Raiders (2-6) at Broncos (7-2)
When: Thursday, 6:15 p.m.
Where: Empower Field at Mile High Stadium
Radio/TV: Prime Video, 850 AM/94.1 FM
Broncos-Raiders series: History has not favored Denver in this AFC West matchup, with the Broncos sitting at 55-72-2 in 129 meetings all-time against the Raiders. Denver won both of its matchups last year, though, as quarterback Bo Nix played great football against Las Vegas: five total touchdowns with no interceptions across two games.
In the spotlight: How do Broncos handle Brock Bowers without Pat Surtain II?
The absence of the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year is a big deal because, as safety JL Skinner put it last week, he’s Pat Surtain. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph’s recipe is usually simple enough. Stick Surtain on the opposing offense’s top one target. Wipe his hands. Presto.
It is such an effective strategy, in fact, that it works against more than just wide receivers. After Raiders tight end Brock Bowers shredded Denver for eight catches and 97 yards in their first matchup last season, Joseph put Surtain on him in the Broncos’ second go-around in late November. Bowers had roughly two inches and 30 pounds on Surtain. Didn’t matter. Bowers finished with just four catches for 38 yards on 10 targets, and the Broncos dispatched the Raiders 29-19.
This matchup will be decidedly more difficult on Thursday night with Bowers chugging at full speed and the Broncos’ secondary scrambling in Surtain’s absence.
“His healthiest and best game was last week,” Joseph said of Bowers. “Unfortunately for us.”
Indeed, after a three-game absence due to a knee injury, Bowers returned for Las Vegas in an overtime loss to the Jaguars on Sunday and went nuclear: 12 catches, 127 yards and three touchdowns. He hadn’t been fully healthy since Week 1, and the Raiders’ offense suffered because of it. In Pete Carroll’s return to NFL head-coaching, Las Vegas designed much of its attack around two-tight-end sets with Bowers and third-year tight end Michael Mayer. That fell by the wayside without Bowers available.
“I don’t think it could be more obvious how valuable Brock was to us yesterday,” Carroll said Monday.
That value showed up most with veteran quarterback Geno Smith, who looked lost for much of the season. Smith has an NFL-leading 11 picks in eight games, and slumped in a 31-0 loss to Kansas City two weeks ago. With Bowers back against Jacksonville, though, he looked every bit the part of his two-time Pro Bowl self from back in Seattle, finishing 29 of 39 for 284 yards, four touchdowns and an interception.
“It seems like everybody gets a little more open when (Brock’s) out there,” Carroll said. “We know that Geno can throw like that and can perform like that — it’s kinda what we’ve been counting on. Unfortunately, it hasn’t been as consistent as we needed it to be.”
If the consistency continues into Week 10, it spells trouble for Denver. There is no good answer for the 6-foot-4 Bowers, a player who’s a nightmare to tackle and combines the speed of a wide receiver with the size of a tight end. Cornerbacks Riley Moss and Ja’Quan McMillian did a solid job on Texans No. 1 receiver Nico Collins last week, but might not have the frame to shadow Bowers. Kris Abrams-Draine is even skinnier. Linebackers Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad aren’t quick enough.
The answer might be rookie Jahdae Barron, who started at outside corner in place of Surtain in Week 8 and rotated both inside and out. Barron has flashed the ability in heavy-DB packages to shadow tight ends, and has the toughness and skill as a tackler to grapple with Bowers. On the year, he’s allowed four catches in eight targets for 74 yards and a TD to tight ends.
“He’s getting better every game,” Skinner said of Barron last week.
Safeties Brandon Jones and Talanoa Hufanga will also be important for Joseph, as both played key roles in coverage against the Texans in Surtain’s absence. There are fewer overall threats for the Broncos to pay attention to against Las Vegas after the Raiders traded away No. 1 WR Jakobi Meyers on Tuesday. When Bowers makes a play, Hufanga and Jones will need to be there as tacklers at the second and third level.
“Having a great plan to kind of get him rerouted early and just keep the coverage top down on him,” Joseph said, “is going to be important to win the game.”
Who has the edge?
