Denver’s NBA team might’ve featured only one more first-round draft pick in its ideal 2023-24 starting lineup than the college squad up the road.
Four of the Nuggets’ five starters were former first-rounders (Nikola Jokic really holds them back), while the University of Colorado men’s basketball team often played a lineup with at least two future first-rounders. Perhaps as many as three.
The exact number be determined June 26, the first day of the 2024 NBA Draft. So will the fate of Denver’s No. 28 overall pick. Could the Nuggets draft one of the three Buffs? And if so, which CU prospect is the best fit and most likely to remain in-state: Cody Williams, Tristan da Silva or KJ Simpson?
Cody Williams
Measurements: 6-7, 178-pound small forward
2023-24 stats: 11.9 points, 3.0 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 2.0 turnovers, 55.2% / 41.5% / 71.4% shooting, 28.4 minutes
Evaluation: The brother of Oklahoma City Thunder standout Jalen Williams was projected as high as No. 1 overall earlier in the college season, but an inconsistent freshman campaign dotted with minor injuries seemed to slightly lower his stock. He only appeared in 24 games, coming off the bench in the NCAA Tournament. But the former five-star recruit is still expected to be lottery pick, the idea being that his positional size and athleticism are rife with potential to rival his brother. He needs to get stronger to fill out his frame and improve his defensive versatility. He also needs to develop his 3-point shot more; he was high-percentage but low-volume for the Buffs. Those incomplete aspects of his game make it more difficult to envision his future in the league, but there seems to be no doubt regarding his ball-in-hand skillset and work ethic.
Nuggets likelihood: He doesn’t fit the recent Calvin Booth prototype of older, three- or four-year college players. But neither did Peyton Watson, another one-and-done wing who was selected by Denver late in the first round (2022) based on potential rather than NCAA production. Problem is, Williams simply isn’t going to be available at No. 28. The Nuggets would have to trade up for him, and if they want to draft a plug-and-play wing for their bench this year, they probably need one whose scoring ability is more proven by now anyway.
Tristan da Silva
Measurements: 6-8, 217-pound small/power forward
2023-24 stats: 16.0 points, 5.1 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.8 turnovers, 49.3% / 39.5% / 83.5% shooting, 33.8 minutes
Evaluation: The 23-year-old has the makings of a rotation-caliber, two-way stretch four. He was a smart off-ball player for Colorado and an elite catch-and-shoot threat on the perimeter. His lack of athleticism caused mock drafts to overlook him initially, but a strong finish to the season (and an especially impressive NCAA Tournament) brought heightened attention. Now da Silva is seen as a likely top-20 pick who’s capable of making an immediate impact as an NBA role player. He’s a competent ball-handler (comfortable shooting off the dribble) but not particularly skilled at getting separation, and he needs to rebound better to make himself indispensable to an NBA frontcourt.
Nuggets likelihood: Like Williams, da Silva would probably require a trade-up, albeit a less dramatic one. He does like to play at a fast pace, which is appropriate for the identity of Denver’s second unit. But with Vlatko Cancar returning from his ACL injury, Zeke Nnaji entering a new four-year contract (barring a trade) and Watson developing as a stretch four, backup power forward might be the position Denver needs the least this offseason. It’s probably a reach to consider da Silva an ideal fit considering the Nuggets need a more ball-dominant young player for their bench — Watson is an unfinished offensive product, Christian Braun is a slasher and Julian Strawther is a floor-spacer. Still, it was easy to fall in love with da Silva’s game watching him in March.
KJ Simpson
Measurements: 6-0, 187-pound point guard
2023-24 stats: 19.7 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 2.2 turnovers, 47.5% / 43.4% / 87.6% shooting, 35.1 minutes
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Evaluation: You may have noticed the statistics gradually improving farther down the list. The trio is ordered this way not because of what each player accomplished in college, but as a result of their consensus draft projections. Simpson is the only CU prospect whose first-round status is questionable, even though he was the Buffs’ primary scoring option, over both Williams and da Silva. That’s a tale as old as time for undersized college guards. Scouts and prognosticators are always unsure what to do with them. Adapting to the size and physicality of the NBA often proves to be overwhelming, but Simpson has two qualities that make him a candidate to overcome that trend. One, he plays bigger than his size — he’s a surprisingly gritty rebounder and crafty finisher through traffic. Two, as the saying goes, he has that dog in him — evidenced by that Kawhi Leonard-esque (or Jamal Murray-esque?) game-winner in the NCAA Tournament.
Nuggets likelihood: Whether it’s Jalen Pickett or a newcomer, Denver needs to find a long-term backup point guard for Murray. So positionally, Simpson fits a need. From a draft timing standpoint, he also fits. No. 28 is around the high end of Simpson’s projection range, with some mocks predicting him to fall all the way to the 50s. (The Nuggets pick again at No. 56.) And in terms of skillset, the 20-year-old brings a scoring and ball-handling confidence that could enliven Denver’s second unit, if his strengths translate to the next level. That’s obviously a risk, but there’s risk involved in any player selected this late in the first round. Simpson is easily the most compelling and most realistic local prospect for the Nuggets to consider in this draft — and he was recently hosted in Denver for a workout.
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