Just over a month ago, the Cubs and hotshot manager Craig Counsell made their first visit to Milwaukee of the season.
You must have at least a vague recollection of how things felt going into that four-game series, don’t you?
The Cubs were in a somewhat worrisome 3-9 slide, but they were still above .500 at 27-26 and in second place in the division, trailing the surprisingly strong Brewers by only a few games. Top starter Justin Steele, set to pitch the opener, didn’t have a win under his belt yet, but this would be merely his sixth crack at it. Fans at American Family Field had lots of boos for local son Counsell — gone after an outstanding nine-year run in the home dugout — but the Cubs now had the genuine article, the gifted team leader himself.
It was only Memorial Day, for crying out loud. How bad off could the Cubs really have been?
Well, now we know.
One of the most disappointing teams in baseball staggered back into Brewtown on Friday, and there might not be enough Blatz and Schlitz on the planet to blur the reality of how much trouble the Cubs — in last place at 38-44 and a confidence-crushing 10½ games back in the standings as a three-game series began — are in.
Then the Brewers continued to confound the Cubs, scoring all of their runs in a 4-2 victory on a fourth-inning grand slam by Jackson Chourio off starter Jameson Taillon, who covered six innings.
And before anyone utters the words “wild card,” please, just stop. Yes, the Cubs entered Friday four games back in that category. It sounded like a puny enough number until one realized every National League team with a pulse was faring better — with only the amateur-hour Marlins and Rockies beneath the Cubs in the overall standings. The notion of these Cubs, with all their mighty flaws, outplaying a half-dozen or more teams that are at least moderately functional — and in some cases a lot better than that — is almost laughable.
Or you can take it from the wonks with the slide rules and protractors in their pocket protectors. According to FanGraphs’ brainiac projection models, the Cubs have a 3.9% chance of winning the division and a 12.1% chance of making the postseason. The Brewers, on the other hand, are luxuriating in swanky percentages of 74.5 and 86.6, respectively.
The Brewers aren’t messing around, in case anyone was raising an eyebrow.
While the desperate Cubs were relieved to avoid a four-game sweep in San Francisco by winning Thursday’s finale, the Brewers — winners of four games in a row, four straight series overall and eight straight series at home — enjoyed what we have to assume was a delightful day off. They’ve spent nearly 80 days in first place and came in amid a 20-12 stretch in which they got cooking by going 6-1 against the Cubs and White Sox to end May and begin June. Counsell’s former team had a double-digit cushion over not only the Cubs but also the Reds, with the Cardinals as perhaps the only rival realistically in play for the NL Central title.
And how it has unfolded with skipper Pat Murphy’s tough-minded squad should have all of baseball deeply impressed, if not slack-jawed.
While the Cubs have drowned in back-of-the-bullpen misery, the Brewers have made precisely zero excuses despite having as many pitfalls and obstacles in the pitching department as any team in the game. Ace Corbin Burnes was traded to the Orioles. Outstanding starter Brandon Woodruff is out for the season. Brand-new trade pickup Dallas Keuchel on Wednesday became the 14th different starting pitcher the Brewers have used, an astonishing number compared with the Cubs’ far-more-navigable total of nine. Murphy has given the ball to proven veteran Freddy Peralta and, behind him, a who’s-who of, “Who?”
And behold what a bullpen can do even without its elite closer, in this case Devin Williams, who won’t make his season debut until after the All-Star break. While the Cubs came in having blown an unconscionable 17 save opportunities, the Brewers had blown nine fewer while persevering with a 3.16 bullpen ERA — third-lowest in baseball — despite being neck-and-neck with the Giants for most bullpen innings pitched.
Put another way: The Brewers’ pen entered this series having pitched 40⅔ more innings than the Cubs’ pen yet allowed 37 fewer runs. Holy Hasenpfeffer Incorporated.
It has to needle Cubs president Jed Hoyer — a target of much deserved criticism — that the Brewers have gotten a surprisingly great closer performance (17-for-18 in saves, 1.72 ERA) from Trevor Megill, who was waived by the Cubs after the 2021 season. Megill saved the opener with a perfect ninth.
And Dairyland has to utterly love that while Counsell entered the season with so much hype, the 65-year-old Murphy — Counsell’s longtime bench coach and long-ago college coach — is the one leading the race for NL manager of the year. Murphy, who won exactly 1,000 games as a college skipper, must know a thing or two about a thing or two.
For the Cubs, there are no such positive vibes. Take, for example, Steele, who still doesn’t have that first “W” despite having thrown extremely well over the last month. It’s not his fault. Maybe he’ll break through on Saturday. Anybody want to bet on it?
NOTE: The Cubs pushed buttons and yanked levers on their roster machine Friday, affecting several relievers. Right-hander Ethan Roberts was recalled from Triple-A Iowa, and fellow righty Jorge Lopez was selected from Iowa. Lopez pitched a scoreless inning in his debut.
In corresponding moves, Keegan Thompson went on the 15-day injured list (retroactive to June 27) with a rib fracture and Vinny Nittoli was designated for assignment. The veteran Lopez, 31, recently landed with the Cubs on a minor-league deal and hasn’t pitched in the majors since throwing his glove into the stands after being ejected from the Mets’ game May 29.