Without meaning to, Republicans have handed California Gov. Gavin Newsom an opportunity to kill two birds with one stone: land an actual win against President Trump, and significantly bolster his 2028 presidential hopes.
Indeed, Newsom’s announcement that California would redraw their congressional districts – in response to Texas’ efforts – may be the most striking example of a Democrat doing what their voters have been craving – taking the fight to the President.
Moreover, by showing a willingness to challenge Trump by weaponizing California’s 52 congressional seats, Newsom stands to benefit in the eyes of Democratic voters.
While an overtly political move by Newsom – and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott – to try and squeeze out a few more safe, partisan districts mid-decade rather than the usual time post-census, Democratic voters will likely applaud it.
At a time when Democrats are locked out of power in Congress, Democrats have been reduced to performative protests and courtroom victories, neither of which excite voters.
To that end, Democratic impotence in the face of Trump and the GOP has left the party’s voter base increasingly looking for a leader to emerge who can lead the fight against Trump.
In the words of Jamie Harrison, former head of the Democratic National Committee, “It’s the No. 1 requirement for whomever becomes our de facto head in 2028…you have to be willing to fight.”
Nevertheless, there are considerable risks for Newsom, and he’s only added to the potential pitfalls by taking a leading role in the redistricting fight.
The first – and biggest – risk is that California voters reject the proposed new districts.
While this would be a setback for the entire party by further eroding their chances to retake the House, it would be an even bigger setback for Newsom’s White House bid.
True, Democrats outnumber Republicans in the Golden State by almost 2:1 (46% to 25%), but getting the votes of a sufficient number of Independents is by no means a sure thing.
Per Politico reporting, early polling by Democrats showed that a “bare majority (52%) of voters approve of the proposed new maps – sufficient, but hardly comforting for internal Democratic polling in a deep-blue state.
Former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger – who as governor successfully pushed for constitutional amendments shifting the responsibility for drawing districts from politicians to an independent commission – has already pledged to campaign against the redistricting effort.
Notably, despite running as a Republican in his gubernatorial campaigns, Schwarzenegger is framing the anti-gerrymandering campaign as non-partisan. And his noted dislike of Trump may help avoid his push being seen as helping the President.
The second big risk for Newsom is that, even if voters approve the proposed new districts in November’s special election, it simply may not work.
Assuming California’s five new Democratic seats and Texas’ five GOP seats cancel each other out, it may not be enough to hand the House back to Democrats.
This is all the more the case given general antipathy voters currently have to the Democratic Party nationwide.
A recent Wall Street Journal poll found that nearly two-thirds (63%) of voters have an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party, 9-points higher than the Republican Party and 11-points higher than President Trump.
Finally, while Newsom’s own personal ratings have tended to benefit after sparring with Trump, its entirely possible that this latest move is a bridge too far.
A blatantly political push such as this may give the lie to Newsom’s long-stated claims to be opposing Trump in order to save democracy, something that could leave him vulnerable in a general election.
In that same vein, California Democrats themselves admit that the special election vote will be a referenda on Trump, rather than a genuine vote on policies to improve the state.
Thus, Democrats are continuing to underscore that their entire ethos is anti-Trump rather than advancing their own agenda.
And yet, despite the risks involved, Newsom also stands to gain tremendously by leading this effort.
By positioning himself as the chief opponent of Trump, spearheading an expensive, high-profile fight – especially in an off-election year – Newsom will likely elevate his own profile ahead of 2028.
Just how much this boosts Newsom at the expense of other Democratic Governors considered 2028 contenders – Govs. Pritzker (IL), Shapiro (PA), Moore (MD), and Whitmer (MI) – remains to be seen.
But, if the measure passes, Newsom will have won at least one more high-stakes fight with Trump than any of the other governors or congressional representatives.
Similarly, by nationalizing the issue of mid-decade redistricting, Newsom gives himself the ability to stay in the news, fundraise large amounts, and deepen relationships with Democratic donors – all things that will come in handy during a Democratic primary.
Ultimately, the full impact of California’s and Texas’ moves to redraw congressional maps for clear partisan reasons remains to be seen, especially for Newsom.
And while it reflects the hyper-polarization of American politics – and is therefore distressing for those who want our elected officials to have citizens’ best interests at heart rather than scoring political points – these are the times we find ourselves in.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.