LAS VEGAS — Two Bears fans in the sportsbook grew increasingly loud as their team smashed the Bills, turning a 14-0 lead into 28-0 before finally securing a 38-0 victory at Soldier Field.
At one point, the Bears had a 343-22 advantage in yards.
“How good are they gonna be?”
“Fantastic!”
“Last year, Caleb [Williams] took sooooo long in the pocket! Now it’s three steps and, Boom!”
Finally, on Aug. 17, my pal Minnesota Paul had heard enough about the preseason game in which nearly no significant Bill logged a down.
“You do realize,” Paul interjected, “that all of your good guys are playing against their bad guys?”
That reality didn’t dampen their exuberance.
“I would tell them to calm down,’’ professional bettor Chuck Edel said. ‘‘Preseason results don’t mean much. Vanilla defenses.”
“I’d probably tell them not to get too high or too low,” third-generation handicapper Alexandra White said. “The Bills had only one starter — safety Cole Bishop — on defense or offense. The Bears played everyone on offense.”
Caleb questions
For a raft of expert ’cappers and veteran bookmakers who don’t get carried away by one meaningless exhibition game, opinions are mixed about the Bears this season.
Can new coach Ben Johnson polish second-year quarterback Williams in only a few months? Bears bets hinge on that proposition.
Wide receiver Keenan Allen allegedly had an answer for playing with Williams last season, and he now resides in Washington.
But several well-traveled Allen quotes, accusing Williams of being “selfish,” lack official sourcing. Welcome to 2025.
Chicago native Sam Panayotovich qualified his opinions by saying he’s not there, so he doesn’t possess such evidence.
“But [Williams] has always, from afar, felt like a guy who’s very self-oriented.
‘‘That’s the perception I’ve had all along.”
The Mount Carmel graduate, FoxSports.com betting analyst, co-host of BetMGM’s Bet Sweats radio show and Chicken Dinner podcast host laughed.
“Look at the way the Bears and Commanders are structured,’’ Panayotovich said. ‘‘The Bears are searching for the real Caleb Williams, and the Commanders are like, ‘What happened last year wasn’t a fluke.’
“The Commanders have already seen it. They know what they have, and they’re trying to build on last year.”
Sterling young quarterback Jayden Daniels guided Washington (12-5) to two playoff victories last season.
Williams and the Bears went 5-12, their 11th non-winning season in 12 years.
Plus, they’ve failed to go over their projected preseason victory mark in 11 of 12 seasons.
My sole Bears play is under 8.5 wins, at early-May value of even (or risk $100 to win $100) at Circa Sports.
At the Westgate SuperBook, ace NFL oddsman Ed Salmons favors the team only six times, a sharp Bears portent that I’ve used profitably.
Follow the script
Last season, one of Vegas Sports & Information Network (VSiN) senior writer/broadcaster Matt Youmans’ favorite bets was the Bears under 9; most books had posted 8.5.
“This year, it’s under or pass because I never consider the over with new-coach hype,” Youmans said. “Johnson is a major coaching upgrade, but he will need time to clean up the mess, including Caleb’s bad habits.
“[But] the defense looks good, and the roster is better, so I’m not as pessimistic as I’ve been in the past.”
The main issue with Williams, according to the Indiana native and Purdue graduate, is his penchant for improvising.
“Which is fine in college,” Youmans said, “but Johnson will need to train him to play within the script and structure of the offense. There will be highs and lows. I doubt there will be enough highs to get this team over 8.5 [projected wins].”
Opposite stances
Chicago natives Todd Fuhrman, a CBS-SportsHQ and SportsLine analyst, and Edel are at opposite ends of the Bears spectrum, as the former bet under 8.5 wins but the latter played over 8 at -135.
“This team still has a lot to prove to me in a lot of areas,” Fuhrman said, “let alone against arguably the deepest NFL division.”
Fuhrman suggested that bullish Bears backers look at their +550 odds, currently at the South Point, to win the NFC North, or Williams for AP MVP honors, 22-to-1 at Circa.
Edel noted the “big step up” in coaching and “solid roster,” predicting “we will see a great improvement in their play and game management.”
Odds and prices subject to change.
Odunze, you say?
Tom Barton and Panayotovich have never met, but they’re consistent when pressed about the Bears’ season.
Both bet Rome Odunze to have more than 800.5 receiving yards, which Panayotovich bought at +105 at DraftKings.
Barton is a Long Island handicapper and lifelong Bears fan.
“If [Odunze] gets the Ben Johnson slot position, which he should,” Barton said, “he could reach 1,200-plus yards. But I fully expect, no matter what, that his breakout leads to 1,000 yards. So this is a bargain.”
Panayotovich salivated over 800.5 after he saw 850.5, at -114, at FanDuel.
“Keenan Allen is gone, and the targets have to go somewhere,” he said. “I think Odunze, from a talent standpoint, is their best playmaker. And I think 800.5 is a bit disrespectful.”
In addition, he stuck to a theme from last season in advising optimistic fans to avoid the total-wins projection and bet them to make the playoffs.
At Circa Sports, for instance, the Bears over 8.5 is +135. To make the playoffs, they’re +185. Several of these sources believe nine wins get an NFC team into the postseason.
“It’s all math,” Panayotovich said, “and I think it’s the same bet.”
Tight division
At the South Point, Green Bay bettors have budged the Packers from +280 to +230, and the Vikings from +350 to +310, to win the NFC North, with the Lions (+130 to +160) and Bears (+450 to +550) slipping.
“It’ll be hard for the Vikings and Lions to duplicate last year’s records,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said, “even though they might be as good as they were, which will leave the division wide open.”
In Summerlin, at the South Point’s sister Rampart property, race and sports manager Duane Colucci circled the Bears’ tough schedule.
“They will be improved,” he said, “but I see six or seven wins.”
Thuney at 27-1
The two co-hosts of Sports by the Book, the daily show streamed out of the South Point, excavated Bears value.
Jeff Parles, a New York City native, spotlighted the potentially dynamic offense, “even with questions at left tackle.”
His favorite wagers are Bears over 8.5 wins and to make the playoffs, and +950 on Johnson to win coach of the year, which he still promotes at its current +700.
White has the Bears ranked 18th, including ninth in the NFC, in her Week One NFL power ratings. Plus-180 to make the playoffs, she said, represents value.
She shrugged at the NFL-high 68 sacks that Williams suffered last year.
“Why not take a flier on a veteran guard who could really impact that number?”
White said. “Joe Thuney comes over from Kansas City and should be a huge boost to this offensive line and give Williams more time to throw.
“I’ll take that [Circa] flier on Thuney, at 27-to-1, to be protector of the year.”