Denver Post Broncos writer Parker Gabriel posts his Broncos Mailbag weekly during the season and periodically during the offseason. Click here to submit a question.
How’s our cap situation looking? Do you think we’ll add another big name after the draft?
— Marshall, Parker
Hey Marshall, thanks for writing in and getting us going on draft week.
Good question. The Broncos are currently showing $17.4 million in cap space per NFL Players Association data and slightly less ($16.5 million) according to OvertheCap. That’s more than originally projected because of the unique way they structured safety Talanoa Hufanga’s three-year deal and also because they created $4 million in cap space by making a simple conversion of bonus money with outside linebacker Jonathon Cooper.
They’ll use about $4 million in cap space to sign their draft class — assuming they pick relatively near their current assigned slots — and then yes, they’ll have some room to work with.
Will they sign a big name? That’s not super likely.
One thing to keep in mind on the trade front: They’ve acquired a veteran during each of the past two drafts. In 2023, it was tight end Adam Trautman and then last year, defensive lineman John Franklin-Myers. Certainly not impossible that they explore that route again, though most likely on Day 3. If Denver doesn’t come out of the draft with a tight end, maybe they’d ask Philly about Dallas Goedert or Baltimore about Mark Andrews. Seemingly less likely, but Miami and Green Bay have made it pretty clear they’re listening on star cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and Jaire Alexander, respectively.
The more plausible scenario is that Denver will retain its cap space, sign its class, and then get to work on some extensions that are coming down the pipe.
In fact, Denver is likely to create more 2025 space if and when it signs WR Courtland Sutton and DL Zach Allen to extensions. Even if both of those players get big money up front and end up with average annual contract values somewhere in the mid-$20 millions, they’re likely to reduce their 2025 cap hits. Currently, Sutton counts $20.2 million for 2025 and Allen $19.8 million. The Broncos could also come out slightly net positive for 2025 if they signed Franklin-Myers to an extension — he has a $10 million cap hit for 2025 — while outside linebacker Nik Bonitto’s cap number might rise from $5.7 million with an extension, but not by leaps and bounds.
All of this is to say that Denver has flexibility in how it goes about its business from here. But there’s also this to keep in mind: The Broncos have rolled over very little cap space the past two years — $1.4 million to 2024 and $1.9 million to this year — in large part because of the massive dead cap charges they took on by cutting Russell Wilson and other veterans.
Any player who gets an extension between now and the season isn’t going to have a big number on the 2025 cap, but he will take up a lot of space in future years. So the Broncos appear to be planning for that by putting themselves on a path to get back to rolling over a healthy chunk of cap space.
Hey Parker, this isn’t a Broncos question, but where do you think Shedeur Sanders is going to land? Travis Hunter seems like a guaranteed top-three pick, but Sanders is being projected all over the first round (and occasionally the second round).
— Victor G., Parker
Hey Victor, terrific question. Sanders is in many ways the pivot point to the entire draft and he’s probably the single most interesting storyline. It wouldn’t be a shock to see the New York Giants take him at No. 3. They’ve done a ton of work on him, including multiple visits to Boulder.
In recent days, however, the buzz seems to be pointing toward him falling past the top three. If he does, then who knows? Could the Jets and new general manager Darren Mougey pull a stunner at No. 7? New Orleans at No. 9? Does he go all the way to Pittsburgh at No. 21? Or even past that to the point where either the Giants, Cleveland or somebody else feels like he’ll be there either at the very end of the first round or the top of the second?
From a Denver perspective, the Broncos would be happy if he started to get toward Pittsburgh at No. 21 and other teams felt motivated to jump over the Steelers. That might put the Broncos in position to gain capital, move back a bit and do damage on Day 2.
There’s also been reporting around the league that it’s possible another quarterback from the class — most likely Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart, Alabama’s Jalen Milroe or Louisville’s Tyler Shough — goes before Sanders. I’m certainly not an expert quarterback evaluator, but let’s put it on the record anyway: A team that goes that route will regret it. Sanders is the second-best quarterback in this class and he’s got a better chance of having the best pro career of the group than he does of having the fourth or fifth-best. Freezing Cold Takes, get at me.
