California tourism could lose billions of dollars because of President Donald Trump’s policies on tariffs, immigration and gender identity, as well as his talk of annexing Canada.
Visit California, a nonprofit organization that promotes tourism in the Golden State, recently revised its overall visitor spending forecast for this year from $166 billion to $160 billion, saying international travel into California is already beginning to slow. Canada, the second-largest source of international tourism dollars for the state after Mexico, accounted for $3.7 billion of the $26.5 billion foreign travel brought into the state last year, Visit California said.
So it could be a big problem for California that many Canadians are angry about tariffs and Trump’s insistence that their country should become the 51st U.S. state. Many are refusing to buy U.S.-made products and don’t want to cross the border. Canada and other countries have also issued advisories for travel to the United States, warning travelers that they risk being detained, or that because of the Trump’s administration’s policies on transgender people there could be complications for them depending on what gender is shown on their passports.
Carol Harris, who spoke with CalMatters from Nova Scotia, said she and her husband have visited family in San Diego every year for a long time, but not anymore.
“Never again, until Trump’s gone,” said Harris, a retired university professor who said it will be a big loss. “I will miss the desert,” she added. “I love the topography of California. I like the politics of California.” Still, she said that as an “adamantly progressive” person, not visiting the United States is “just something we have to do.”
Charlie Angus, a member of Canada’s Parliament, recently called Trump’s rhetoric “an act of war” and urged Canadians not to travel to the United States. He cited the case of a Canadian citizen with a U.S. work visa who said she was detained by U.S. officials for two weeks.
“It’s become clear that Donald Trump is willing to drive his nation’s economy into chaos; to rip up the biggest and best trading partnership in the world; to drive the U.S. travel industry to the ground,” Angus said during a March 20 news conference.
Anna Kelly, a White House spokesperson, doubled down on Trump’s annexation remarks in an email response to CalMatters’ questions about the decline in international travel, especially from Canada: “The United States is a great destination for international travelers, and Canadians will be unburdened by the inconveniences of international travel when they become American citizens as residents of our cherished 51st state.”
Effect on California economy
California saw an 8.8% year-over-year decline in international arrivals in February, Visit California said. If that continues, a broad travel slowdown could hurt different industries that fall under the tourism umbrella, including hospitality and restaurants — and the roughly 3 million Californians who work in them.
Lynn Mohrfeld, chief executive of the California Hotel and Lodging Association, said he is concerned about the possible effects on his industry, though he said it could take some time for those to show up. He said international travelers usually plan their trips way in advance, so they may not cancel their plans even if they might have concerns about visiting the U.S. Because of that, he said he expects summer travel to be strong.
He is clinging to optimism about the near term, but Mohrfeld said “we’ve all heard the nationalistic stuff coming out of Canada, and we’re getting whipsawed on these tariffs. We don’t know whether we’re coming and going… so we would definitely love some consistency and stability on that rhetoric.”
The wide-ranging tariffs imposed by the president last week on nearly every nation have alarmed economists, who are warning about a recession, and roiled the stock markets.
The tariffs could lead to higher prices everywhere, which could cause a continued drop in travel. California restaurants could take a greater hit than hotels. Tourists spent $34.8 billion at the state’s restaurants in 2023, more than the $32.8 billion they spent on lodging, Visit California said.
“Visitors consistently spend the most on food service so restaurants will bear the brunt of any drop in tourism, especially in major metropolitan destinations like San Francisco and Los Angeles when compared to those in the suburbs,” said Jot Condie, chief executive of the California Restaurant Association. He said it could take a greater toll on Los Angeles, which is trying to recover from the deadly fires earlier this year.
Condie said the association is trying to make sure city leaders know about the restaurant industry’s struggles, and that it is also working on campaigns to boost local traffic.
As for the airline industry, Visit California CEO Caroline Beteta said among the possible effects of a drop in travel from certain places is a reduction in airline routes.
“Anytime there are significant declines in visitation, airlines can pull routes from California airports, and that can have long-term impacts,” she said. “We saw that in China after the pandemic. Airlift between China and California is still far below where it was in 2019.”
The Canada connection
In February, Visit California published a report forecasting a 15% annual increase in Canadian tourism to the state, but it now plans to release a revised forecast in May that will likely be more in line with an estimate from Tourism Economics that travel from Canada into the United States will decline 15% this year. Already, Canadian air arrivals to the U.S. declined 12.3% in February compared with the same month last year, Visit California said.
Beteta said her group intends to maintain its marketing and advertising efforts in Canada, and that it has a team in Toronto that’s “keeping the California message alive in the market.”
That message, she said: “California can continue to attract Canadian travelers thanks to our diverse culture and open-minded attitude.”
Whether that message will resonate is a big question. Flight Centre, a leading Canadian travel agency, said that as of February, it saw a 20% cancellation rate on trips to the U.S. over the past three months.
Amra Durakovic, head of communications for Flight Centre Travel Group Canada, said “Canadians are choosing to spend their tourism dollars with more intention than ever,” adding that the agency is seeing more domestic travel bookings as well as an uptick in international travel to destinations in Europe and elsewhere.
Nancy, who asked that her last name not be published because she fears the Trump administration will target dual citizens like her, is a “snowbird.” She and tens of thousands of Canadians, many of them retired, stay in California and other warm U.S. states during the winter months.
Canadians have been able to stay in this country for up to six months at a time without a visa, but starting April 11 they will have to register with U.S. immigration authorities if they intend to stay for more than 30 days.
Now, Nancy said she has heard other snowbirds in Coachella Valley are carrying around I-94 visas in their cars, in case they have to prove they are legally allowed to stay in the United States for an extended period of time.
Nancy is American-born but has mostly lived in Canada since the early 1970s. She and her husband are selling their condo in Rancho Mirage, a decision they made because of what she calls the headache involved in owning property in two countries, even before all this “bullying and nonsense.” Now she has heard others like her talk about selling their properties in California, too.
“You get together with other Canadians, within the first two minutes that’s what everyone’s talking about,” she said. “The instability is not what you want to deal with when you’re retired.”
She has strong ties to California, including a disabled brother in Los Angeles who has no other living family but her. So she has to return here. But she knows Canadians are serious about boycotting American products and travel. “The economy is just going to be really shaken up on both sides of the border if this continues,” Nancy said.