The Blackhawks‘ surprising early-season success has not affected their amateur scouting department, which continues to evaluate 2026 NHL draft prospects the same way they always do.
The process of narrowing down the top players in the class is shaping up to be more complicated — and more interesting — this year than in years past.
Canadian winger Gavin McKenna has long been expected to be the slam-dunk No. 1 overall pick next June — like Connor Bedard in 2023 and Macklin Celebrini in 2024 — but a shaky start to his freshman year at Penn State has suddenly cast doubt on that conclusion.
Now, the door is open for Canadian defenseman Keaton Verhoeff and several others to potentially surpass McKenna. But it’ll take a while to sort that out; there’s a lot of hockey left to be played this season.
It could also take a while to sort out exactly where the Hawks will be picking in June.
For the first time since general manager Kyle Davidson’s debut draft in 2022, it won’t be obvious by Thanksgiving that the franchise is destined for another top-five selection.
In fact, if the season ended today, the Hawks would be in the playoffs and out of the top 16 picks altogether. Yet they would still have an entry in the lottery because the Panthers, whose first-round pick they own, would be out of the playoffs.
That scenario would’ve been unfathomable two months ago. No models project it to be the case by season’s end, either. Entering Tuesday, FanDuel oddsmakers still put the Hawks’ end-of-season betting line at 80.5 points (fourth-lowest in the league) and put the Panthers’ line at 99.5 points (sixth-highest).
Hockey can be unpredictable, though, and if the Hawks continue to defy expectations and analytics for another month or two, the reality of the situation must be taken seriously. The trade of Seth Jones for Spencer Knight and that Panthers pick continues to look better and better for the Hawks, too.
It would be impossible to begin strategizing right now for any specific draft selection, but that’s not something the Hawks typically do until springtime anyway. Right now, they’re simply learning and forming opinions about each prospect.
McKenna’s challengers
McKenna’s bold, admirable decision to challenge himself in U.S. college hockey rather than continuing to dominate Canadian junior hockey might end up backfiring.
After accumulating an eye-popping 129 points in 56 games in the WHL last season, the 17-year-old Yukon Territory native has 15 points in 14 games (and a minus-seven rating) for the Nittany Lions this season.
That production is still impressive, but his inconsistent work ethic and iffy play away from the puck have raised concerns. He doesn’t forecheck or backcheck diligently enough to satisfy some scouts. At 6-0 and 165 pounds, he sometimes backs down from physicality, too.
With the puck, his skills are amazing, but he can spend too much time on the perimeter — a problem that often exacerbates in pro hockey.
Enter Verhoeff, a well-rounded and physically mature defenseman (6-4, 212 pounds) who has adjusted to college hockey smoothly as a North Dakota freshman.
Verhoeff profiles similarly to Panthers stalwart Aaron Ekblad, the No. 1 overall pick 12 years ago. He isn’t flashy, but he has minimal warts. Some NHL teams seem deeply in love with him.
Canadian center Tynan Lawrence, who plays for the USHL’s Muskegon Lumberjacks, could also be a horse to watch once he returns from injury.
He plays a strong two-way game with solid skating, shooting, hockey IQ, compete level and defensive acumen, even though he also isn’t as flashy as McKenna.
It’s worth noting the Hawks have several ties to Lawrence. They took Vaclav Nestrasil out of Muskegon in the first round last year, and he’s committed to Boston University, whose staff they maintain a close relationship with.