Fears of the reintroduction of conscription in Britain are mounting after Volodymyr Zelensky warned against Russian plans to unleash another ‘big war’ on Europe’in 2029 or 2030’.
The UK government has previously ruled out mobilising civilians to boost the Armed Forces – but Cabinet Office minister Pat McFadden admitted that decisions may be needed in the future to respond to the ‘new reality’ in the continent.
Paul O’Neill, the former head of people strategy for the Ministry of Defence, conscription will not be reintroduced unless there is a long-term conflict.
He told Metro he was ‘extremely confident’ that UK citizens would not be drafted in any ceasefire deal between Ukraine and Russia, in which Nato troops would be sent in a peacekeeping role.
The ‘prospect of a sustained war where Nato seeks to endure against Russia’, and nuclear weapons are out of the question, is the only scenario in which O’Neill believes conscription is likely to occur.
He said: ‘The argument for conscription is that it provides human mass in long-term conflicts.
‘But the number of troops Nato can provide through regular and reserve units is massively more than Russia without [needing] conscription.’
O’Neill said this figure is between five and six times more than Vladimir Putin’s forces.
He added: ‘In which case, what do you need conscription for? We are better off building up our volunteer forces. We don’t have to match Russia’s numbers because of Nato.’
A ‘better solution’ would be to recruit greater numbers of volunteer reserves, whom the Armed Forces can train and develop for longer, and in return have higher quality troops who want to soldier, the expert added.
The expert added that he was ‘sceptical about it being a viable option’ because it would be a logistical nightmare.
All conscripts would have to be found weapons, uniforms and accommodation – and be provided training, which O’Neill said would be shorter due to the need to mobilise more urgently.
And it would also impact the economy, he added, due to lower productivity.
Earlier this year, a poll from Ipsos showed that almost half (48%) of Britons say they are no circumstances where they would be willing to take up arms for the country, while 35% think there are.
However, 42% of those aged 18-34 say there are circumstances where they would be willing to take up arms, compared with 28% of 35-54-year-olds and 36% of those aged 55-75.
There is an even bigger gender divide, with 49% of men saying they would be willing to serve compared with 21% of women.
Get in touch with our news team by emailing us at webnews@metro.co.uk.
For more stories like this, check our news page.