I was born in 1964. The last time the city had under 400 homicides in a single year, I was just a year old.
Today, Chicago is on the verge of making history with gun violence at its lowest level in 60 years. There are many factors driving the numbers, but community violence intervention programs are clearly among them.
These programs are now active in nearly half of Chicago’s 77 neighborhoods. Studies show they prevent thousands of shootings by directly mediating in disputes among high-risk individuals and brokering non-aggression agreements among street factions in the city’s most violent neighborhoods. Studies further show that people enrolled in these programs are dramatically safer than if they were still involved in the streets.
The credit for the success of our violence intervention strategy starts with the men and women putting down guns and choosing peace. They have so much to teach us — and the world — about forgiveness, healing and courage.
The credit also goes to the community organizations leading the work, the foundations that have funded the work since 2016 and the business community that has also joined the cause. Today, the foundations and business communities are collaborating to take violence intervention to scale in four of our highest-crime communities, and hopefully others soon.
Chicago police also deserve credit. Under Supt. Larry Snelling, the department’s data-driven approach has resulted in fewer arrests and less crime. We hear less talk about “cracking down” and “law and order,” and see more focus on building trust and relationships in the community.
The credit further extends to city, county and state governments that boosted investment in violence intervention from just a few million dollars per year in 2016 to about $100 million per year today for these programs, and tens of millions more for other anti-violence initiatives. The mayor, the County Board president and the governor have all publicly affirmed their commitment to continuing to support these programs.
However, governments at every level now face historic budget challenges that could put our progress at risk. Federal COVID-19 relief funds are all but gone. The Trump administration has frozen or withdrawn billions of dollars in funding for a variety of programs, including violence intervention, putting enormous financial pressure on state and local governments.
As we confront these financial challenges, let’s keep one thing in mind: The cost of maintaining or increasing our investment in violence intervention is not nearly as high as the cost of retreating.
Every nonfatal shooting in Chicago can cost as much as $1million in policing, health care and criminal justice system costs. Fatal shootings can cost nearly twice that amount. Another cost that is hard to nail down but is still real is the opportunity cost of gun violence — lost tax revenue and economic activity due to underinvestment in high-crime areas.
Conversely, every shooting prevented can save or generate similar amounts. With the total number of shootings in 2025 expected to be below the 2021 total of more than 4,400, we are looking at billions of dollars. We estimate that every dollar invested to stop shootings can generate close to $20 in savings or new investments.
Moreover, we cannot measure in dollars the value of lives saved and the trauma and suffering avoided. We cannot put a price on the peace of mind from knowing our children and families are safer, that our kids can play in the streets and that our neighborhoods can revive.
Right now, Chicago is on track to close the year with homicides down around 50% from a modern high of 805 in 2021. Our goal is to bring them down another 50% in the years ahead, which will put us on par with the safest cities anywhere and help shed Chicago’s unfortunate reputation as the gun violence capital of America.
Together, we can show the world — including our misguided president who is threatening to deploy the National Guard in our city — that Chicago is thoughtfully and effectively addressing crime in partnership with the people and the communities we serve.
In the current financial climate, elected officials do not have easy jobs finding the money to achieve and maintain the level of safety and the quality of life that our children and families need and deserve. I don’t envy them. But public service isn’t supposed to be easy.
So instead of pursuing easy answers, let’s focus on the right answers — even if they are hard.
Thousands of men and women work in violence intervention. They directly and indirectly serve thousands of people at risk and tens of thousands of grieving parents, orphaned children and traumatized survivors. Along with police and others, they are making Chicago safer.
On their behalf, we implore our public sector partners to stay the course and make violence intervention a permanent feature of Chicago’s public safety strategy. The very last thing we should do is retreat.
Arne Duncan is the founder of Chicago CRED. He served as U.S. secretary of education from 2009 to 2015.