MESA, Ariz — The first day of Cactus League play usually would be far too early to venture a guess at the Cubs’ Opening Day roster for the regular season.
But when the Cubs faced the White Sox on Friday to kick off their spring-training schedule, much of their expected roster was already obvious.
There are still a couple of position battles to watch: the fourth outfielder and the last opening in the bullpen. And, of course, injuries and quality of play throughout the spring might change the roster picture.
‘‘Roster decisions out of spring training are based on a number of things,’’ manager Craig Counsell said when he was asked Friday about the players competing to make the team. ‘‘Certainly, performance is one of them. But they’re going to get
opportunities, for sure. We signed them because we think they can provide major-league value.’’
Here’s one possible Opening Day roster configuration, plus the factors the Cubs are weighing this spring:
Starting pitchers (5)
RHP Cade Horton
RHP Jameson Taillon
RHP Edward Cabrera
LHP Matthew Boyd
LHP Shota Imanaga
The Cubs’ rotation is all but set. What’s left to sort out are the rotation order and the Opening Day starter. After turning in one of the best performances of any starting pitcher after the All-Star break last season, Horton is considered the favorite to win the Opening Day nod, but Counsell hasn’t tipped his hand.
As long as the Cubs’ pitching staff remains healthy, the rotation crunch will happen when left-hander Justin Steele (elbow surgery) returns from the injured list.
Relievers (8)
RHP Colin Rea
RHP Daniel Palencia
RHP Phil Maton
RHP Hunter Harvey
RHP Jacob Webb
RHP Porter Hodge
LHP Caleb Thielbar
LHP Hoby Milner
The Cubs’ bullpen is also pretty much determined, but the team has interesting options for the final spot. Hodge is included here after a rocky 2025 season that featured injuries and mechanical issues, which likely were linked. Hodge is a bounce-back candidate if he can address the control issues that plagued him Friday.
The Cubs, however, could go a number of ways. If Ryan Rolison or Luke Little stands out this spring, they might carry a third left-hander. If they want another option who could provide length, Ben Brown or Javier Assad could fill that role.
Catchers (3)
C Miguel Amaya
C Carson Kelly
DH/C Moisés Ballesteros
Kelly and Amaya are poised to split time behind the plate. Ballesteros is expected to serve mostly as a designated hitter, but the Cubs want to make sure he gets some catching experience this season. They also can use the DH spot to get their lineup regulars days off in the field.
Infield (6)
1B Michael Busch
2B Nico Hoerner
SS Dansby Swanson
3B Alex Bregman
UTL Matt Shaw
1B Tyler Austin
Shaw is set to play a super-utility role, which will include reps in the outfield. Austin gives the Cubs a right-handed option off the bench to pair with Busch. But Busch, a left-handed hitter, is expected to get more at-bats against left-handed pitching this season compared to years past.
Outfield (4)
LF Ian Happ
CF Pete Crow-Armstrong
RF Seiya Suzuki
OF Dylan Carlson
Carlson, a non-roster invitee, is included in this roster projection. His switch-hitting ability might be valuable off the bench, and he’s a former first-round pick who finished third in National League Rookie of the Year voting with the Cardinals in 2021.
He and fellow non-roster invitee Chas McCormick are proven major-leaguers who were derailed by injury. The two appear to be neck-and-neck in the competition.
Already on the 40-man roster are Kevin Alcantara and Justin Dean. Both have minor-league options left, which will factor in as the Cubs ponder roster decisions.
Injured list
LHP Justin Steele
RHP Shelby Miller
Steele and Miller are recovering from elbow surgeries. Steele is targeting May or June for his return to a major-league mound.
Miller had an internal-brace procedure during offseason to address his injury before signing a two-year deal worth $2.5 million this month. Like Steele, Miller avoided a full Tommy John surgery, which should shorten his recovery. He hopes to return late in the season, but pitching in 2026 isn’t guaranteed.
