The Palisades and Eaton fires officially claimed 31 lives, but a new study suggests there were actually more than 400 deaths attributable to the fires, according to the research, which published on Wednesday, Aug 6.
The study, led by a team of researchers in Finland and published in the medical journal JAMA, estimates through mathematical modeling that 440 deaths from Jan. 5 to Feb. 1, were due to the effects of the wildfires, including increased exposure to poor air quality and interruptions in health care.
The researchers cited deaths “directly” and “partially” related to the wildfires, including lung and hearth conditions made worse by smoke or stress, and “indirect” deaths, because of mental health impacts or lack of health care that person might have received if the fires had not interrupted their treatment regimens.
“The findings from this study underscore the need to complement direct fatalities estimates with alternative methods to quantify the additional mortality burden of wildfires and of climate-related emergencies more broadly,” the authors of the study wrote. “They also highlight the need for improved mortality surveillance during and after wildfire emergencies.”
How to track the indirect impacts of disastrous events has been a continuing subject of academic research, and even legislative proposals.
There have been estimates of deaths caused by extreme heat, as well as research into the large-scale toll of wildfires driven by climate change.
Recent studies on other disasters show similar findings, which shed light on the impact of extreme weather events.
One of the studies, co-led by Ruben Juarez of the University of Hawaii, looked at more than 1,100 adults six to 14 months after the Maui fire. It found lower lung function in people in areas close to the fire compared with those in lower-exposure areas. Overall, about 22% had below-normal lung function.
“It’s a stark reminder that wildfires can leave an invisible but lasting scar on respiratory health, long after the flames are gone,” said Juarez in an email to the Associated Press, noting that this Friday marks the two-year anniversary of the Maui fire.
Kristie Ebi of the University of Washington echoed that, noting that there is a growing understanding that wildfire smoke can be more toxic than standard air pollution.
“It’s not just leaves and branches and trees” that are burned, she said. “It’s buildings. It’s gasoline stations. It’s old houses that have asbestos in them. It’s automobiles. There are lots of components of wildfire smoke.”
She said the studies such as the one on Maui’s aftermath suggests “this toxicity is affecting people’s long-term lung function.”
Of course, the researchers don’t know exactly how much smoke each person was exposed to, and other studies would need to be done to explore cause-and-effect, she added.
The Eaton and Palisades fires collectively destroyed more than 16,000 structures and officially left 31 people dead — 12 in the Palisades and 19 in Altadena – after exploding in the two regions back on Jan. 7.
In the months since, new light has been shed on environmental concerns spurred by the fires, including questions over toxicity of the air and soil.
In the study on Palisades and Eaton fire, researchers collected death counts for all causes in L.A. County and used a model to estimated expected deaths in the county from Jan. 5 to Feb. 1. From there, they calculated the difference between “observed” and “expected” deaths. They found that in that time window, 6,371 people died in the county, compared with 5,931 expected deaths, a difference of 440.
The researchers noted the study’s limitations.
They said the data are provisional and suggest that they “may be revised to include additional deaths.”
They also noted that additional deaths may have occurred beyond the period of the current study.
“Future research should investigate the longer-term impacts of the Los Angeles wildfires as additional data become available and assess the specific causes of death contributing to excess wildfire-related mortality,” they wrote.
Staff Writer Gladys Vargas and the Associated Press contributed to this article.