The forecast wasn’t exactly a complicated one, but Nik Bonitto nailed it all the same.
He did the equivalent of putting your finger in your mouth briefly and then holding it up in the air to determine which way the breeze is blowing.
This wind, it just so happens, is driving the price for edge rushers higher. And higher. And higher.
“The edge market, it’s just going to keep going up and up with the guys that are still needing to be signed,” Bonitto said recently. “And just the position that I’m in (is advantageous) — whether it was last year, or the confidence I feel I’m going to put myself in this year.”
The latest push came in the form of a historic, earthquake of a pre-Week 1 trade Thursday when Dallas sent All-Pro Micah Parsons to Green Bay for multiple first-round picks and defensive tackle Kenny Clark.
The Packers, in turn, worked out a reported four-year deal worth $188 million that comes with $120 million guaranteed. It makes Parsons, already on a Hall-of-Fame career arc at 26 years old, the highest-paid non-quarterback in NFL history.
Not only that, but the average annual value of $47.2 million and the guarantee number both blow the roof off the top of the edge rusher market, though there are still particulars about the deal that haven’t been fully reported.
Regardless of exactly where the numbers shake out, though, Parsons’ deal can only mean good things for edge rushers in line to be paid soon.
Bonitto, entering the final year of his rookie contract at 25, is right near the front of that line.
Parsons’ deal doesn’t represent an apples-to-apples comparison for Bonitto — Parsons is already a two-time first-team All-Pro with unique versatility and four 12-sack seasons — as much as it makes for a clear picture of the edge rusher landscape within which Bonitto’s team and the Broncos will negotiate.
That landscape has changed considerably over the course of the offseason.
In March, Las Vegas’ Maxx Crosby ($35.5 million per year), Danielle Hunter (one year added at $35.6 million) and Myles Garrett ($40 million per year) each signed essentially top-of-the-market extensions.
Then, in July, Pittsburgh gave T.J. Watt $41 million per year and $108 million fully guaranteed.
Earlier this week, the bitter standoff between Cincinnati and Trey Hendrickson ended when the sides agreed to a one-year deal worth $29 million that can inch up a bit from there.
It all adds up to this: A year ago, no player categorized as an edge rusher by OvertheCap made more than Nick Bosa’s $34 million per year, and he was the league’s only $29-plus million edge. Now five make more, and there are seven at $29 million-plus. The guarantees vary player to player, as do the lengths of the deals and the stage of careers that those players were in when they signed their contracts.
Further down the edge rusher pecking order, Kansas City’s George Karlaftis and Buffalo’s Greg Rousseau signed for $22 million per year and $20 million per year, respectively, this offseason.
Does all of that make Bonitto a $30 million-a-year player? A $35 million-a-year player? That’s for his agent and Denver’s front office to work out. But consider this: Entering the 2024 season, the No. 5 mark at edge sat at $25 million. Now it’s $35.5 million — a 42.2% explosion. One interesting wrinkle: Though the top of the market has gone bonkers, the No. 10 mark has only moved from $22 million to $24.5 million (11.4% increase).
Each player in the top category has considerably more NFL track record than Bonitto. Watt has 108 career sacks and six seasons of 10-plus sacks. Garrett has 102.5 career sacks and seven seasons with 10-plus sacks. Hunter has 99.5 and six, and Hendrickson — a Payton draft pick in 2017 — 77.5 and four.
Bonitto has 23 and one, last year when he racked up 13.5. Of course, Bonitto’s younger than any of those players. If a deal doesn’t get done in the next week and he gets off to a fast start to the 2025 season, his leverage will only continue to rise as free agency comes closer into view week by week.
“You understand it when you sign with a year left remaining, well, there’s a cost to that a little bit, but you gain another year of security from injury,” Payton said earlier this month. “When you sign as a free agent, that number is probably bigger.
“So those are all the decisions that weigh into the player and the organization’s mind.”
Broncos general manager George Paton was asked about negotiations with Bonitto earlier Thursday, and he didn’t say much, only that “we’ve done a good job of keeping these things quiet and respectful. We’re just going to keep it that way.”
Bonitto always seemed content waiting for the last pieces of the puzzle to come together before worrying about his own status.
Now the cards are all on the table, and the sides can get down to business. Whether a deal materializes in the coming days or — like edge Jonathon Cooper in a similar end-of-rookie-contract scenario last year — in the middle of the season, life is good for a budding star on the edge.
Want more Broncos news? Sign up for the Broncos Insider to get all our NFL analysis.