Cal football general manager Ron Rivera announced Sunday afternoon that “the time has come for new leadership” and dismissed coach Justin Wilcox after “careful consideration.”
Let’s dispense with the diplomatic phrasing: The time for a change came Saturday night, one second after the abysmal 31-10 loss to Stanford — a performance so horrific it defied description even for a program that has produced a string of atrocious losses over the years.
Wilcox was on fragile ground prior to that point, but the face plant on enemy ground, which followed two weeks of preparation, sealed his fate.
The Bears (6-5), who are bowl eligible with one game remaining (SMU), will conduct a national search for Wilcox’s replacement. Whether they examine every cranny of major college football for the best candidates is an issue worth monitoring.
Our thoughts on Wilcox’s tenure, the Sagapolutele situation, Rivera’s role and the crowded marketplace:
— Wilcox departs after nine seasons, with a legacy more complicated than his modest overall record (48-55) suggests.
He was the right coach to revitalize the Bears after Sonny Dykes’ termination and the ideal coach to lead the program through two years of COVID protocol insanity. (Yes, two seasons: The Bears dealt with restrictions in the fall of 2021, courtesy of Berkeley Public Health, that didn’t touch other schools.)
Cal was ascending just before COVID (an 8-5 record and Redbox Bowl victory), then needed the fall of 2022 to regroup. But with three consecutive six-win seasons since that point, Wilcox was unable to elevate the Bears to contender status in either the Pac-12 or ACC.
The bill for stagnation came due this fall, with Rivera and chancellor Rich Lyons demanding performance match the university community’s investment in NIL and revenue sharing.
“Our revenue sports need to be competitive, like so many of our other sports,” Lyons told the Hotline last winter. “Another six-win regular season (in football) will be disappointing given how much we are investing. We can’t keep investing and not deliver in our revenue sports.”
— Rivera made no secret of the bar Wilcox needed to clear, stating repeatedly that eight or nine wins and an upper-level bowl would constitute a “successful season.” Bids to the LA and Independence bowls were no longer acceptable.
Inconsistent play over the past three months was a double indictment of Wilcox given the soft schedule and ACC power vacuum. Georgia Tech, Duke and Virginia have filled a void that was available for the Bears.
Instead, they followed a time-honored trajectory under Wilcox, with a strong start and midseason fade that included a stunning shutout at San Diego State, the blowout loss to Duke on Homecoming and the hapless defensive performance at Virginia Tech, which is 3-8 and using an interim coach.
And yet Wilcox was in position to clear Rivera’s bar entering the final fortnight, thanks to the overtime upset of Louisville.
We’ll never know how the situation would have turned out if Cal had beaten Stanford, then lost to SMU. But the performance Saturday night was beyond dreadful, an abject embarrassment that dramatically raised the likelihood of termination.
— Rivera, who was hired last spring to oversee all aspects of the program, now owns the most important piece: selecting the head coach. In what might be the most competitive market in the history of the sport, he must hire someone capable of improving on Wilcox’s performance — of winning eight or nine games consistently.
Success on that level cannot be achieved without a high-functioning offense, something Wilcox struggled to produce as he churned through a series of coordinators.
Rivera’s background is on defense. Will he hire a like-minded head coach, then seek the best offensive coordinator available? Or will Rivera target coaching candidates with backgrounds on offense?
— The former approach would clear a path for the Bears to hire an alumnus, Tosh Lupoi, who grew up in Walnut Creek, played for De La Salle High School in Concord and is completing his fourth season as Oregon’s defensive coordinator.
The latter approach — hiring a head coach with offensive expertise — might better the odds of retaining the player Cal cannot afford to lose: freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who will have financial offers from a slew of blue blood programs if he enters the transfer portal.
(Those offers will come even if Sagapolutele doesn’t officially enter the portal; in college football, tampering is as ubiquitous as oxygen.)
The Bears are likely to muster the dollars needed to keep their star, but we suspect his decision will be about more than the paycheck. Sagapolutele could seek assurances that Cal will appropriately prepare him for the 2028 NFL Draft. Upgrading the surrounding talent (offensive line and receiver) is essential to that calculation. So, too, is providing coaching expertise.
Would a well-regarded offensive coordinator be enough to satisfy Sagapolutele and his inner circle? (Keeping senior offensive analyst Nick Rolovich in some capacity would undoubtedly help Cal’s cause.)
Or will Rivera feel compelled to appoint a quarterback whisperer as the head coach?
— That question leads to our next topic: Rivera’s hiring history.
His offenses across nine seasons with the Panthers were usually in the bottom half, if not the bottom quartile, of the NFL in passing. That’s not entirely attributable to having a bulldozer of a quarterback, Cam Newton, but there’s certainly a correlation.
In his four seasons in Washington, Rivera employed Scott Turner and Eric Bieniemy as offensive playcallers. The Commanders finished in the bottom half of the league in passing yards each season.
Will Rivera turn to a trusted NFL assistant or coordinator? Will he seek gray hair or youthful energy? He has been involved in college football for nine months after 40 years in the NFL. Is he familiar with the rising stars? Where will he turn for advice?
(Notably, Rivera’s quarterbacks coach in Washington in 2023 was Tavita Pritchard, the former Stanford starter who is likely under consideration for the Cardinal’s coaching vacancy. He remains employed by the Commanders.)
— The Bears are joining a coaching carousel that includes vacancies at regional schools (Stanford and UCLA), true blue bloods (LSU and Penn State), light-blue bloods (Florida and Auburn), second-tier programs (Oklahoma State, Arkansas) and third-tier schools (Colorado State, Oregon State).
The situation in California specifically is unprecedented — the Bruins, Cardinal and Bears all have interim head coaches — and reflects the immense pressure to win at the highest level possible.
Everyone wants to be ready in case a super league forms in the early-to-mid-2030s. Nobody wants to get left behind. And competitive success will be a prime determinant.
— The Bears won’t be fishing in the same seas as deep-pocketed SEC schools and might not pursue the same options as UCLA and Stanford. Don’t be surprised if they lean into the model used to find Wilcox and Jeff Tedford: Identify the hottest offensive or defensive coordinators from power conference programs.
With Lyons and Rivera committed to winning, there are fewer institutional impediments than have existed in the past. And with the transfer portal as the main source of talent acquisition, familiarity with West Coast recruiting terrain is no longer essential. But this is not the time for learning curves, not with the uncertainty of the 2030s looming and the fluid competitive balance within the ACC.
The window is open this season and maybe next. But Florida State and Clemson are always threats to control the conference, Miami is loaded with talent and Virginia Tech is positioned for a coup with newly hired James Franklin.
Cal needs to elevate immediately — that was the entire reason for firing Wilcox, after all.
The Big Game implosion made Rivera’s decision easy and obvious.
Now comes the hard part.
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline