Here’s what forecasters think the rest of 2025 hurricane season will look like

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued an August update to its 2025 hurricane season outlook, slightly lowering its prediction for how many storms to expect.

However, the forecast still calls for this year to have an above-average season, and conditions are aligning for more tropical activity as we enter the peak hurricane period.

On Thursday, NOAA said it adjusted the range of named storms from 13 to 19 down to 13 to 18. There have been four named storms so far this year and no hurricanes.

It similarly adjusted the number of hurricanes down to five to nine overall, and lowered the low end of major hurricane numbers by one, to two to five.

The May forecast predicted there was a 60% chance of an above-normal hurricane season. That probability has been lowered to 50%.

Though numbers have been adjusted down, the season is entering its peak period and ocean and atmospheric conditions still favor an above-normal season, said the report.

The prediction of an above-average remainder of the season is based on a combination of factors, including warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Seas, and an active West African Monsoon.

There is neither an El Niño nor La Niña this summer. El Niños tend to increase wind shear over the Atlantic, which can topple hurricanes. La Niñas tend to reduce wind shear.

“Many of the factors we identified ahead of the season are still at play, and conditions are largely tracking along with our May predictions,” said Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction, part of the National Weather Service.

Other factors that tend to accelerate hurricane likelihood from August through October include the dissipation of Saharan Dust. Large plumes of dry desert dust travel across the Atlantic in early summer, but tend to fade in August.

West African monsoons, which develop farther south on the continent, also begin traveling into the tropical Atlantic more frequently at this time of year. Those systems can develop into tropical cyclones.

NOAA emphasized that the outlook is not a landfall forecast since short-term weather patterns influence landfall quickly.

The hurricane season runs through November.