In the escalating fight between President Trump and Gavin Newsom, the California governor is trying a new strategy, one he hopes will establish himself as the only Democrat able to fight fire with fire.
Indeed, Newsom has taken a page out of Trump’s own playbook: bombastic threats and social media trolling.
In a series of posts on X, Newsom mimicked Trump’s use of all-caps, randomly placed quotation marks, name calling, and concluding with “thank you for attention to this matter” – a Trump signature as of late.
Moreover, Newsom sent the White House a letter last Monday threatening that if Trump does not tell Texas Republicans to halt their redistricting before an 8-day deadline expired, California would simply redraw their own maps in ways that nullify any GOP gains.
According to an interview he gave, Newsom calls this the “no regrets strategy” but it could also be described as his “White House 2028” strategy.
As I wrote in these pages last week, Newsom is very likely eyeing a presidential run, and he clearly believes that the best way to cement himself atop the Democratic ticket is to do what Democratic voters want more than anything: fight back.
Put another way, as Newsom sees it, the fastest path to the Oval Office runs through sparring with the current occupant, who no Democrat – or Republican – has successfully beaten before.
Newsom’s new strategy is a marked reversal from how he handled the relationship early in Trump’s second term.
Following January’s devastating fires in Southern California Newsom was walking a fine line vis-à-vis the new administration, leading to him and Trump falling into a “détente.”
That détente has now ended, with Newsom deciding that it was time to lace up his boxing gloves and take the fight to Trump.
Whether over immigration, deploying the National Guard and U.S. Marines to Los Angeles, or gerrymandering, Newsom’s preferred response to Trump’s overreach has been to burnish his credentials as a fighter.
To that end, the lingering questions are, how will Trump respond to Newsom’s new tactics? And relatedly, what do both men have at stake in this fight?
For his part, Trump has remained uncharacteristically silent, choosing to ignore Newsom’s new line of attack thus far.
But as always with the President, he could decide enough is enough and get into the ring with the California Governor.
The White House could throttle federal funding for the upcoming World Cup and Olympic games, or even slow walk fire recovery assistance.
Therein lies the question of what both have at stake.
For Trump, it appears very little. He is not eligible for re-election, and even if he were, was not depending on California turning red.
Further, were Trump to overreact or politicize a national event like the Olympics or World Cup, it may end up hurting Republicans’ 2028 nominee, particularly if that is someone in the current administration, such as Vice President Vance.
It should go without saying that Newsom is the one with significantly more at stake.
His presidential ambitions have been among the worst kept secrets in politics for many years, and he is risking a considerable amount of political capital both on the fight with Trump and to push through redistricting.
Notably, the stakes for Newsom were raised significantly on Thursday.
As I mentioned last week, if California voters rejected the redistricting proposal, it would be a tremendous embarrassment for Newsom and a blow to his presidential hopes.
Now, polling suggests support may not be as strong as previously imagined.
By an almost 30-point margin, California voters support the current system of an independent panel determining the state’s district maps (64%) rather than giving politicians the power to do so (36%), according to a Politico-Citrin Center-Possibility Lab survey.
Even among “political influencers,” less than 4-in-10 (39%) supported partisan redrawing of the maps, versus 61% who preferred the independent panel.
In that same vein, Newsom’s image among his party’s left-wing is at stake.
Progressives and far-left Democrats soured on Newsom throughout late 2024 and early 2025 due to him hosting Republicans like Charlie Kirk on his podcast, as well as Newsom’s criticism of transgender athletes in women’s sports.
Being the face of an effective – or at least energetic – anti-Trump resistance may go a long way in bringing the far-left, which is absolutely critical in a primary, back into his camp ahead of the primaries.
Similarly, in an off-election year, a public fight with Democrats’ nemesis allows Newsom to remain in the national spotlight and rub shoulders with donors and activists, while fellow Democratic Senators, Representatives, and Governors are mostly out of the news.
At the same time, the downsides for Newsom are similarly much bigger, especially if he is seen as ignoring California to focus on a national election and his national standing.
One California political insider close to Newsom told The Hill, “If this is seen as a ‘Newsom special’ it fails…If it’s seen as good governance, it might win.”
Ultimately, whether or not Newsom’s “no regrets strategy” pays off remains to be seen. There is a substantial amount of time between now and the Democratic primaries, and many things could change.
However, by fighting Trump’s fire with his own, Newsom is doing exactly what Democratic voters have been desperate for. If he can keep up with the President – which no one else has been able to do – it will likely go a very long way in shoring up his front-runner status.
Conversely, it’s entirely possible that voters see through Newsom’s latest stunt and he does not see the political benefits he appears to be counting on.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.