California shoppers’ optimism hit a three-month low, according to new polling data.
My trusty spreadsheet’s review of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for California showed a 4% decline in this shopper psyche measurement from August to September. This index is based on consumer surveys.
Golden State confidence has declined 23% over the past year and is 9% below its average dating to 2007.
California and President Donald Trump are not a good mix, politically or economically. The new administration’s “American First” thinking sharply contrasts with California’s globally oriented business environment.
Think about the two parts that comprise this confidence index.
California’s “present situation” index – tracking impressions of current economic conditions – was off 8% for September to a five-month low. It’s off 22% year-over-year yet remains 1% above its 19-year average.
However, the future remains the biggest question mark. California’s forward-looking “expectations” index did rise 1% in a month to its highest level in seven months. But it’s down 24% in a year and is 16% below average.
Nationally nervous
The White House’s unorthodox business policies have shaken the economy statewide and nationally. The Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cut was a signal that the economy is, at best, cooling.
Nationwide polling found U.S. confidence fell 4% in a month to a five-month low and has declined 5% over the past year. However, the index is 3% above its average since 2007.
Americans have mixed feelings about today’s economy. The U.S. “present situation” yardstick is down 5% in a month to a 12-month low. Nevertheless, it’s up 1% in a year and 19% above its 19-year average.
Yet U.S. consumers also see an uneasy economic future. The “expectations” marker is down 2% in a month to a three-month low. It’s off 11% in a year and runs 11% below average.
Unsettled states
Five of the seven other states tracked experienced confidence dips for the month, ranked by the index change.
Illinois: Off 23% in September to a five-month low. It’s down 9% in a year, but 2% above the average.
Texas: Off 18% in September to the lowest since December 2020. It’s down 12% in a year but 18% below average.
Pennsylvania: Off 11% in September to a 12-month low. It’s up 4% in a year but 7% below average.
Ohio: Off 6% in September to the lowest since October 2016. It’s down 17% in a year but 2% above average.
Florida: Off 6% in September to a five-month low. It’s down 1% in a year, but 7% above average.
Michigan: Up 4% in September, off 3% in a year, and 17% above average.
New York: Up 13% in September to a five-month high. It’s up 13% in a year and 28% above average.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com