Colorado (1-1) at Colorado State (1-1)
When/where: 5:30 p.m. Saturday/Canvas Stadium
TV/Radio: CBS/850 AM, Rams Radio Network
BetMGM Line: Colorado -7.5, 58.5 over/under
Weather: 90 degrees and clear at kickoff
Series History: 68-22-2 in favor of CU; six-game win streak for Buffs
Three storylines for CU
Another Get-Even Game: After the shellacking at the hands of the Huskers in Lincoln, will the Buffs be ready for another rival who wants payback for a loss last year? CU looked discombobulated and flat while going down 28-0 in the first half to Nebraska, who played with fire the Buffs lacked. CSU will come out with the same sort of intensity, so the Buffs better be ready. And they better be ready from the opening whistle — something that was also a problem for CU in the first half against North Dakota State, when they fell behind 20-17.
The Leaky O-Line: CU only allowed one sack in the win over NDSU, but the offensive line reverted to its 2023 norm against Nebraska. The Huskers sacked Buffs quarterbacks six times for minus-41 yards. Whether the Buffs will be able to protect Shedeur Sanders in FoCo will be a telling factor for not just this game, but the rest of the season. The new-look front featuring two transfers (guards Justin Mayers and Kahlil Benson) plus a blue-chip freshman recruit (left tackle Jordan Seaton) needs to make a statement against CSU.
CU’s Star Power: CU has two play-makers who can take over the game completely, or swing it in the Buffs’ favor at any moment. Even in the loss at Nebraska, two-way star Travis Hunter still recorded 10 catches for 110 yards. Shedeur Sanders did throw an awful pick-six on a jumped hook route that helped swing the momentum early. But if Sanders and Hunter are on their game, along with speedy wideout Jimmy Horn Jr., the Buffs have ample firepower to dominate important moments.
Injuries of note: Running back Dallan Hayden (out, undisclosed injury), safety Shilo Sanders (out, forearm), defensive lineman Chidozie Nwankwo (questionable, shoulder).
Three storylines for CSU
Tory Horton’s Groin: After the Rams’ star wideout suffered a groin strain in last weekend’s win over Northern Colorado, resulting in his departure in the third quarter, head coach Jay Norvell said he believes Horton will be available against the Buffs. Horton had 16 catches for 133 yards in last year’s rivalry game and was a big reason why the Rams were in position to beat CU until they wilted in the waning moments. Whether Horton can be that same dynamic force this year is a huge X-factor for the home team.
Vibe at Canvas: This rivalry won’t pick back up again until 2029, so Fort Collins gets the last draw for the game for a half-decade. It’s been a long time coming: The game hasn’t been played in the Choice City since 1996, a 48-34 Buffs win. The Rocky Mountain Showdown was supposed to return to CSU in 2020 but was canceled by the pandemic. So this marks the Showdown’s debut at Canvas Stadium. The FoCo faithful are expected to pack the stadium and present a vibe as rockin’ as Folsom Field was last season.
The Finish Factor: CSU was 90 seconds from winning last year’s game in Boulder. The Rams had the Buffs on the ropes, only to let CU drive 98 yards and score the game-tying TD plus two-point conversion with 36 seconds left to force OT. Like many of the Rams’ close losses last season — see also: the UNLV and Hawaii games — CSU couldn’t finish, especially on defense. CSU will need to get a clutch stop or two in the fourth quarter in order for Norvell to secure his first CSU win in a rivalry game.
Injuries of note: Horton (probable, groin), defensive lineman Nuer Gatkuoth (doubtful, turf toe).
Predictions
Kyle Newman, sportswriter: CSU 31, CU 28
This is a fork in the road for both teams’ seasons. The Rams get their first win over the Buffs since 2014, and their first statement victory of the Norvell Era. CSU’s defensive front comes up with key pressures, and Henry Blackburn’s late interception seals the game for the Rams, who also get a clutch performance out of QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi. This win propels CSU to a breakout season and its first bowl since 2017. The Buffs, meanwhile, go the other way: After getting beat by a rival in back-to-back weeks because CU can’t protect the QB and its defense can’t hold, the reality of the Buffs’ tough Big 12 schedule hits hard and Season 2 under Coach Prime spirals.
Sean Keeler, sports columnist: CU 33, CSU 21
What’s the golden Rocky Mountain Showdown rule? When the oddsmakers say it’ll be a blowout, it ends up close. When all signs point to a close game, here comes the rout. The Buffs are flawed, you say? So are the Rams, whether they’ve got a rockin’ Canvas Stadium at their backs or not. FoCo will be electric, but electricity alone can’t make up for a dinged-up Tory Horton. CSU has to play nearly perfectly to lap its bigger, faster and more talented big brother down the road. As long as Shedeur Sanders is healthy, CU’s got a lot more wiggle room. And more than enough speed to pull this one out late. Again.
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Matt Schubert, sports editor: CU 42, CSU 24
At the start of the season, there were plenty of reasons to believe this game would be close: Year 3 under head coach Jay Norvell. A returning starting QB (Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi) and dangerous weapons (receiver Tory Horton, running back Justin Marshall) around him. And the game’s in FoCo! Just one problem: Through two weeks, the Rams haven’t looked very good. While it would be a stretch to say CU has, either, the defense has provided hope with back-to-back strong second halves, and they have a clear talent advantage. If the Rams can’t pressure Shedeur Sanders (they can’t), CU names its score.
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