Affordability, this year’s political buzzword, will almost certainly continue to dominate next year’s midterms and gubernatorial races.
Nonetheless, as pressing as cost of living concerns are, there is an under the radar issue that candidates cannot afford to overlook: crime and public safety.
Indeed, whereas the president and congress play an outsized role in boosting wages, improving the economy, and keeping costs low, it is governors who oversee each state’s policing and criminal justice system.
Moreover, affordability and crime are inextricably linked, as increased poverty tends to lead to higher crime rates.
Conversely, when crime is under control, businesses feel more comfortable investing in the state, bringing jobs and higher wages, contributing to increased affordability.
To be sure, this is particularly acute in California, which saw a surge in crime during the pandemic, from which the state has never really recovered.
According to the FBI, in 2024, rates of violent and property crimes in the Golden State were 35% and 18% higher, respectively, than the U.S. national average.
Elevated crime rates have led California voters to increasingly voice their frustrations and state and local officials who prove unable – or unwilling – to tackle the crime epidemic.
Within the last three years, San Francisco voters – perhaps the most liberal in the state – were so fed up with officials’ soft-on-crime approach that they recalled progressive DA Chesa Boudin.
They followed that up by ousting Mayor London Breed for a moderate Democrat, Daniel Lurie, and voters statewide overwhelmingly (68% to 32%) passed Prop 36, increasing penalties for an array of crimes.
Now, with early voting for June’s primary election set to begin in just 5 months, how each candidate plans to tackle the state’s growing crime and homelessness issue is increasingly important to consider.
Perhaps for that reason, Republican Chad Bianco – currently the sheriff of Riverside County – has put the issue front and center.
Bianco, leading the field at 13% per Emerson polling, has stressed his “vision for a better California” which is built on “making families and businesses feel safe and giving law enforcement the resources they need to protect our communities.”
Democrats’ dominance means that while it’s unlikely that Bianco ultimately wins, he very well make it to the runoff, in which he may double down on his policing record, playing into voters’ concerns.
For their part, the leading Democrats in the race – Rep. Eric Swalwell and Antonio Villaraigosa – have prioritized another aspect of the debate over crime: ICE agents and President Trump’s “militarization” of California streets – Katie Porter does not mention the issue on her campaign website.
That dichotomy – Bianco focusing on genuine crime and Democrats playing up their opposition to Trump’s crime and immigration tactics – is worth noting.
California voters, particularly Democrats who make up the majority of the state, may be more attracted to candidates willing to spar with Trump than those who want to strengthen law enforcement, but candidates who ignore crime and public safety do so at their own peril.
Once voters no longer feel safe in their homes or communities, they are likely to prioritize that issue above most or all others.
Put another way, Democrats who overlook quality of life issues in favor of hoping to score points by antagonizing Trump and pushing back on the administration’s crime policies – heavy-handed as they may be – could find themselves vulnerable to criticisms of being soft on crime.
Interestingly, polling can often obscure the importance voters place on crime and quality of life issues vis-à-vis other issues.
The aforementioned Emerson survey shows that roughly 5% of California voters feel it is the most pressing issue facing the state.
And yet, before affordability became the preeminent issue this year, Berkeley polling revealed that nearly one-quarter (23%) of voters felt that crime and public safety (23%) was the top issue.
Notably, in the years between the Emerson and Berkeley poll, neither violent crime nor property crime decreased significantly, underscoring that more often than not, crime is not a top of mind issue – until it is paramount.
Fair or not, California’s crime epidemic is routinely magnified by the national media, and if businesses do not feel safe here, they will either flee the state or avoid it altogether, dealing severe damage to any affordability agenda.
As such, while it may seem unlikely that California’s gubernatorial race will turn on which candidate voters most trust to improve public safety, it is an absolutely critical issue for them to address.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.