SERIES SCHEDULE (all times PT)
Game 1: Reds at Dodgers, Tuesday, 6:08 p.m., ESPN
Game 2: Reds at Dodgers, Wednesday, 6:08 p.m., ESPN
x-Game 3: Reds at Dodgers, Thursday, 6:08 p.m., ESPN
x – if necessary
Season series: The Dodgers won, 5-1.
TALE OF THE TAPE (OFFENSE)
Reds (NL rank) … category … Dodgers (NL rank)
83-79 (3rd in NL Central) … Record … 93-69 (1st in NL West)
716 (8th) … Runs scored … 825 (1st)
.245 (T-9th) … Batting avg. … .253 (3rd)
.315 (9th) … OBP … .327 (3rd)
.391 (9th) … Slugging pct. … .441 (1st)
.706 (10th) … OPS … .768 (1st)
167 (8th) … Home runs … 244 (1st)
105 (10th) … Stolen bases … 88 (12th)
TALE OF THE TAPE (PITCHING)
Reds (NL rank) … category … Dodgers (NL rank)
3.86 (7th) … Team ERA … 3.95 (8th)
3.85 (6th) … Starters ERA … 3.69 (3rd)
3.89 (7th) … Bullpen ERA … 4.27 (11th)
1.22 (4th) … WHIP … 1.26 (7th)
8.66 (7th) … Ks per 9 inns … 9.40 (1st)
PROJECTED LINEUPS
REDS: CF T.J. Friedl (.261/.364/.378, 14 HRs, 53 RBIs, 12 SBs), RF Noelvi Marte (.263/.300/.448, 14 HRs, 51 RBIs, 10 SBs), LF Gavin Lux (.269/.350/.374, 5 HRs, 53 RBIs), DH Miguel Andujar (.318/.352/.470, 10 HRs, 44 RBIs with Reds and Athletics), SS Elly De La Cruz (.264/.336/.480, 22 HRs, 86 RBIs, 102 runs scored, 37 SBs), 1B Spencer Steer (.258/.312/.411, 21 HRs, 75 RBIs), 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes (.235/.290/.306, 5 HRs, 49 RBIs, 12 SBs with Reds and Pirates), C Jose Trevino (.238/.272/.351, 4 HRs, 22 RBIs), 2B Matt McLain (.220/.300/.343, 5 HRs, 50 RBIs, 18 SBs)
DODGERS: DH Shohei Ohtani (.282/.392/.622, 55 HRs, 102 RBIs, 20 SBs, 146 runs scored), SS Mookie Betts (.258/.3226/.406, 20 HRs, 82 RBIs, 95 runs scored), 1B Freddie Freeman (.295/.367/.502, 24 HRs, 90 RBIs), 3B Max Muncy (.243/.376/.470, 19 HRs, 87 RBIs), LF Teoscar Hernandez (.247/.284/.454, 25 HRs, 89 RBIs), LF Andy Pages (.272/.313/.461, 27 HRs, 86 RBIs, 14 SBs), CF Tommy Edman (.225/.274/.382, 13 HRs, 49 RBIs), 2B Miguel Rojas (.262/.318/.397, 7 HRs, 27 RBIs), C Ben Rortvedt (.224/.309/.327, 1 HR, 4 RBIs)
For two months (July and August), the Dodgers’ offense thoroughly underperformed. The strikeout rate went up. The batting average with runners in scoring position went down. Manager Dave Roberts called out his hitters for a lack of “urgency or focus” in their approach at the plate. “It’s not something I like saying,” Roberts said. “But I just don’t see any other reason – given the talent we have – why we have been a bottom-five offense for two months. For our talent, that’s just inexcusable.” Those hitters seemed to flip a switch in September. Among NL teams, only the Phillies scored more than the Dodgers during the month of September. Shohei Ohtani came to life in September (a .312 average, 10 home runs and 1.165 OPS). Mookie Betts continued his resurgence and led the majors with 23 RBIs during the month. Even without All-Star catcher Will Smith (broken bone in his right hand), the Dodgers’ offense is humming again.
