Global finance and investment banking leader Goldman Sachs released a study on Sunday which stated: “We find that U.S. consumers had absorbed 22% of tariff costs through June but that their share will rise to 67% if the recent tariffs follow the same pattern as the earliest ones.”
President Donald Trump responded by criticizing the global investment bank and its CEO David Solomon on social media, where Trump wrote “they made a bad prediction a long time ago on both the Market repercussion and the Tariffs themselves, and they were wrong, just like they are wrong about so much else. I think David should go out and get himself a new Economist, or, maybe, he ought to just focus on being a DJ, and not bother running a Financial Institution.”
[Note: Solomon famously pursues a sideline as a DJ using the stage name DJ D-Sol.]
On the CNBC financial show ‘Squawk Box,’ Goldman Sachs’ Chief U.S. Economist David Mericle responded to the President’s criticism by saying, “We stand by results of the study.”
Mericle explained: “In principle, tariffs can be borne by foreign exporters, by U.S. businesses, or by U.S. consumers.” He added: “Our conclusion is that U.S. businesses have borne most of the tariff costs so far because it takes time to negotiate lower import prices or to pass price increases along to consumers.”
“We stand by results of the study.”
In light of criticism from President Trump, Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Economist David Mericle joins @saraeisen, @carlquintanilla & @davidfaber to discuss how tariffs will impact businesses and consumershttps://t.co/J68pKe7vb7
— Squawk on the Street (@SquawkStreet) August 13, 2025
Though businesses have largely absorbed the tariffs so far, Mericle predicted that the current tariff situation is unlikely to last.
“Eventually by the fall, we estimate that consumers would bear about two-thirds of the cost,” he said. “Foreign exporters would bear about one-quarter of the costs, and U.S. businesses would absorb less than 10 percent.” Mericle noted that that 10 percent is a net number.
He explained further: “If you are a company importing or using goods to sell in the U.S., you’re going to get hit harder. If you are a company producing in the U.S. who is now protected from foreign competition, then you can raise your prices and benefit.”
Mericle also noted: “There are implementation lags that delay these effects. Anything that was on the boat is exempt. That gets you from that big April 9 reciprocal tariff about a month into May. And then customs doesn’t charge people every day, sometimes those payment lags can be another month. So to expect to see all of this by June and July is just a little premature.” He added: “I believe most of the impact is still ahead of us.”
Dr. Paul J. Sullivan, retired professor at the National Defense University in Washington, D.C., where for over 22 years he ran the Energy Industry Study, and taught Industry Analytics and Economics of National Security, responded: “Mericle is correct. Tariffs will have more important effects as the implementation lags work through. And the big increases in tariffs were recent.”
[Note: Mericle joined Goldman Sachs in 2012 after earning a PhD in Economics from Harvard University, where he also earned an AB in Economics and History.]
When Mericle was asked on CNBC if the President’s comments directed toward him on social media “sent a chill through the team” and “does it change anything you do or how you look at anything or interrupt the data?” he replied: “We’re just trying to do the best economic forecasts we can for our clients. And we publish research reports like the one we published over the weekend to inform those views, and we’ll keep doing that.”