When Broncos run: This is a definite strength for an overall middle-of-the-road Raiders defense, as Las Vegas has held opposing teams to just 3.9 yards per carry, tied for sixth-best in the NFL. Linebacker Devin White has had a terrific year with 80 tackles through eight games, and edge star Maxx Crosby is a nightmare against the run. The Broncos’ ground game slowed up a bit last week against a fantastic Houston defense, but J.K. Dobbins still ran for 61 yards, and left guard Alex Palczewski should be healthy after playing through illness last week. Slight edge: Broncos
When Broncos pass: Who knows anymore? Nix finished an abysmal 18-of-37 passing for 173 yards on Sunday against Houston, but left a number of throws on the table. There’s a softer matchup here, as all five Las Vegas defensive backs who have over 100 snaps have surrendered north of a 100.0 quarterback rating when targeted. If tackles Garett Bolles and Mike McGlinchey can hold off Crosby, Nix has a chance to right the ship. Slight edge: Broncos
When Raiders run: Rookie first-round RB Ashton Jeanty has been all over the place this year, from not receiving much offensive-line help early on to a breakout in a loss to the Bears to a slump ever since. Overall, Jeanty has averaged under four yards a carry in six out of eight games. He still can go if he gets a crease, though, averaging 5.6 yards a carry on runs outside the tackles. It’s a good matchup, but Denver’s defensive line just decimated Houston’s ground game. Edge: Broncos
When Raiders pass: Here’s where things get interesting. On the surface, veteran Las Vegas QB Geno Smith hasn’t been great this year. But with Brock Bowers finally back healthy against Jacksonville last week, the Raiders looked like they finally hit warp speed under Pete Carroll. The Broncos have had problems with tight ends all year, and Las Vegas has enough weapons outside Bowers — particularly with Denver missing Pat Surtain II — to challenge Vance Joseph’s secondary. Edge: Even
Special teams: There’s absolutely no faith in Denver’s punt or kick-return units at the moment after a punt muff, coverage breakdown and multiple penalties last week against the Texans. Punter Jeremy Crawshaw just put on a masterclass against Houston, though, and kicker Wil Lutz has nailed two game-winning field goals in the last three weeks. Raiders returner Raheem Mostert is actually leading the NFL in average yards per kickoff return, so watch out there. Slight edge: Raiders
Coaching: As Sean Payton said in August: Would he have rather had Andy Reid, Jim Harbaugh and now Carroll in other divisions? Sure. But “that’s the way it turned out.” Carroll is an all-time great, and he had his share of head-to-head matchups with Payton back in his days with the Seahawks. But Carroll’s in the first stage of a rebuild in Las Vegas, and the Raiders just rolled over against Kansas City two weeks ago. The Broncos have managed to dodge glaring landmines en route to a 7-2 start, which counts for plenty. Edge: Broncos
Tale of the tape
| Broncos | Raiders | |
|---|---|---|
| Total offense | 347.3 (13th) | 282.3 (30th) |
| Rush offense | 133.6 (7th) | 89.1 (29th) |
| Pass offense | 213.8 (17th) | 194.1 (24th) |
| Points per game | 25.0 (14th) | 16.5 (29th) |
| Total defense | 279.9 (3rd) | 333.4 (19th) |
| Run defense | 93.1 (8th) | 109.4 (16th) |
| Pass defense | 186.8 (6th) | 224.0 (21st) |
| Points allowed | 18.4 (4th) | 26.3 (23rd) |
By the numbers
330: Snaps Las Vegas has spent in base defense (two inside linebackers) this season, the most in the NFL.
80: Raiders’ total quarterback pressures as a defense through eight games, ranking dead-last in the NFL.
6: Quarterback pressures Broncos right tackle Mike McGlinchey surrendered against the Texans in Week 8, the most given up by any Denver linemen in any game this season.
-3: Yards Raiders rookie Ashton Jeanty has gained against a stacked box this season on 13 carries.
64: Targets for second-year Broncos receiver Troy Franklin, now tied for 17th-most in the NFL.
8.7%: Percentage of time Denver rookie running back RJ Harvey has scored a touchdown when he’s touched the ball.
X-factors
Broncos: CB Ja’Quan McMillian. The nickel has been an understated but integral part of Vance Joseph’s secondary this season, and was lockdown against the Texans last week, allowing just 13 receiving yards on seven targets. Raiders quarterback Geno Smith has thrown one touchdown against four picks when targeting slot receivers this year. Feels like as good a week as any for McMillian to get his first interception of the year.
Raiders: QB Geno Smith. Obvious, but it’s anyone’s guess what version of Smith shows up to Denver on Thursday night. If this is the turnover-prone Smith who put up a 67-yard goose egg against the Chiefs two weeks ago, the Broncos will pulverize Pete Carroll’s team. If this is the version of Smith that sprays the ball around to his playmakers and threw four touchdowns against the Jaguars last week, the Raiders can hang.
Post predictions
Parker Gabriel, Broncos writer: Broncos 31, Raiders 13
Thursday Night Football games can be weird. Teams that get off to strong starts fare abnormally well. Denver … hasn’t been that. They’ve been a fourth-quarter comeback juggernaut with a minus-1 point differential the first 45 minutes of games and plus-60 mark in the fourth. But they’re also rolling, motivated and locked in. The Raiders are flailing and just traded away top receiver Jakobi Meyers. Sean Payton’s team should take care of business, then turn its attention to a Nov. 16 showdown with the Chiefs.
Luca Evans, Broncos writer: Broncos 31, Raiders 19
Feels like a good week for Sean Payton and Bo Nix to get back on track in an offensive season that’s fallen off the rails and back on again for nine straight games. The Raiders are plenty more fearsome with tight end Brock Bowers back in the mix, and this could be the week that the Broncos’ secondary caves a bit without Pat Surtain II. But Denver’s red-zone defense is just too good to let Las Vegas turn this into a shootout.
Troy Renck, columnist: Broncos 29, Raiders 10
Coach Sean Payton digs stats, uses them as motivation. He passed along this nugget this week: Per his research team, home teams that lead at halftime of Thursday night games win roughly 90 percent of the time. So maybe the Broncos will let down their hair and go to the air beyond screens and checkdowns in the first quarter. This is a get-right game for the offense and a chance for the defense to show it can do the one thing missing on the resume: get takeaways.
Sean Keeler, columnist: Broncos 30, Raiders 13
Geno Smith ranks 26th out of 36 QBs in sack rate (7.75%) among NFL signal-callers who’ve played at least 100 snaps this year. Brock Bowers will be a problem, sure, but we already know the script, don’t we? Bo Nix throws screen after screen early while Vegas jumps out to a 13-0 lead. The natives get restless with a quarter-and-a-half left. Then the Broncos go on a 30-0 spurt the rest of the way to close out the tilt. Hey, if the formula’s rocking, why change it now?
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