Denver Post Broncos writer Parker Gabriel posts his Broncos Mailbag weekly during the season and periodically during the offseason. Click here to submit a question.
What letter grade do you give Bo Nix for his NFL debut?
— Ed Helinski, Auburn, N.Y.
Hey Ed, thanks for the question and for getting us going this week. Individual player grades are tough because, from the outside, you don’t know exactly what the player is being coached to do or how every single thing is designed and intended. So with that relatively substantial caveat, let’s say C-.
I saw the game live, obviously, have watched it back a couple of times, asked Sean Payton about Nix’s performance, talked to some people who know what they’re talking about and also listened to or watched a few analyst types give their impressions, too.
Payton, unsurprisingly, is the most bullish on Nix’s debut and ultimately his opinion matters far more than anybody else’s. He also has the most reason to be protective of Nix given that, obviously, he’s the rookie’s coach and he’s not going to be too harsh publicly even if Nix is getting coached hard behind closed doors.
All of that said, you can find things to like and find reasons for concern. Mostly, you chalk it up to being the first time he’s ever played against a starting NFL defense. There’s a reason we make the caveats during the preseason when it’s all going smoothly. The regular season is just different. Everybody will tell you preseason is one speed, regular season another and then the postseason hits yet another gear.
No argument from me on Payton’s contention that Nix stayed in the fight, kept playing and kept competing. Nix said he didn’t have a lot of nerves, though at times he looked like he was rushed. Obviously, there were some accuracy issues and a handful of bad decisions. His receivers could have made more plays for him, but he was also fortunate that Seattle only hung on to two interceptions.
It felt to me (again, just a guy watching) like Nix would have had a pretty substantial uptick in efficiency had several of his throws been out a beat quicker. There’s a difference between being quick with the ball and being rushed. It wouldn’t have solved every problem, but certainly a few. That’s something he was excellent at in college and through training camp. So, first game nerves or is there a longer adjustment to the speed of the game?
More context: Passing numbers around the league were down compared to previous Week 1s and the other two rookies who started, No. 1 pick Caleb Williams and No. 2 pick Jayden Daniels, struggled, too.
Here we are again, year after year. Why can’t this team throw the ball down the field regardless of who the quarterback or coach is?
— Zakk, Philadelphia
Hey Zakk, yeah, this is another on the list of things to watch with Nix going forward. On Sunday he was 2 of 12 for 42 yards and two interceptions on throws that went more than 10 yards downfield in the air. That’s no way to make a living offensively.
Payton’s system is predicated more on rhythm and timing than it is on constantly chucking the ball down the field, but you have to be able to do at least a little bit of everything. On Sunday it felt as though Seahawks defenders played without any fear that the ball was going over their heads. They played top-down, rallied to the football and had a really good afternoon tackling. That’s a good recipe against anybody, but particularly against Nix and the Broncos until they give defenses a reason to feel threatened. That’s not just on the quarterback. That’s Nix, the receivers, the offensive line and the play-caller.
Parker, so many of our pass plays went to receivers who were behind the line of scrimmage. Why?! It makes no sense to try and move the ball forward if we’re constantly starting 2 yards behind the line of scrimmage. Look at some of these numbers: Devaughn Vele had eight catches for 39 yards, Jaleel McLaughlin had five catches for, let me check my notes, ONE yard?! We need better play-calling next week.
— Mike, Denver
Yeah, Mike, this pairs with the question above in terms of tracking Nix’s progress this year. On the one hand, it’s silly to jump to any kind of grand conclusions after one game — especially a rookie’s first start on the road. It’s perfectly fair to point out, though, that the same things people wondered about Nix coming out of Oregon showed up in his first NFL start.
Driving the ball down the field? He didn’t do that consistently. He misfired on several, had pressure impact a couple and also threw a beauty of a back-shoulder ball to Josh Reynolds 25 yards to the field side.
Depth of target? Payton made a point of saying they stripped all those throws out from his Oregon days to evaluate his downfield ability. Well, they put those throws back in for the Week 1 plan. Nix, according to Pro Football Focus, threw 28.1% of his attempts in 2023 behind the line of scrimmage and 66.9% within 9 yards of the line of scrimmage.
In his debut Sunday, those numbers were 21% behind the line of scrimmage (25% if you include two backward passes that went in the books as runs) and 71.4% within 9 yards of the line of scrimmage. So, one more time for clarity’s sake: It’s one game. But it’s worth watching.
Hello Parker! I know Bo Nix will be the talk of the week, but can we please forget about him for a moment? The game and especially the second half felt all too familiar. There was no urgency, again we started the second half completely flat, beginning with a three-and-out, getting run over and unable to make adjustments. Sound familiar? For all the moves made in the offseason in order to stop the run, Seattle still managed 146 yards on the ground while we couldn’t break the 100-yard mark even with 35 by the QB. Sean Payton again talked about doing a better job calling run plays, but there is gonna be a point where either you can do it, or you can’t. Or just won’t. Bo Nix was bad, but the coaching staff didn’t show any improvement from last season. Isn’t it the most worrisome part?
— Yoann, Beine-Nauroy, France
Astute observations, Yoann. When Seattle edge rusher Boye Mafe ripped inside TE Adam Trautman and jumbo TE Matt Peart and stuffed Jaleel McLaughlin for minus-4 on the first play of the second half, I thought, “Oh, I’ve seen this movie before.”
Payton mentioned the third quarter multiple times postgame and on Monday — for good reason. Denver was up 13-9 at the break and by the end of the third they were one play from falling behind 26-13. Seattle had 10 first downs in the quarter compared to one for Denver. Seattle rushed 12 times for 88 yards in the third quarter and Denver rushed five times for 11.
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As we wrote earlier this week, it’s the eighth time in 18 games under Payton that the Broncos have failed to crack 100 rushing yards in a game. And that, as you point out, is despite Nix rushing for 35. Denver’s got to figure out what it wants to be in the run game and really commit to it. And, of course, it has to stop the run. The defense looked good in that department early but finished with 146 yards (4.4 per carry) allowed.
For the most part, our defense looked pretty good on Sunday. I mean, we had two safeties in the first half, for goodness sake. But it felt like every time they stopped Seattle, our offense was unable to do anything. What can we expect from that side of the ball against Pittsburgh?
— Marshall, Parker
Yeah, not only that, Marshall, but the Alex Singleton interception set up the offense at Seattle’s 20-yard line right off the bat. That kind of defensive performance is going to put you in the driver’s seat of a game more times than not. Still, the second half got rough pretty quickly. The Seahawks’ rookie coaching staff and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb made good adjustments and started getting it going against Vance Joseph’s defense in the second half. Perhaps a bit of an oversimplification, but the game featured two bad offenses in the first half and one bad offense in the second half.
As for the Denver defense against Pittsburgh, it should feel like it can generate a good outing. The home crowd won’t hurt. And the Steelers in Week 1 didn’t generate a touchdown despite beating Atlanta 18-10. If Justin Fields starts again in place of Russell Wilson, consider that he rushed the ball 14 times in Week 1. Pittsburgh had 28 drop-backs and 38 designed runs.
Remember last year in Week 4, Denver was 0-3 going to Chicago and coming off the 70-20 loss at Miami when Fields started 23 of 24 for 285 yards and four touchdowns before the Broncos came back and won. Can’t imagine there’s a reprise of that performance coming. Or at least the Broncos had better hope not.
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