The Reds, meanwhile, made the postseason with one of the more unimposing offenses in the National League. Dynamic Elly De La Cruz is a star, but no other Reds hitter had more than his 22 home runs and only one regular (DH Miguel Andujar, acquired from the Athletics at midseason) had with an OPS higher than De La Cruz’s .777. They managed just 15 runs in the six games they played against the Dodgers this season. EDGE: DODGERS
STARTING PITCHERS
REDS: RH Hunter Greene (7-4, 2.76 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 11.0 Ks per 9 IP), LH Nick Lodolo (9-8, 3.33 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 9.0 Ks per 9 IP), LH Andrew Abbott (10-7, 2.87 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 8.1 Ks per 9 IP)
DODGERS: LH Blake Snell (5-4, 2.35 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 10.6 Ks per 9 IP), RH Yoshinobu Yamamoto (12-8, 2.49 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 10.4 Ks per 9 IP)
Oh, how things have changed. The Dodgers’ Achilles’ heel heading into the postseason the past two years was their starting rotation – or lack of one. Remember the 2023 NLDS against the Arizona Diamondbacks when Bobby Miller, Lance Lynn and a compromised Clayton Kershaw (he would have shoulder surgery) gave up 13 runs while getting just 14 outs in the three-game sweep? Or last year when the road to a World Series title included multiple bullpen games? This year, the Dodgers have the luxury of choosing from six quality starters. Snell, Yamamoto and Ohtani (if necessary) will likely take the ball for the series against the Reds. Those three combined to allow just eight runs on 33 hits while striking out 86 over 65⅔ innings during the month of September.
The trio of Greene, Lodolo and Abbott give the Reds a puncher’s chance. If they are going to upset the Dodgers, it will take dominant performances from two of the three. Manager Terry Francona resisted any temptation to pitch Greene on short rest Sunday to nail down the wild-card spot so now he has him on full rest for Game 1. The hard-throwing former Sherman Oaks Notre Dame High star allowed two runs or fewer in four of his past five starts. Lodolo, on the other hand, left his start Thursday with a groin muscle issue but returned to throw an inning in relief on Sunday. EDGE: DODGERS
PROJECTED BULLPEN
REDS: RH Emilio Pagán (2-4, 32 saves, 6 blown saves, 2.88 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 10.6 Ks per 9 IP), LH Brent Suter (1-2, 4.52 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 7.0 Ks per 9 IP), RH Tony Santillan (MLB-high 80 appearances, 1-5, 7 saves, 2.44 ERA,1.11 WHIP, 9.2 Ks per 9 IP), RH Graham Ashcraft (8-5, 3.99 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 8.8 Ks per 9 IP), RH Connor Phillips (5-0, 2.88 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 11.5 Ks per 9 IP), RH Chase Burns (0-3, 4.57 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 13.9 Ks per 9 IP), RH Nick Martinez (11-14, 4.45 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 6.3 Ks per 9 IP, 40 appearances, 26 starts), RH Scott Barlow (6-3, 4.21 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 9.9 Ks per 9 IP)
DODGERS: LH Tanner Scott (1-4, 23 saves, 10 blown saves, 4.74 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 9.5 Ks per 9 IP), RH Blake Treinen (2-7, 2 saves, 5.40 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, 12.2 Ks per 9 IP), LH Alex Vesia (4-2, 5 saves, 3.02 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 12.1 Ks per 9 IP), LH Jack Dreyer (3-2, 4 saves, 2.95 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 8.7 Ks per 9 IP), RH Roki Sasaki (1-1, 4.46 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 6.9 Ks per 9 IP in 10 appearances, 8 starts), RH Tyler Glasnow (4-3, 3.19 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 10.6 Ks per 9 IP in 18 starts), RH Emmet Sheehan (6-3, 2.82 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 10.9 Ks per 9 IP in 15 appearances, 12 starts), LH Anthony Banda (5-1, 3.18 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.4 Ks per 9 IP), RH Ben Casparius (7-5, 2 saves, 4.64 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 8.2 Ks per 9 IP), RH Edgardo Henriquez (2-1, 1 save, 2.37 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 8.5 Ks per 9 IP)
The ‘Dawgs’ of last year’s postseason run to the World Series title have been replaced by the wobbly wheel on your grocery cart, threatening to take the Dodgers’ postseason hopes crashing into the canned goods. Andrew Friedman spent – uncharacteristically – heavily on relievers last winter, signing Tanner Scott for four years and $72 million, Kirby Yates for one year and $13 million and giving Blake Treinen a two-year, $22 million contract extension. Scott led the majors in blown saves (10). Yates was ineffective and is on the injured list. Treinen missed much of the season with a forearm injury and has been unreliable since he returned. And Friedman swung and missed at the deadline, acquiring Brock Stewart, whose season ended in shoulder surgery after just four appearances with the Dodgers.
