With their political party directionless, a charismatic, media savvy governor who works to balance progressive leanings with a practical, centrist approach, emerges as a potential contender.
Former President Bill Clinton may first come to mind as someone who meets that description. However, it is also coming to resemble Governor Gavin Newsom.
Put another way, as Democrats attempt to find their way forward, Newsom appears to be attempting to position himself as Bill Clinton reincarnate.
Having served as an advisor to former President Clinton from 1994-2000, there are noticeable similarities between his methods, and what Newsom is currently trying to emulate.
Indeed, Newsom, like the former President, has shown himself to be a strong communicator, a collaborative leader, a desire to pull the Democratic Party towards the middle, and an ability to shake off controversy to remain a political force.
Moreover, assuming Newsom does run for president in 2028, both men will have made their political moves at a time when the Democratic party was rudderless and in need of a new standard bearer.
The overarching question that remains to be seen is whether or not this will work for Newsom as it did for Clinton.
To be sure, the political environment Clinton and Newsom are living in are considerably different, potentially hurting Newsom’s attempts to recreate some of Clinton’s successes.
Bill Clinton rose to prominence as a Southern Democrat and took over a post-Reagan era Democratic party that understood the need to adopt more centrist policies.
Conversely, Newsom represents the bluest of blue states at a time when the Democratic party has moved further to the left, and during a period of deep polarization in our politics.
Of course, there are also personal differences between the two.
Whereas Clinton had a down-to-earth, almost folksy appeal, Newsom has been called an “elitist,” and he often seems like a scripted candidate, right out of central casting.
That being said, there are notable similarities, and if Newsom does succeed in winning the Democratic primary in 2028, it very well may because he followed Clinton’s roadmap.
Above all else, Clinton’s emphasis on “third way” moderate liberalism dragged the Democratic party towards the middle, particularly on the economy and fiscal policy.
As President, Clinton passed welfare reform, defanging Republican attacks on Democrats as supportive of handouts and expansive government safety nets. He also brought fiscal conservativism to the Democratic party, producing a budget surplus and overseeing the longest period of peacetime economic expansion in the country’s history.
For his part, Newsom has been making an obvious push to the center in recent months.
He’s broken with California liberals over divisive social issues such as transgender athletes and cited the need for fiscal conservatism as a reason for wanting to block illegal immigrants from using California’s taxpayer-funded healthcare system.
Further, Newsom has become more forceful in pushing back on the “defund the police” movement – he called it “lunacy on a podcast with Republican commentator Charlie Kirk – and in calling for California cities to take steps to clear homeless encampments.
To that end, the centrist-Democratic group Third Way – named for the political theory Clinton made popular – has praised Newsom’s efforts to move to the center and attempt to redefine the Democratic party.
Matt Bennett, an Executive Vice President at Third Way, went as far as to say that while democratic voters claim to want a liberal, “we marry the moderate every time.” He continued, calling Newsom’s move to the middle “smart.”
However, despite Newsom’s best efforts, there are legitimate questions as to whether or not running as a Bill Clinton-type politician will work in today’s climate.
Unlike the former President, Newsom has a long history of political positions further to the left than he now espouses, opening him up to attacks that he’s only moderating for political reasons.
Similarly, having led a state which has long struggled with an excessively bloated government, nobody would mistake Newsom for a true fiscal conservative in Clinton’s mold.
In that same vein, the 2024 election showed that Democrats are struggling with working class voters, a group Clinton excelled at speaking to, but may be turned off by Newsom’s extremely polished, elitist persona.
Finally, today’s Democratic party is not the one Clinton rose to prominence in, then led, throughout the 1980’s and 1990’s.
Then, Democrats understood the need to move to the middle on certain key issues, but currently, many in the party are doubling down on the need to move further to the left.
Now, the growing influence of progressives leaves little room for moderate candidates – assuming Newsom even is a true moderate – to make it out of the party’s primary.
Some progressive groups have already come out in opposition to Newsom due to his shifting policies, and its likely that they’d mount fierce opposition during the primary.
Far-left outrage aside, Newsom is ultimately correct that Democrats need to rediscover moderate, third-way liberalism, particularly on social and economic issues.
The California Governor will likely struggle to overcome challenges from both the political right and left over his record and more recent policy shifts, and it remains to be seen just how effective he will be at trying to emulate former President Clinton.
If he can do so successfully however, Newsom may very well end up as the next Democratic nominee for President.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.