Now, all that said, it’s unclear to me whether any of these guys would have gone above any of the six first-rounders last year. Just one more reason for the Broncos — and Broncos fans — to be thrilled with landing Bo Nix in 2024.
I’ve got a first-round mock draft running in The Post in Thursday’s section as part of our first-round preview. A foolhardy task if ever there was one. I’ll say here that I have Sanders in the first round… but going in the second half.
Are seven draft picks too few, too many or the right amount for the Broncos?
— Ed Helinski, Auburn, N.Y.
Yo Ed, I love this question. Normally, the answer is easy: too few. The more picks, the better. That’s the George Paton way.
Something that ESPN’s Adam Schefter wrote the other day caught my attention, though, and got me thinking about this very topic. He suggested it could be a particularly strong college free agent class after the draft and that makes sense as the last of the COVID-era extra eligibility backlog finally starts to work its way to the league.
The Broncos are good at recruiting college free agents. Coach Sean Payton and Paton are good salesmen, it’s an attractive city and the Broncos are an organization with a reputation that’s on the rise. The roster’s going to be tougher to crack this year than two years ago, but plenty of agents will be telling their guys that Denver’s a solid option. Doesn’t hurt that the club has been willing to dish out pretty solid guarantees to the guys they want, too.
Consider that and then combine it with the fact that Denver doesn’t have a fifth-round pick and that Paton said last week he thinks the strength of the draft is in the middle rounds. That all sounds to me like a recipe for using Denver’s three sixth-rounders either packaged together to get up into the fifth round or tacked on to other picks to try to slide up the order in earlier rounds. Not to say they won’t take anybody in the sixth, but if Nos. 191 and 197 got you into the fifth round or one of those picks helped you move up a few spots from No. 122, that seems sensible. Paton might not want to go all the way down to five picks, but if the Broncos ended up with six and spent the final 70 selections recruiting free agents on the phone, that could be a very productive Saturday.
Denver enters the draft with 71 players under contract, though they can always make a couple of moves at the bottom of the roster if needed. That means six or seven draft picks and then room for a free agent class of a dozen or so before they’re bumping up against a full 90-man roster. Feels about right.
I heard that TreVeyon Henderson visited the Broncos recently. I feel like No. 20 is too high to pick him. Do you think he’ll still be available when we pick again in the second?
— Mike, Denver
Hey Mike, thanks for writing in. He did indeed visit the Broncos on April 16, the final day teams were allowed to host visitors.
I do think he’ll be available at No. 20, but not at 51. It’s not even a sure bet he’ll be there at 20. He’s got the kind of skillset that will be attractive to a lot of teams.
In terms of whether No. 20 is too high to take him, there are a couple of factors. The main is that many evaluators think this draft is light on true, top-of-the-board premium talent. Remember: Just because there are 32 picks in the first round doesn’t mean teams have 32 players graded as first-round talents. This year, the number of true first-round grades for many teams seems to be slightly to solidly below average.
Paton said last week that he thinks there is a group of players who have similar grades that will go from 10 or so onward. So that means Denver thinks it’ll get a player at No. 20 that has a similar grade to the player they might have picked at No. 11.
Here’s an interesting note from NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah. He was actually discussing potential Broncos trade scenarios on a conference call last week and brought up running back rankings and the depth in the class. He’s got North Carolina RB Omarion Hampton as his No. 13 overall player in the class, Henderson No. 32 and Ohio State teammate Quinshon Judkins at No. 38. That’s a big gap between running backs, right?
Actually: “To me there’s not much difference between Quinshon Judkins’ grade and where I have him … vs. the 13th player on the list,” Jeremiah said. “There’s not tremendous drop-off there.”
What I wanted to ask him and didn’t get a chance is if he’s got a bigger gap between Ashton Jeanty at No. 3 and Hampton at No. 13 than between No. 13 and 38. Don’t know for sure, but my suspicion is yes. Just something to keep in mind when reading rankings. The gap between a few spots can be big or it can be small. Evaluators seem to think this class has a big glut of similar players between, say, 15 and 40 or even further down.
If that’s the case, then take the player you love in the spot you’re picking and don’t waste capital moving up unless you absolutely have to. Or unless you can go all the way into the top 10 for a blue-chip guy.
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