California saw an uptick in voter registration — among Democrats, Republicans and “no party preference” voters alike — between October 2024 and last month, according to new data from the California Secretary of State’s office.
Here in Los Angeles County, registration numbers during this period also increased for Republicans and no-party voters but declined for Democrats.
Republicans saw their number increase by 42,730 while no-party voters netted a gain of 45,352 registrants during that 11-month stretch. Registration among Democrats, meanwhile, dropped by more than 6,000 voters.
Countywide, the number of registered voters overall increased by over 89,000, to about 5.8 million people, during this period.
But with all that said, L.A. remains a solidly blue county. Democrats continue to hold a more than 2-to-1 voter registration advantage over Republicans (51% v. 19%) and, despite a net loss since last October, still account for more than half of all registered voters in the county.
Impact of wildfires?
Something notable from the voter registration data: The only two congressional districts in L.A. County to lose voters since February — about a month after wildfires damaged or completely destroyed tens of thousands of homes or businesses in L.A. County — were those representing communities hit hardest by the disaster.
California’s 32nd Congressional District, represented by Rep. Brad Sherman, D-Sherman Oaks, who represents Pacific Palisades, lost 3,349 voters.
And California’s 28th Congressional District, ravaged by the Eaton fire and represented by Rep. Judy Chu, D-Pasadena, lost 2,480 voters.
In both cases, the vast majority of the voters lost were left-leaning — though Democrats continue to outnumber Republicans by at least 2-to-1 in both districts.
Although both districts saw a significant drop in registered voters since February, the overall change going back to last year is much less dramatic: Between October 2024 and last month, the 32nd Congressional District saw a net gain of 296 voters, while the 28th Congressional District netted a loss of 166 voters. All the other congressional districts in L.A. County increased their voter count by thousands during this period.
Of course, these numbers could change again should voters approve Proposition 50 during next month’s special election on redistricting. If the measure passes, California’s congressional district maps would be redrawn to position Democrats to pick up five more House seats in next year’s elections. The proposed new maps would be in effect for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections.
It wouldn’t mean that every current Democratic House member would gain more Democratic voters. In fact, some, including Sherman and Rep. Robert Garcia of California’s 42nd District, would see the percentage of registered Democrats in their district shrink. But the party as a whole would likely gain more House seats.
Prop. 50, peddled by Gov. Gavin Newsom, is the Democrats’ response to similar gerrymandering efforts by Republicans in Texas, Missouri and other red states to help the GOP retain control of the House after the 2026 midterm elections.
Competitive districts
Should Prop. 50 pass, California’s 27th Congressional District — one of the most competitive races, which Rep. George Whitesides, D-Agua Dulce, won last year after beating the Republican incumbent — would become bluer.
The district, in northern L.A. County, which includes Lancaster, Palmdale and Santa Clarita, is currently about 40% Democrat and 30.5% Republican. That would change to 42% Democrat and 27% Republican, with another 29% identifying as no-party preference or with a third party, under the proposed map that would be adopted if voters approve Prop. 50.
Similarly, if Prop. 50 passes, California’s 45th Congressional District — another one of the state’s most competitive congressional districts, which also flipped from red to blue after last year’s election — would become more blue as well.
First-term Rep. Derek Tran, D-Orange, is the current office holder. The majority of the district is in Orange County, though roughly 12% of registered voters in this district live in L.A. County.
Democrats still have the edge over Republicans in this district: roughly 37% v. 33%, respectively. But since last October, the vast majority of new voters have registered as Republican or “no party preference.”
The voter breakdown would widen if Prop. 50 passes. According to the proposed maps under Prop. 50, 39% of registered voters in the 45th Congressional District would be Democratic, while 30% would be Republican.
The next time the secretary of state is expected to release updated voter registration data will be on or before Nov. 27. That update will reflect registration numbers as of Oct. 20, roughly two weeks before the Nov. 4 special election.