ESCALATING border clashes between North and South Korea have sparked fresh fears all-out war could explode over one “miscalculation”.
Armed with an arsenal of nukes and chemical weapons, experts have warned a war with tyrant Kim Jong-un could be one of the bloodiest in history.
Deranged dictator Kim Jong-un has been ramping up weapons testsAFP
North Korea shows off its firepower in artillery testing as it ramps up military drills
APDozens of North Korean soldiers near the border, seen from a South Korean guard post[/caption]
APNorth Korean soldiers pictured near the border area in June[/caption]
ReutersNorth Korean leader Kim Jong-un[/caption]
APPals Vladimir Putin and Kim have signed a new military pact in an anti-West show of strength against ‘aggression’[/caption]
It’s feared tensions will soon hit boiling point – with the drums of war beginning to beat on the Korean peninsula.
South Korea has fired warning shots at North Korean soldiers twice in one week after troops crossed the border – the third incident in just a month.
Meanwhile, deranged dictator Kim has been laying more landmines, reinforcing roads and adding what look like anti-tank barriers on the South’s doorstep.
Satellite images suggest the North is also building new defence lines right on the border – risking “escalation” and “bloodshed”, experts have warned.
And Kim has been intensifying weapons tests as the US, South Korea and Japan host a flurry of war games in the region.
In a brazen intimidation move, North Korea sent a wave of 260 filthy faeces-filled balloons to South Korea last month.
North and South Korea are technically still at war as a peace treaty was never signed after the 1950-1953 Korean war.
A 2.5-mile wide Demilitarised Zone dividing the two countries is one of the most heavily mined places on Earth – strewn with landmines to deter enemy troops.
As gunshots ring out on the border, experts have warned that clashes could spiral into all-out war over a “strategic miscalculation”.
Analysts have warned a Korean war could cost millions of lives and prove far more destructive than the hell that Vladimir Putin has unleashed in Europe.
And it comes as nuke-armed allies Kim and Putin have vowed to forge a “New World Order” and signed a new military pact.
Speaking to The Sun, Michael Madden, director and founder of NK Leadership Watch, said a “serious escalation” on the Korean peninsula would be triggered by “several days of incidents near the border”.
These “incidents” – including shots being fired – would unfold “for a period of about five days to a week before a serious escalation in tensions”.
This could then spark a “strategic miscalculation which could incite a larger conflict”, he told The Sun.
“There are number of tripwires and forums before it would reach that point,” he added.
SPIRALLING TENSIONS
Tensions have been ramping up this year in terms of frequency and intensity of incidents, Madden said.
And he expects the two countries to be “locked in a state of mutual antagonism for the next few months”.
He said: “We have yet to see any major live fire engagement or the North blasting off artillery shells near the Northern Limit Line.
“If North Korea remains satisfied with its current posture on the inter-Korean border… then tensions on the Peninsula will probably be locked in this state of mutual antagonism for the next few months.”
But Dr Alan Mendoza, executive director of think tank Henry Jackson Society, said tensions will escalate if “repeated incursions” by North Korea troops “ignite a battle” with South Korean soldiers.
Clearly South Korea must resist any border crossing attempts – but the situation can be contained as long as there are no deaths
Dr Alan Mendoza
He told The Sun: “The tipping point would either be if South Korean warning shots ended up killing North Korean soldiers, or if the North Koreans started a firefight with their southern neighbours.
“North Korea’s current building activities in the demilitarised zone between the two countries are inherently escalatory.
“Clearly South Korea must resist any border crossing attempts – but the situation can be contained as long as there are no deaths.”
According to NK News, North Korea has expanded its defence zone by building two new paths that cross the Military Demarcation Line.
It’s the first such activity in decades – sparking fears of escalation.
APSouth Korean soldiers have fired warning shots multiple times in just one month at the North’s soldiers who crossed the border[/caption]
AFPThe Demilitarized Zone dividing the North and South is one of the most heavily mined places on Earth[/caption]
APA North Korean military post, top, and a South Korean post, bottom, seen from Paju, South Korea, near the border with North Korea[/caption]
AP‘Axis of Evil’ allies Putin and Kim Jong-un have been bolstering defence ties between their two countries[/caption]
ReutersKim and Putin were pictured giggling throughout the Russian president’s two-day visit[/caption]
“This raises the probability of one side disputing intrusions from the other,” Madden, from NK Leadership Watch, said.
“If the South sends personnel across that line, then the North can protest an incursion from the South and use that as the pretext for detaining personnel or opening fire.
“Similarly, if the North were to move across that new line then the South can justify its response.”
Retired Korean Army Lt. Gen. Chun In-bum told NK Pro that crossing the demarcation line “whether deliberate or by accident… will invite action that could lead to bloodshed”.
And Chris Wagner, a former US military officer who monitored the Korean border, warned it could be “a low-risk provocation attempt to force a disproportionate response… to justify further escalation”.
The Sun has previously mapped out how a Korean war might play out – and how bloody the toll could be.
