Cowboys (3-3-1) at Broncos (5-2)
When: 2:25 p.m. Sunday
Where: Empower Field at Mile High Stadium
TV/radio: CBS, 850 AM/94.1 AM
Broncos-Cowboys series: Two historical NFL franchises, and this one tilts heavily in Denver’s favor. The Broncos have a 9-4 series record in 13 all-time matchups against this NFC foe, and drubbed them 30-16 in their last meeting when outside linebacker Jonathon Cooper recorded his first two NFL sacks against Dallas QB Dak Prescott.
In the spotlight: The NFL’s ultimate boom-and-bust team comes to town
On Tuesday, Cowboys head coach Brian Schottenheimer smiled when asked about coaching offseason addition George Pickens. And WR1 CeeDee Lamb. And tight end extraordinaire Jake Ferguson. And a suddenly All-Pro-level Javonte Williams.
“Fun,” Schottenheimer said. “I mean, it really is. It’s fun.”
Want a genuine heavyweight for this Broncos defense? Look no further than Dallas, which rolls into Denver with the best offense in the league after hanging 44 on the Washington Commanders last weekend. There are no real on-paper weaknesses to this Cowboys attack. Quarterback Dak Prescott’s ability to navigate pressure has negated an at-times iffy offensive line, and Prescott’s overall play is reminding the world why he’s one of the best regular-season quarterbacks in the league. Lamb is back healthy and putting up triple-digit yardage every game. And Pickens — traded from the Steelers in May — has exploded both next to Lamb and in his absence.
During the Cowboys’ first red-zone period of OTAs in May, Schottenheimer recalled this week, Prescott lofted a ball for Pickens in the slot on a post route. Lamb, lined up next to Pickens, ran a little out and drew the safety down to him. He saw Pickens catch the TD, and Lamb thrust his hands up to the heavens, Schottenheimer described, with a Thank you.
Lamb has made three straight All-Pro teams, and yet this might be the most dangerous he’s been as a receiver. Defenses can no longer key in on him, with the hyper-athletic Pickens also on the field. The Cowboys’ lethal play-action game, helped by the emergence of Williams, adds another dimension. Ferguson is the first tight end in league history with at least 50 catches and six touchdowns through seven weeks. This is easily the stiffest test Denver’s defense has faced all year.
Pat Surtain II, who’s made a living this season frustrating No. 1 wideouts, will likely draw the Lamb assignment for the first time in his career (he didn’t shadow Lamb much when Denver played the Cowboys in 2021). That’ll leave Moss on an island against Pickens. And one couldn’t construct a receiver in a lab more perfectly positioned to take advantage of Moss’ weaknesses.
Pickens stands 6-foot-3; Moss is 6-foot-0. Pickens leads the NFL in receiving yards against press coverage; Moss got toasted by the Eagles’ DeVonta Smith in Week 6 when attempting to press. Pickens has a penchant for drawing defensive pass-interference calls; Moss has a penchant for drawing defensive pass-interference calls.
“George, I think, leads the league right now in yards gained because of pass-interference penalties, and people still continue to play him one-on-one, and we still continue to throw the ball up to him,” Schottenheimer said. “So usually, good things are going to happen.”
All these factors lend themselves to a Week 8 barnburner, and a Broncos win could hinge on a couple of factors: If the defense can generate key negative plays at opportune times and if the offense can play a consistent four quarters. Quarterback Bo Nix has spent seven weeks shifting between cruise-control and sport mode, but has a chance at a signature game against Dallas.
The two best offenses in the league thus far in 2025? The Cowboys, and whoever’s playing the Cowboys. Dallas has given up the most passing yards in the league, and their secondary surrenders lots of open windows. If Nix finds a rhythm early — something he’s struggled to do all season — watch out.
“It’s just important that we start faster, and we just have to find a way to do it,” Nix said. “It’s easier said than done. We just have to literally go out there and take the game at the beginning and not have to win it in the end.”
On paper, the Cowboys have more bullets than the Broncos. The Cowboys also don’t have a corner playing at the level of Surtain or Moss.
“Like any competitor, you want to go against some of the best,” Moss said. “And we’re going to get that this week.”
Who has the edge?
