California consumer confidence has plummeted to levels not seen since the pandemic’s economic upheaval.
My trusty spreadsheet’s review of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for California found that shopper psyche plunged 16% in November from October. This pushed the measure down to a level last seen in December 2020. Much of the index’s polling for this report took place before the 43-day shutdown ended on Nov. 12.
This Golden State optimism tally is now 25% below its average since 2007. Plus, it hit its lowest November reading since 2012, and is not the consumer buoyancy merchants would like to see during the holiday shopping rush.
Consumers juggle numerous challenges. The federal government shutdown, no matter who you blame, rattled nerves. Perhaps its resolution will revive sinking financial sentiments.
Still, the job market appears wobbly. Immigration crackdowns are unnerving a part of the population. Plus, the state government budget has another huge shortfall.
And while budget-busting inflation has decreased from its recent peak, it’s worrisome that it’s still not resolved for most shoppers’ satisfaction. The key price watchdog, the Federal Reserve, also seems more anxious about the employment picture.
Slumping slices
The California index tracks two slices of shopper sentiment, neither of which reveals much economic enthusiasm.
Its “present situation” index – measuring current conditions – dropped 11% in November to a low last seen in mid-pandemic March 2021. It’s also 10% below average.
The “expectations” index – gauging consumers’ financial outlook – was off 22% in November to its lowest level since October 2011. It’s now 37% below average.
Nationally nervous
U.S. consumers were spooked, too, but not as much as the Golden State.
The overall national confidence index was off 7% in a month to a seven-month low and is 3% below its 19-year average. This was the weakest November confidence since 2013.
The nationwide view of current conditions fell 3% in a month to its lowest since September 2024. But this yardstick remains 20% above average.
The future is murky, nationally, too. The expectations index was off 12% to a seven-month low and sits 24% below average.
Stately unease
Five of the seven other big states tracked by the Conference Board saw optimism drop – but no political pattern emerges.
Michigan: Down 22% in a month to the lowest level since June 2014 and 9% below average.
Florida: Down 15% in a month to the lowest since April 2025, but 8% above average.
Ohio: Down 10% in a month to the lowest since October 2016 and 7% below average.
Illinois: Down 8% in a month to the lowest since October 2020 and 6% below average.
Pennsylvania: Down 8% in a month to the lowest since September 2024 and 4% below average.
And the two gainers couldn’t be more different, politically speaking. For example, New York City just elected a democratic socialist as its next mayor. Texas leans conservative.
New York: Up 13% in a month and to 29% above average.
Texas: Up 9% in a month and to 2% below average.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com