Adding nuclear weapons could dramatically increase the casualties
Dr Bruce Bennett
Dr Bruce Bennett, a North Korea expert from the RAND think-tank, believes the war would play out in three broad phases – along with an initial phase of escalation.
And he said it would likely to lead to hundreds of thousands, if not millions of deaths.
Dr Bennett said: “Even the Korean War in the 1950s with no nuclear weapons use, hundreds of thousands of people were killed on both sides.
“Adding nuclear weapons could dramatically increase the casualties.
“For example, one programme that does nuclear damage assessment shows that if a single North Korean nuclear weapon… detonates as an airburst at its default location for Seoul, almost 600,000 people could be killed and another 2.5 million seriously injured.
“And North Korea might well have the nuclear material required to make 50 to 100 nuclear weapons.”
A refugee crisis would almost certainly ensue, as millions fled north into China. Japan would almost certainly come under pressure to take people fleeing the south.
And Russia could also be dragged into it since it shares a small border with the North.
Dr Menzoda said a Korean war could be “a localised skirmish between border troops that ended quickly if both sides pulled back from the abyss”.
Or it could spiral into “a full state on state conflict that would involve mass mobilisation, huge devastation from conventional weapons, and even the use of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal”, he explained.
He said: “Both North and South Korea have operational plans for such a conflict.
“It would require some very quick and cool international diplomacy to keep the situation controlled rather than exploding.
“In the worst case, such a conflict could bring in other major powers like the USA, Japan, Russia and China on different sides.”
KIM & VLAD’ S ‘NEW WORLD ORDER’
The heightened border tensions comes as Putin and Kim forge closer ties than ever.
This week, the Russian president, 71, visited North Korea for the first time in 24 years.
In a Soviet-style meeting of dictators, the two allies signed a military agreement that puts Russia and North Korea at the centre of an anti-West axis.
It’s sparked fears that Vlad would supply a raft of weapons to his pal Kim in the event of a war.
Putin said the “breakthrough document” raised relations “to a new level”.
He added: “It provides for the provision of mutual assistance in the event of aggression against one of the parties to this agreement.”
Dr Mendoza said “we could see an intensification of the trading of weaponry and knowledge”.
But their formal alliance is “more in sending a message to the West that a new Axis of Evil is rising”.
“And that we should expect the ‘Unfree World’ to increasingly ally within itself to resist Western attempts to defend the liberal international order,” he added.
Ties between North Korea and Russia have increased rapidly since Kim visited Russia in September for a meeting with Putin – their first since 2019.
US and South Korean officials have repeatedly accused the North of supplying Putin with weapons for his war in Ukraine.
The North has reportedly sent five million artillery shells and dozens of missiles to bolster the forces against Ukraine.
Both Pyongyang and Moscow have denied the accusations – which would violate UN Security Council sanctions Russia had previously endorsed.
John Kirby, spokesperson of the US National Security Council, said the ties between Russia and North Korea is concerning “because we know North Korean ballistic missiles are still being used to hit Ukrainian targets”.
He added “there could be some reciprocity that could affect security on the Korean Peninsula”.
“We haven’t seen the parameters of all of that right now, certainly haven’t seen it come to fruition,” he said.
“But we’re certainly going to be watching that very, very closely.”
Tensions between South and North Korea
TENSIONS on the Korean Peninsula have recently risen to their highest point in years – with Kim accelerating his weapons testing and South strengthening their joint war drills with the US.
Hopes for reunification shut
In January, Kim Jong-un has scrapped any effort for reunification with Seoul.
The dictator shut down several government bodies tasked with promoting reconciliation with South Korea.
He was quoted saying: “We don’t want war but we have no intention of avoiding it.”
Kim also appeared to have blown up a major monument in North Korea’s capital that symbolised hope for unity.
The move is thought to have been a deliberate choice by the dictator, signalling his refusal to unite with his country’s “enemy”.
Kim ramps up weapon testing
From the start of 2024, North Korea has tested multiple types of missile systems.
In January, the North’s military fired a new intermediate-range, solid-fuel hypersonic missile – which Washington, Seoul and Tokyo condemned as a serious violation of UN Security Council resolutions.
A week later, North Korea tested its nuclear underwater attack drone which is reportedly capable of sparking a “radioactive tsunami”.
The US and its Asian allies have responded by strengthening their combined military exercises – which Kim calls rehearsals for invasion.
At the brink of war
The current South Korean government is led by president Yoon Suk Yeol, who shares hawkish view of North Korea compared to his predecessor.
He has increased efforts to collaborate with the US and Japan to combat the North’s aggressive moves in a bid to deter the war.
In turn, Kim threatened to “annihilate” Seoul if provoked and vowed to enhance his country’s ability to deliver a nuclear strike on the US and America’s allies in the Pacific.
Experts say that Kim is trying to stoke up anger by conducting more missile tests and possibly launching small-scale physical attacks on its neighbour to meddle with South Korea’ s elections in April.
APNorth Korean soldiers stand near their military post as a North Korean flag flutters in the wind[/caption]
APSouth Korea has started blaring propaganda loudspeaker broadcasts at border areas in retaliation for the North sending over rubbish-filled balloons[/caption]