However, Roberts’ “trust tree” (as he calls it) could sprout some new branches in the postseason. Starters Emmet Sheehan and Tyler Glasnow will move to the bullpen for this series. Roki Sasaki could be a wild card. He looked electric in his two bullpen auditions last week. As good as the Dodgers’ starting pitching should be, the Dodgers will have to find some reliable relievers to close out games.
Emilio Pagán has been a solid closer for the Reds with Tony Santillan a steady setup man. A pair of rookies – converted starter Connor Phillips and Chase Burns – give the Reds a pair of righties with strikeout stuff. They could be a little short on lefties, though, to match up with Ohtani, Freeman and Muncy. Overall, the Reds have a middling bullpen – something the Dodgers can only aspire to. EDGE: REDS
BENCH
REDS: OF Will Benson (.226/.273/.435, 12 HRs, 41 RBIs), OF Austin Hays (.266/.315/.453, 15 HRs, 64 RBIs), C Tyler Stephenson (.231/.316/.421, 13 HRs, 50 RBIs), 1B Sal Stewart (.255/.293/.545, 5 HRs, 8 RBIs)
DODGERS: IF/OF Kiké Hernandez (.203/.255/.366, 10 HRs, 35 RBIs), OF Michael Conforto (.199/.305/.333, 12 HRs, 36 RBIs), IF Hyeseong Kim (.280/.314/.385, 3 HRs, 17 RBIs, 13 SBs), C Dalton Rushing (.204/.258/.324, 4 HRs, 24 RBIs), OF Alex Call (.267/.361/.385, 5 HRs, 31 RBIs with Dodgers and Nationals)
The Dodgers could carry three catchers if they think Will Smith has recovered enough from his hand injury to contribute. More likely, they will give him the additional time to heal and re-evaluate when (if) they advance to the next round. Kim gives them an interesting weapon off the bench with his speed.
The Reds have gotten quite a bit out of this group. They platoon with the left-handed Will Benson and right-handed Austin Hays. Both are power threats as is Sal Stewart, a young prospect who got just 18 games of experience this season. Tyler Stephenson and Jose Trevino got almost even playing time at catcher during the season. EDGE: REDS
MANAGERS
REDS: Terry Francona, 24th season (first with Reds), 2033-1751, .537, 13th postseason, 44-34, .564 (three pennants, two World Series titles)
DODGERS: Dave Roberts, 10th season, 944-576, .621, 10th postseason, 56-44, .560 (four pennants, two World Series titles)
Dave Roberts survived his “sliding doors” moment in Game 4 of last year’s NL Division Series against the San Diego Padres and made all the right moves to get the Dodgers a World Series title despite their pitching limitations. He will have to have the same kind of near-flawless postseason this year given the Dodgers’ untrustworthy bullpen.
Terry Francona, meanwhile, was already on his way to Cooperstown before he came out of retirement to take the Reds job this year. He should have brought David Ortiz and Pedro Martinez out of retirement with him. He doesn’t have the horses here that he had while winning titles with the Boston Red Sox. EDGE: DODGERS
SERIES PREDICTION
The Reds made history by reaching the postseason without any of their regulars batting .270 or hitting 25 home runs or any pitcher winning 15 games. No previous team had qualified for the postseason without any of those ingredients. They can thank the New York Mets for that. The Mets’ collapse (10-15 in September) cleared a path for the Reds to claim the NL’s third wild-card spot on the final day of the regular season.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, finally lived up to their billing in September, finishing the season with 15 wins in their last 20 games. It might be better for them that they didn’t finish with one of the two best records in the NL for the first time since 2018. A five-day break might have slowed their roll. The Reds aren’t likely to. DODGERS IN TWO