The Blackhawks enter the 2025 NHL Draft lottery in the exact same position as last year but with a different rooting interest.
After finishing second-to-last in the league standings for the second consecutive season, the Hawks are guaranteed a top-four pick. They’ll find out in the lottery — which the NHL is conducting live in-studio for the first time at 6 p.m. Monday on ESPN — which of those four picks they’ll receive.
The Sharks yet again have the best odds of winding up No. 1 at 25.5%, while the Hawks yet again have the second-best odds at 13.5%, followed by the Predators at 11.5%, Flyers at 9.5% and Bruins at 8.5%.
If the Hawks don’t get the No. 1 pick, they have a 14.1% chance of winning the No. 2 pick, a 30.7% chance of dropping to the No. 3 pick and a 41.7% chance of falling to the No. 4 pick.
For several reasons, however, the Hawks likely would be better off getting the No. 2 pick than the No. 1 pick — although the odds are they won’t get either.
Defenseman Matthew Schaefer is considered the top prospect, but the next handful of players are all forwards, including consensus No. 2 prospect Michael Misa.
The Hawks need another elite forward prospect much more than they need another elite defensive prospect. They’re already loaded with the latter.
Moreover, if the Hawks win the No. 1 pick, they wouldn’t be allowed to move up in either of the next two years. By rule, teams can’t move up more than twice in a five-year span. In 2023, the Hawks moved up in the lottery from third-to-last in the league to No. 1 and drafted Connor Bedard.
Although they’re not planning to continue being a bottom-five team, every non-playoff team is entered into the lottery, and even having a slim chance of getting lucky in 2026 or 2027 would be nice.
Beyond Misa — a 6-1 Ontario native who led the Ontario Hockey League with 134 points in 65 games this season — the other top forward prospects include Porter Martone, James Hagens, Anton Frondell and Caleb Desnoyers.