Call it a “mini blue wave.”
Indeed, in the first referendum on President Donald Trump’s second term, voters delivered Democrats a clean sweep, taking governor mansions in New Jersey, Virginia, passing Prop 50 in California, and winning a number of other off-year elections.
To be sure, Democrats had been expected to win both New Jersey and Virginia, despite glimpses of Republican momentum in recent years.
Thus, while the results themselves were not upsets, the margins of victory should give the Democratic Party some optimism, even as it still tries to find its footing.
At the core of Democrats’ successes was putting Trump on the ballot, harnessing anti-Trump sentiment to motivate their base as well as Independents upset at the direction of the country under the incumbent administration.
In both New Jersey and Virginia, the two Democrats – Rep. Mikie Sherrill and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, respectively – worked to tie their GOP opponents to the president, with clear effectiveness.
Consider New Jersey, where the economy and state’s high cost of living dominated the campaign.
Voters trusted Republican Jack Ciattarelli by considerable margins on economic issues, so Sherrill doubled down on turning the election into a referendum on the president, helping her win by 13-points in an election that was supposed to be the closest of the night.
What Virginia (56%) and New Jersey (55%) have in common is that majorities of voters in both states disapprove of the job Trump is doing, according to NBC exit polls. And in both states – as well as California – Democrats used the president as a motivating factor.
Sizable shares of the electorate in New Jersey (41%) and Virginia (38%) said their vote was “to oppose Trump” – both more than double the number saying they were voting “to support Trump” – according to CNN exit polls.
And in California, more than 8-in-10 (82%) California voters who voted “yes” on Prop 50 said they did so to counter Republicans – just 17% said it was the best way to draw districts – per CBS News.
To that end, the biggest winner of the night may have been Gavin Newsom, who, like Trump, was also not on the ballot.
When Newsom decided to take the fight to President Trump and the GOP over redistricting, it was far from a sure bet, even in deep-blue California.
As I’ve noted in these pages, initial polling from the summer showed that just 36% of California voters supported partisan redistricting, while a sizable majority (61%) wanted to keep the independent commission.
Newsom made no secret of his strategy to turn the ballot measure into a referendum on the president, confident that anger towards the administration would be enough to overcome resistance to an overtly partisan move.
He could not have been more correct. In the end, the final vote was not even close.
By a measure of almost 2-to-1 (64% to 36%), Proposition 50 passed, likely giving Democrats up to five additional seats in the House next year, potentially making it the most impactful win Democrats had on Tuesday.
Certainly, Newsom’s success in securing such wide margins – and a tangible win against Trump – will further cement him as Democrats’ front runner for 2028.
Republicans have noticed as much.
According to Politico, Republicans “acknowledge this week that Newsom looks more politically formidable than at any other point in his career.”
The same article also highlighted Republicans’ awareness that the Prop 50 campaign allowed Newsom to build out the kind of national infrastructure that will prove invaluable for a presidential campaign.
With this in mind, while Democrats should be happy with their successes, it is far too early to assume the party is out of the woods.
These races were held in largely Democratic states, and Trump’s absence from the ballot likely kept significant numbers of Republican voters home.
Further, Democrats’ wins came in spite of voters’ continuing to hold negative views of the wider party.
Less than 3-in-10 (29%) of voters hold favorable views of the Democratic Party, versus a majority (55%) with an unfavorable view, per CNN polling.
Finally, while Democrats have clearly had success running against Trump, that cannot be the party’s sole message going forward.
To win going forward, particularly in 2028, Democrats will have to develop a unifying agenda that tells voters what they will do aside from standing up to Donald Trump.
In that same vein, for the Trump administration, the results should be a wakeup call.
Elected to lower the cost of living and strengthen the economy, particularly after the Biden years when inflation hit 40 year highs, Trump’s policies have not yet delivered.
For the GOP to be competitive in next year’s midterms, they’re going to have to work on their economic messaging.
Put another way, with approval on Trump’s handling of the economy underwater (41% approve vs. 55% disapprove per RealClearPolitics aggregator), the administration will have to demonstrate that its able to deliver on its pro-growth economic agenda.
Notably, the election results seemingly alerted the White House to that vulnerability. Politico reported that one “White House ally” said that Trump “won on lowering costs…and people don’t feel that right now.”
Of course, there is sufficient time for the administration to change course before voters next head to the polls, but they must do it now if they want to retain both chambers of Congress.
Ultimately, and without taking anything away from Democrats who won impressively, whether Tuesday’s elections were the first signs of green shoots for the Democratic Party or simply an expression of discontent with Trump remains to be seen.
Much can change between now and midterms, and now both parties will have to recalibrate their strategies if they hope to win going forward.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.