debut Big Ten season, but they also took on LSU and Texas A&M from the SEC and beat both. A 7-0 mark at home this time would come in handy.
8. Iowa
2024: 8-5, 6-3.
2025 regular-season prediction: 8-4, 6-3.
THE HAWKEYES’ fate is in the hands of a QB who has moved up from the FCS ranks, Mark Gronowski. Can he outperform such recent Hawkeyes passers as … as … never mind. He can and he will, not that either is saying much.
9. Minnesota
2024: 8-5, 5-4.
2025 regular-season prediction: 7-5, 5-4.
THE GOPHERS go to Ohio State and Oregon, but the home slate is very friendly. There’s some real opportunity here, especially if the defense is rock-solid again.
10. Nebraska
2024: 7-6, 3-6.
2025 regular-season prediction: 8-4, 5-4.
THE HUSKERS haven’t won more than three Big Ten games in any season since 2016. I’m not drunk on the Big Red Kool-Aid like some are, but shame on me just the same if I’ve over-poured here.
11. Indiana
2024: 11-2, 8-1.
2025 regular-season prediction: 8-5, 5-4.
THE HOOSIERS’ biggest asset, if you believe the hype, is that coach Curt Cignetti just plain wins. Man, though, this roster is so different from last year’s. Eight wins might be pushing it.
12. Northwestern
2024: 4-8, 2-7.
2025 regular-season prediction: 6-6, 3-6.
THE WILDCATS have a season win over/under of 3½ on at least one betting site. They’ll outdo that as long as new QB Preston Stone rises to approximately Peyton Ramsey’s or Ben Bryant’s level.
13. Rutgers
2024: 7-6, 4-5.
2025 regular-season prediction: 5-7, 2-7.
THE SCARLET KNIGHTS no longer can ride Kyle Monangai, who led the Big Ten in carries last season. That Monangai might make a surprisingly good pro someday.
14. Michigan State
2024: 5-7, 3-6.
2025 regular-season prediction: 5-7, 2-7.
THE SPARTANS were blown out in five of six Big Ten losses last season. They still have tons of catching up to do.
15. Wisconsin
2024: 5-7, 3-6.
2025 regular-season prediction: 4-8, 2-7.
THE BADGERS might be favored in a whopping three of their games. Oh, how times have changed. Have fun at Alabama on Sept. 13, fellas!
16. UCLA
2024: 5-7, 3-6.
2025 regular-season prediction: 2-10, 1-8.
THE BRUINS were a fairly strong 3-3 over the second half of last season, and they’ve added big-name transfer QB Nico Iamaleava. Sometimes, though, things just don’t come together.
17. Maryland
2024: 4-8, 1-8.
2025 regular-season prediction: 4-8, 1-8.
THE TERRAPINS’ young players clashed with the team’s veterans last season — with NIL dollars at the root of it, coach Mike Locksley told the Sun-Times — and that sort of dysfunction can leave ugly scars.
18. Purdue
2024: 1-11, 0-9.
2025 regular-season prediction: 2-10, 0-9.
THE BOILERMAKERS lost ’em all in league play last season. Why stop now?