With an 8-5-3 record, the Blackhawks are enjoying their best start to a season since 2016. And enjoying it they are — literally — after years of misery.
“A lot of guys have grown and matured, and it’s awesome to see,” forward Ryan Donato said Tuesday after practice. “The vibe is great in the locker room. Guys are happy.”
The short-term sustainability of this success is questionable. Hockey’s randomness necessitates large sample sizes before jumping to conclusions. It’s worth noting the Hawks have been outshot in 11 of their 16 games and have played only three games so far within the brutal Central Division.
The Hawks taking such a substantial step forward this season — even if they eventually fall back to earth — unquestionably bolsters their already promising long-term outlook, though.
Many of highly touted prospects haven’t reached the NHL yet, but a number of them will within the next year or two. If this imperfect NHL roster can achieve this level of competitiveness, a more fleshed-out group should theoretically be able to build upon their baseline and elevate the team into a true contender.
But how, exactly, is this imperfect Hawks roster achieving this level of competitiveness? For fans who understandably might not have paid close attention to the NHL’s losingest franchise over the last half-decade, here’s a breakdown of the key factors driving the turnaround:
Bedard’s eruption
The Hawks’ cornerstone player, Connor Bedard, is playing like a bona fide superstar this season.
In the short- and long-term, that’s a transformative development. Ever since the Hawks won the draft lottery in spring 2023, it has been clear they were going to go as far as Bedard took them, and it’s now clear he’s going to go very far.
Entering Tuesday, the 20-year-old forward was tied for second in the league with 25 total points and leading the league with 22 primary points (a stat which excludes secondary assists). He’s riding an eight-game point streak, during which he has five multi-point games.
His shooting, playmaking, skating, vision, work ethic, defensive play, faceoff acumen and off-ice attitude have all leveled up substantially since last season. He shifts the momentum almost every time he hits the ice now, and he’s much less of a liability when he doesn’t have the puck.
Granted, Andre Burakovsky’s arrival and Frank Nazar’s second-year breakout have given him more help offensively than he had last year, but Bedard is also elevating the play of everyone around him now.
Knight’s excellence
When the Hawks acquired Spencer Knight for Seth Jones last spring, they hoped they had found their next franchise goaltender. At this point, they basically know they have.
Knight, 24, has been brilliant in his first month as a full-time NHL starter. Entering Tuesday, his .926 save percentage ranked second in the league, and the Hawks’ .922 team save percentage — factoring in backup Arvid Soderblom’s solid play of his own — leads the league.
Knight’s elite athleticism, lateral quickness and mental processing have prevented a ton of Hawks mistakes from burning them on the scoreboard. He’s finally living up to the expectations placed upon him as the former No. 1 goalie prospect in the world, putting it all together now.
Most analytics models, which take into account both the quality and quantity of shots he has faced, rate him the league’s best goalie so far this season.
His intelligence and insightfulness, combined with his previous experience with the Stanley Cup-winning Panthers, has given the Hawks a valuable resource off the ice, too.
Blashill’s impact
It would be easy to attribute the Hawks’ success exclusively to their elite scorer and elite goalie, but new coach Jeff Blashill — even though his contributions are harder to quantify — deserves credit, too.
There has been a noticeable difference between Blashill, who brought plenty of experience from his Red Wings and Lightning tenures, and the Hawks’ last four interim and permanent coaches, all of whom were first-timers.
Blashill demands more respect and exudes more confidence and certainty than his predecessors, and his certainty in his beliefs and strategies has been backed up by their effectiveness.
His high-intensity training camp laid a strong foundation. His attention to detail identified key skills for every player to work on, and his coaching abilities have helped them actually improve those skills.
His deployment of unusual 11-forward, seven-defensemen lineups has helped his extremely young defensive corps hold the fort collectively even while developing individually. Wyatt Kaiser, Louis Crevier and Artyom Levshunov have all made huge strides, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Sam Rinzel eventually join them.
And his aggressive defensive-zone system has maximized his players’ strengths, minimized weaknesses and taught them how to play like a true contender, even if they aren’t quite one yet.
Is this a playoff team?
The short answer is: likely not. Most projection models (and betting lines) still forecast them to finish among the bottom five-to-seven teams by season’s end.
A tough test Wednesday against the 11-4-1 Devils — starting a home game-heavy stretch for the Hawks — will offer another data point. But it would take another 16-game stretch of .500-or-better hockey to begin proving this isn’t a mirage.
Until then, equal doses of curiosity and skepticism are probably warranted. Succeeding for 82 games is difficult, and in terms of experience and depth, this team falls woefully short of their competition.
Can two great players and one great coach triple-handedly make up the difference? That remains to be seen.
