LAS VEGAS — With an 11th consecutive victory on July 21, the Brewers passed the Cubs to take sole possession of first in the National League Central.
For the first time all season, a Wrigley Field worker situated Milwaukee’s blue-and-yellow-lettered flag atop the center-field division-standings pole.
And yet, bettors could have snatched a nifty plus price on the Brewers winning the very division they now led.
At BetMGM, patrons could have secured +165 odds, or risk $100 to win $165, on Milwaukee winning the Central, the Cubs at -220. DraftKings had the Cubs -180, the Brewers +135.
A Milwaukee writer trumpeted similarly attractive odds at Potawatomi Casino. Colleague Steve Greenberg tapped a social-media note about the Cubs still being division favorites, “and I don’t get why.”
On July 22, the Brewers lost, and the Cubs won, knotting it. BetMGM shaved the Cubs to -175, Milwaukee to +130, DraftKings shifted to -145 and +105, respectively.
The next day, the Brewers won; the Cubs lost. Neither played July 24. Early that Friday morning, BetMGM had sliced those figures to Cubs -125, Brewers +105; DraftKings to -130 and +105, respectively.
“We’re looking at the overall market and also the liability on that,” BetMGM director of trading Lamarr Mitchell said. “As much as I want to say that the Brewers are on fire, a great team and a public team, they’re not.
“They are not the public team.”
Public action
During the winter, neither Wisconsin residents nor Milwaukee-area natives flocked to Vegas to bet the Brewers at 25-to-1 odds, at the Westgate SuperBook, to win the Central.
(On Jan. 14, the Cubs were +150, Reds 25-1, Cardinals and Pirates 30-1.)
Cubs supporters, however, are unique. Every winter, for decades, they flood sportsbooks and bookies with cash.
“Through the course of the entire year, a lot of people from Chicago come here and make their bets on the Cubs, no matter what,” Mitchell said, “even when the Cubs were terrible.
“Even though the Raiders are not really the best team in the AFC West, we’re always heavy on the Raiders because they’re here. The Cubs are one of those teams we’ll always be heavy on, too, because they’re the Cubs.”
Rampart race and sports manager Duane Colucci confirmed that the teams who always attract the most attention are the Lakers, Dodgers and Raiders for being so near, or located in, Las Vegas. The Bears, Packers, Cowboys, Yankees and Cubs enjoy near-blind loyalty, too.
He added, “Even the Cleveland Browns, at times.”
Mitchell concurred. I spoke with him late the morning of July 25, several hours after the nine BetMGM books on the Strip had adjusted those Cubs divisional odds to -125, the Brewers to +105.
“It’s about where it should be,” Mitchell said. “It’s kinda like the Yankees being the Yankees, the Dodgers being the Dodgers. We know we’re going to take a lot more money on those teams because they’re public teams.
“If they stumble a little bit, we still have the liability on those teams. As long as we’re at the right price, market-wise, that’s why the number is where it’s at.”
A puppet, a pauper . . .
A Milwaukee native, I relate to many pre-2016 title-starved Cubs fans. (Especially those born in 1955, making them 61 for the celebrations.) Finally, they experienced glory.
My Brewers hunger pains began in 1970, when the Pilots moved from Seattle. I was 6. In their lone World Series appearance, in 1982, they beat the Cardinals 10-0 in Game 1, led 3-2 but dropped the last two games.
After Game 7, I listened to Sinatra croon “That’s Life” two dozen times.
This past winter, I bet the Cubs when they acquired the outstanding Kyle Tucker. On June 2, though, Milwaukee squeaked by Cincinnati to improve to 33-28, five games behind the Cubs.
Maybe the Brewers wouldn’t struggle? The next morning, I got them at +775 to win the division, +3750 to win the NL pennant, at Circa.
I did not add a World Series ticket, though, to avoid such pressure or to certify a jinx.
Off-the-hook craziness
On July 7, Colucci guested on ‘‘Sports by the Book,’’ the daily sports-gambling show streamed out of the South Point, the Rampart’s sister property, and targeted the Cubs.
The Cubs (54-36) led Milwaukee (50-40) by four games going into that day’s games and were -700 to win the Central, the Brewers +500.
“The Cubs should never be -700 to win their division in the history of baseball, in my opinion,” Colucci said. “I think they’re playing way over their heads, and they’re -700 with only a four-game lead.
“Due to their [losing] tradition and what they bring to the table, they should not be -700 to win anything.”
Colucci patronized enemy books to invest in Milwaukee.
“Shocking,” he says today. “I found massive value [a month ago] betting against the Cubs. The Brewers had significant value. The Cubs at -700 was just off-the-hook craziness, with less than a double-digit-game lead.
“[Punters] jumped on the value, and we had to adjust because now they’re not the front-runners. The Brewers are now putting it together.”
Still, Colucci picked the Cubs to win the division.
“If they do, we won’t get crushed,” he said. “With the Brewers, we’d lose a little but wouldn’t get crushed. We’d win substantially less if the Brewers come in, but nothing really serious.
“It’s good to see the Cubs involved. I hope they win [the division] because it’ll create handle during the playoffs. We’d take a hit on them in the World Series, but I’m not sure if they can win the World Series.”
Mitchell also pegged the Cubs to win the Central. A nightmare scenario involves the Reds and superstar Elly De La Cruz rallying to win the division.
“Because of the odds, which were so long when they started out,” Mitchell said. “As a matter of fact, the Reds in that division have our most action, as far as tickets and money. They’re our biggest liability in the NL Central.”
Redlining
Cubs lefty starter Matthew Boyd had been rolling, with a major-league-best scoreless streak of 23„ innings. The Cubs then scored three runs for him in the first inning Monday in Milwaukee, but the Brewers won 8-4.
In Long Island, handicapper Tom Barton sounded specific alarms a month ago, in one of our regular chats, about Boyd. He had hit 135 innings only twice, in 2018 and ’19, and both times he redlined once he hit 150 innings.
In ’18, Boyd yielded 19 earned runs over his last 29 innings; a year later, he allowed 22 in his last 32 innings. After Monday, Boyd had thrown 123⅔ innings.
The Brewers won Tuesday, too, awaking Wednesday morning with the best record in baseball, at 64-43, two games above the Cubs (62-45).
DraftKings listed Milwaukee as the -130 favorite to win the Central, the Cubs +100. BetMGM had the Brewers -125, the Cubs +100. For the first time all year, Milwaukee became the division favorite.
Colucci gazed into his crystal baseball to predict August and September in the NL Central.
“It’s going to be a dogfight.”