When Broncos run: Time and time again, Sean Payton has defibrillated his offense by simply giving the ball to J.K. Dobbins. A 32-yard pop on the Broncos’ first scoring drive of the game Sunday got Denver and Bo Nix going, and Dobbins has shown no signs of letting up as a workhorse, now sitting at seventh in the NFL in rushing yards (523). The Cowboys sit at third in the NFL in total yards allowed per game on the ground and third in the most rushes of 10-plus yards allowed, setting the stage for a big game for Dobbins. Edge: Broncos
When Broncos pass: If Payton can get Nix going as a true drop-back threat early, this is his chance for a signature game. The Cowboys just cannot cover consistently. Then again, the Broncos haven’t shown the ability to throw the ball consistently. Former All-Pro Dallas corner Trevon Diggs’ play has fallen off a cliff this season, and the Cowboys have gotten torched for a league-leading 10 touchdowns on throws of 20-plus yards. Time for Nix to dust off the cannon. Slight edge: Broncos
When Cowboys run: Welcome back, Javonte Williams. This, though, is an entirely different Javonte Williams. The guy who couldn’t turn the corner at the end of his Bronco days? Gone. In his place is a true home-run threat, as Williams has shown no signs of letting up in a 592-yard, six-touchdown effort on the ground through seven games. He’s averaging 5.3 yards a carry, a full yard more than any of his four seasons with the Broncos. Watch out. Slight edge: Cowboys
When Cowboys pass: This is the most dangerous quarterback and passing game the Broncos have seen thus far. Dak Prescott has tortured secondaries all year when No. 1 wideout CeeDee Lamb and new No. 1A George Pickens are healthy. It’s the best receiving tandem Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss have faced this season, and Pickens presents a rough challenge for Moss in particular. Denver’s underneath coverage, too, looked plenty vulnerable against the Giants last week. Slight edge: Cowboys
Special teams: The Cowboys have done next to nothing in the punt-return game, in large part because their defense has done next to nothing in actually getting opposing teams to punt. Kicker Brandon Aubrey is 15 of 15 on the year, though, and has nailed all five of his tries from 50-plus yards. The Broncos might get a slight boost here this week if All-Pro specialist J.T. Gray is ready to go. Edge: Broncos
Coaching: It’s been a rough couple of years for Matt Eberflus, who was kicked to the curb last year as Chicago’s head coach and now has struggled to pull the Cowboys’ unit together as the defensive coordinator in Dallas. Head coach Brian Schottenheimer is an offensive mastermind, but is sitting in his first year of head-coaching experience. This would all tilt in the Broncos’ favor, but Payton hasn’t shown the ability to consistently unstick his offense from the mud, and defensive coordinator Vance Joseph didn’t have a great day last Sunday. Slight edge: Broncos
Tale of the tape
| Broncos | Cowboys | |
|---|---|---|
| Total offense | 347.0 (11th) | 390.6 (1st) |
| Rush offense | 131.9 (6th) | 122.1 (13th) |
| Pass offense | 215.1 (T-15th) | 268.4 (2nd) |
| Points per game | 23.3 (17th) | 31.7 (2nd) |
| Total defense | 273.1 (3rd) | 401.6 (32nd) |
| Run defense | 93.3 (9th) | 141.3 (30th) |
| Pass defense | 179.9 (6th) | 260.3 (32nd) |
| Points allowed | 18.1 (4th) | 29.4 (30th) |
By the numbers
57.3: Percentage of passes attempted against the Cowboys that have gone to an “open” receiver (three or more yards of separation), the highest in the league, according to Next Gen Stats.
139.8: Dak Prescott’s quarterback rating on play-action looks this year.
0: Interceptions by Broncos corners this year.
390: Javonte Williams’ rushing yards after contact this season, the fourth-highest total in the NFL.
77.7: Bo Nix’s quarterback rating in the first quarter this season.
104.0: Bo Nix’s quarterback rating in the fourth quarter this season.
X-factors
Broncos: WR Troy Franklin. Franklin caught just 3 of his 10 targets against the Giants last week. On paper, he profiles as the Broncos’ best option for a take-the-top-off explosive pass play. In reality, he’s caught just 8 of 28 total targets this season on throws longer than 10 yards. He and Nix struggled, in particular, to connect on a couple of deep scramble drills against New York. This could be the week for a big Franklin play.
Cowboys: TE Jake Ferguson. Giants tight ends went for a combined six catches for 154 yards and two touchdowns against the Broncos last Sunday. Now Ferguson enters the mix, a big body who’s fourth in the league in catches this season with 51 in seven games. He’s only averaging 6.5 yards a catch, but is a massive red-zone threat with six scores. The Broncos’ linebackers have been burned there several times this year.
Post predictions
Parker Gabriel, Broncos writer: Cowboys 28, Broncos 24
The Broncos’ performances offensively and in the penalty department have been enough to engineer fourth-quarter comebacks against Philadelphia and the two New York teams the past three weeks. Those three are, in order, 14th, 27th and 18th in scoring so far this season. Dallas is second. They’ve got two elite receivers, a resurgent Javonte Williams, a terrific and underrated tight end in Jake Ferguson and a quarterback in Dak Prescott who is playing at an MVP level. The Cowboys’ defense is bad and Denver’s is good, but all the same, a long dry spell or a continuation of the penalty plague will not end well this weekend.
Luca Evans, Broncos writer: Cowboys 31, Broncos 24
Denver’s dangled at the edge of a cliff for about three games now, and that ability to finish is both a skill and a cover-up for larger issues. The Broncos haven’t shown the ability to play a complete offensive game for — well, the entire year. Their underneath coverage got exposed against New York. Their special-teams play and general discipline are touch-and-go. Now the best offense in the league rolls into town, and Denver’s own offense hasn’t quite shown the consistent capability to win in a shootout (last Sunday notwithstanding).
Troy Renck, columnist: Broncos 27, Cowboys 24
The way the Broncos are playing is not sustainable. Puntapalooza for long stretches, blown assignments, endless penalties, all erased by magical fourth quarters. They cannot keep winning this way. But they should not have to against the Cowboys. Dallas averages 41.3 points and 441 yards at home, 24.5 and 353 on the road. And for Dallas, D has been optional. If the Broncos cannot find traction against this group, then sound the alarm. A Broncos cornerback will post an interception for the first time this season, Javonte Williams will find no room to run, and Bo Nix will rediscover the middle of the field with Evan Engram.
Sean Keeler, columnist: Broncos 25, Dallas 23
The Broncos are the NFL’s ultimate Rorschach test. Are they good? Are they lucky? They’ve stumbled and bumbled, but they’re 5-2. When the offense stinks in London, the D bails them out. When the D struggles vs. the Giants, the offense catches fire. Belief is a heck of a thing. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are 1-3 on the road, where they’re averaging 24.5 points per game, and where old pal Javonte Williams sometimes looks mortal. Sean Payton is 5-1 against NFC opponents at Empower Field, and 3-0 vs. NFC foes at home in October. It’s OK to sweat the details, given the last two weekends of weirdness. Just don’t sleep on the trends.
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