As the holiday shopping season gets into full gear, California consumers are intensively searching for deals.
I mean, they’re literally aggressively searching – online.
My trusted spreadsheet analyzed Californians’ online search habits over the past eight years through October, using Google Trends to identify the kinds of budget-conscious information they sought.
I developed the Stretched Wallet Index by analyzing search volumes for 12 phrases related to financial struggles. This index shows the combined fluctuations in searches for those budget-related terms.
California’s interest in thriftiness increased by 12% over the past year, according to the index. Now, online searches aren’t perfect indicators of consumer psyche, but this jump seems consistent with various reports of rising financial worries.
The recent uptick in these searches followed inflation reaching a four-decade high in 2020-21. The index averaged 4% annual growth from 2021 through 2024 as rising prices smacked household budgets.
This upswing runs counter to a drop in thriftiness searches when pandemic-linked shortages made availability, not price, a major consumer need. The Stretched Wallet Index averaged a 2% annual decline in 2018-21.
And it’s not just the Golden State. The national version of this index is up 11% over the past year, after a 5% average increase over the previous three years and a 3%-a-year dip in 2018-21.
Not all 12 search terms comprising the index moved in the same direction. Note their past year’s swings, ranked from the largest increases to the biggest dips, and what the moves might mean about Californians trying to make ends meet.
What’s hot
The Stretched Wallet Index’s surge was driven by jumps in searches for these eight items, which are part of this thriftiness measurement …
“Price cut” – Searches for this topic rose 30% in the past year vs. 28% nationally. It’s the main target for any bargain hunter.
“Family budget” – Searches rose 26% in a year vs. 21% nationally. When bills pile up, keeping track of family finances becomes a necessity.
“Store brands” – Searches rose 25% in a year, same as U.S. gain. One way to save on groceries is to buy the merchant’s own branded products.
“Meals at home” – Searches rose 24% in a year vs. 10% nationally. Restaurants’ soaring menu prices are prompting people to rethink where they dine.
“Credit card rates” – Searches rose 11% in a year vs. 16% nationally. This parallels the continuing growth in balances on these typically expensive borrowings.
“On sale” – Searches rose 10% in a year, same as the national increase. The need for discounts is growing.
“Food bank” – Searches rose 5% in a year but off 1% nationally. A sign that more folks are in dire straits.
“BOGO” – That’s buy-one-get-one. Searches rose 4% over the past year vs. 9% nationally. Merchants have oversued – if not abused – this discount phrase with “deals” that don’t make the “get one” free.
What’s not
The online deal hunt evolves, as shown by four terms in the index whose California searches are on the decline …
“Thrift store” – Searches down 6% in a year vs. up 1% nationally. Since second-hand shops are so ubiquitous, folks may not have to search for them. That itself would be a worrisome trend.
“Coupons” – Searches down 11% in a year vs. 9% dip nationally. That’s how your grandparents saved money.
“Free stuff” – Searches down 11% in a year vs. 8% dip nationally. Folks may have a bad impression of “free” and prefer discounted goods they’d pay for.
“Dollar store” – Searches down 13% in a year vs. flat across the U.S. A mainstay in much of the nation, the novelty in the Golden State may have dimmed. But not the need.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com
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