When former Vice President Kamala Harris announced that she would not enter California’s gubernatorial race, the assumption was that she did so in order to take another shot at the White House in 2028.
However, it increasingly appears that Democrats – at least those in California – have begun passing on the former VP in favor of Gov. Gavin Newsom.
Moreover, as Newsom continues leading the fight against Trump and GOP-led redistricting, there are signs that Democrats across the country may soon rally around the California Governor.
According to a new Politico-Citrin Center-Possibility Lab survey, which sampled California Democrats, Newsom leads Harris by 6-points (25% to 19%) in preferences for Democrats’ 2028 presidential nominee.
In that same vein, Emerson polling from early August found very similar results. In that poll – also conducted among California voters – Newsom (23%) led the Democratic field, with Buttigieg (17%) and Harris (11%) behind him.
Further, political betting site Polymarket shows Newsom (28%) with the best odds to be Democrats’ 2028 nominee, 14-points ahead of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and 23-points ahead of Harris.
To be sure, while 2028 is a considerable time away, these polls are not outliers.
Rather, they reinforce a point I made in these pages nearly two months ago: the political prospects for Newsom and Harris are sharply diverging.
Indeed, immediately after the 2024 election, Harris dominated 2028 polling.
At the time, polls, including this one from Puck News/Echelon Insights in November 2024 showed Harris holding a 33-point lead over the 2nd place Newsom (41% to 8%).
Similarly, an Emerson survey – also taken last November – reported that Harris led Newsom by a virtually identical 30-points (37% to 7%).
Behind Newsom’s improving political fortunes appears to be the increasingly front and center role he’s taken in fighting back against Trump and Republicans.
Nowhere is this more evident than in the ongoing saga over redistricting, an issue Newsom is using to raise his profile among Democratic voters, and which he is increasingly staking his 2028 hopes on.
To that end, as the redistricting issue garners more attention and with California lawmakers set to pass the measure to put it on the ballot, the risks for Newsom raise in tandem.
Should California voters pass the ballot referendum this fall, polls suggest that it will be a boom for Newsom’s chances in the Democratic primary.
One recent survey from UC Berkeley-Citrin Center shows that nearly two-thirds (63%) of national Democrats support California redistricting as a response to Texas’ efforts.
Further, former President Barack Obama has joined Newsom’s supporters, saying that California’s response to Texas is a “reasonable approach.”
Interestingly – and likely why Newsom is pushing so hard for redistricting – national Democrats are considerably more supportive of drawing new districts than those in California.
As I cited last week, more than 6-in-10 (61%) of California Democrats prefer the current system of an independent redistricting commission, versus just 39% who want politicians to redraw the maps.
In other words, with national Democrats overwhelmingly supportive of partisan redistricting, Newsom is hoping that he will garner their support if he successfully pushes the ballot measure through – and he very well may.
With all of this being said, there is a significant downside should California voters reject the Governor’s push, a very real possibility.
The aforementioned California poll revealed that 64% of all California voters opposed partisan redistricting, while 36% supported giving lawmakers the power to redraw maps.
Joining the nearly two-thirds of Californians in opposition to Newsom’s efforts is former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. And while Schwarzenegger’s campaign is non-partisan – he even endorsed Harris in 2024 – California Republicans have joined in.
According to Politico reporting, former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said he’s planning to raise more than $100 million to fund an opposition campaign, along with $30 million already promised by Charles Munger Jr. – the son of Warren Buffett’s late partner.
Whether or not the opposition is enough to overcome many Californian’s desire to push back against Trump and the GOP remains to be seen.
But it is clear that Newsom’s success is not a foregone conclusion.
With that in mind, should California voters reject the ballot measure, the defeat would be a tremendous blow for Newsom’s 2028 hopes.
Not only would the governor have failed to land an actual hit on Trump – something no Democrats or Republicans have truly been able to do thus far – but national Democrats may feel Newsom is ineffective.
Put another way, given that Newsom’s rise in Democratic primary polling appears linked to his confrontations with Trump, it stands to reason that, should he fail, perceptions of him as the only Democrat willing and able to fight fire with fire will also take a hit.
Finally, it must be remembered that there are also risks for Newsom even if he is successful.
An overtly partisan move like this, while potentially beneficial in a Democratic primary could very well backfire in a general election, especially if Independents take a dim view of such moves.
Ultimately, in what figures to be a crowded Democratic field in 2028, Gavin Newsom is clearly seeking to raise his profile by capitalizing on an issue that would endear him to national Democrats – even if it means risking a potentially humiliating defeat.
Whether or not he succeeds is yet to be determined, but right now, there is little doubt that it has worked to elevate Newsom above Kamala Harris and other candidates.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.