Don’t blow it, fellas.
There’s one weekend of games to go before the initial College Football Playoff rankings are revealed on Tuesday (7 p.m., ESPN). If you’re unbeaten, you’re in great shape. If you’ve lost once, you still might be OK. Even if you’ve been to “L” twice, it’s possible you remain in the conversation — yes, Notre Dame, we see you back there — but another bad day at any point and you’ll be banished to Palookaville.
As usual, winning solves everything.
But for the 12-person playoff selection committee, there is no winning. There’s only ticking people off. It’s a tradition that never gets old.
A year ago, SEC fans were outraged when the committee awarded the final at-large spot in the 12-team playoff to two-loss SMU rather than three-loss Alabama. This time around, the rest of the country can lose its mind when the rankings read like an SEC roll call. There will be at least four SEC teams in the initial top 12 and might be five. And there very well could be five SEC teams in the playoff itself when it comes around in December.
Speaking of December, the first day of that month is the purported deadline for conference commissioners to come up with whatever the new plan is going to be for the playoff in 2026. Will it remain at 12 teams? Or expand to 16 or more? Will Big Ten commish Tony Petitti and SEC commish Greg Sankey have to settle things in a boxing ring or perhaps with a testy thumb-wrestling match?
As you read this, committee members are descending upon Grapevine, Texas, to put their heads together in a hotel conference room and get to ranking. Or maybe they’ve already arrived. It could be a couple of them have volunteered to go on a sandwich run. Look, this thing is fluid.
But heading into Saturday, I’m predicting the following top 12: 1. Ohio State, 2. Indiana, 3. Texas A&M, 4. Alabama, 5. Georgia, 6. Ole Miss, 7. Oregon, 8. Miami, 9. BYU, 10. Georgia Tech, 11. Texas Tech, 12. Notre Dame.
I’ve got a fifth SEC team, Tennessee, at No. 13, with much of the South railing against “Notre Dame bias.” College football is nothing if not argumentative. And in case anyone is making a run, I wouldn’t say no to a turkey club.
Week 10 picks
All games are Saturday.
Rutgers (+12½) at Illinois (11 a.m., NBC 5, 890-AM): The Illini aren’t going to the playoff. They’re coming off a humbling 42-25 game at Washington for their third loss, all of them lopsided. Defense has been a huge problem. Keeping morale up can’t be one, too.
“It took me forever to get [this] going in the right direction,” coach Bret Bielema said at his weekly press conference. “It’s really important to keep it and maintain it.”
The Scarlet Knights, who finally got on the board with a Big Ten win last week at Purdue, aren’t pushovers, but they’re not winning this one unless the Illini play like they’ve got someplace else they’d rather be. Illini, 34-20.
Penn State (+19½) at No. 1 Ohio State (11 a.m., Fox 32): This was supposed to be the game to end all games. Then Penn State turned into Shippensburg University. Remember James Franklin? Me, neither. Buckeyes, 31-14.
No. 12 Notre Dame (-29½) at Boston College (2:30 p.m., ESPN, 780-AM): Irish coach Marcus Freeman was asked this week what he wants his team’s identity to be.
“We have to be able to run the ball and stop the run,” he said.
Now there’s some old-school horse sense. If you can do those two things, there really isn’t much else to sweat about. On a related note, BC ranks 127th (out of 136) in rushing offense and 100th in rushing defense. Irish, 38-10.
No. 18 Oklahoma (+2½) at No. 14 Tennessee (6:30 p.m., ABC 7): The two-loss Sooners meet the two-loss Volunteers — a playoff elimination game, in other words — in the only night game of the season at Neyland Stadium. What a scene that’ll be. Vols, 30-21.
No. 23 USC (-4½) at Nebraska (6:30 p.m., NBC 5): This spread keeps shrinking, probably because bettors remembered how awful the Trojans have been on the road on coach Lincoln Riley’s watch. Then again, don’t we have to go with Lincoln in Lincoln? USC, 31-30.
My favorite favorite: No. 20 Texas (-2½) vs. No. 9 Vanderbilt (11 a.m., ABC 7): The Longhorns are too good on defense to fail to protect their home turf.
My favorite underdog: Maryland (+21½) vs. No. 2 Indiana (2:30 p.m., CBS 2): The Terrapins’ their three Big Ten losses were by a total of 10 points. Win? No. Cover? Yep.
Last week: 4-3 straight-up, 4-3 against the spread.
Season to date: 40-23, 31-32.