From the moment BYU set foot on the field Saturday morning in Lubbock to the second its College Football Playoff rankings flashed on the screen Tuesday evening, the postseason forecast could not have turned any more bleak.
And not just for the Cougars.
For Utah, too.
The bitter rivals appear trapped together in a doom spiral of their own making based on bad losses, poor optics, sketchy metrics and evaporating time.
If they hope to reach the CFP, current circumstances indicate there is only one viable option: Win the Big 12.
That was a distinct possibility before BYU’s face plant at Texas Tech but lurched toward grim reality Tuesday with the release of the selection committee rankings.
The Cougars dropped five spots, to No. 12, following the 29-7 loss to the Red Raiders. They didn’t haul the Utes down the rankings. Instead, Utah (7-2), which didn’t play last weekend, held its ground at No. 13, a sensible position given the head-to-head loss to BYU (8-1).
In fact, the Hotline would respectfully offer the following: Short of sheer and utter chaos in other conferences — chaos that cannot be explained by football physics or comprehended by the human mind — BYU and Utah have no path into the CFP’s at-large field.
For both, it’s the Big 12 title or bust.
Of course, only one team can win, and the current favorite is Texas Tech, which battered the Beehive State duo by a combined score of 63-17 and would be favored over either team in a rematch Dec. 6 in Arlington, Texas.
Utah’s at-large path appears blocked for two reasons:
— One more loss, regardless of opponent or location, would be the third of the season, and no Big 12 team with three losses is making the field — not when there are plenty of two-loss options from the Big Ten and SEC (and Notre Dame).
— What if Utah wins out but doesn’t qualify for the Big 12 championship, securing a 10-2 finish? Here’s the issue: There isn’t enough juice left in the schedule to fuel an ascent into the top 10.
That’s right, folks. The cut line for the CFP isn’t No. 12, as you might expect with a 12-team event. Rather, it’s No. 10, because there are spots reserved for the ACC champion and the highest-ranked Group of Five team, which are currently slotted lower than 12th and are likely to remain there upon release of the final rankings Dec. 7.
Utah’s remaining opponents, Baylor, Kansas State and Kansas, are unranked with a combined record of 14-14. None of them is good enough to provide the Utes with the rocket fuel needed to climb into the top 10, especially when teams currently below the Utes have plenty of fuel remaining.
For example: No. 17 USC plays No. 21 Iowa and No. 8 Oregon. If the Trojans win out, they will zoom past Utah.
Same with No. 18 Michigan, which plays No. 1 Ohio State.
Put another way, Utah is stuck behind the Cougars with no schedule propellant available, and is vulnerable to lower-ranked teams with high-level matchups remaining.
That’s a tough spot for any team but doubly so for a Big 12 school squeezed on all sides by the big brands and political power of the Big Ten and SEC.
The Utes need chaos, and plenty of it.
BYU is better positioned than its Holy War rival in one regard: The road into the Big 12 title game is considerably wider because the Cougars have just one conference loss (and the tiebreaker advantage over Utah).
Win out, and they’re heading to Arlington.
But the Cougars have little chance to secure an at-large berth given the committee’s assessment of their merits and metrics.
If the playoff began today, they would be on the outside looking in.
They certainly won’t move up if another loss is added to the ledger.
For those interested, the rankings offer more than a snapshot of a single team in any given week. When taken in context with upcoming schedules, they reveal floors and ceilings, open paths and sealed doors.
Locked together in the low teens, BYU and Utah are in worse shape than it appears because of what lies ahead for them and for the teams lurking a few rungs below.
Tweak two results — if Utah wins the Holy War, if BYU is competitive in Lubbock — and the outlook changes dramatically. But reality was unkind.
The Utes don’t have the schedule juice left to make the necessary ascent.
The Cougars are poised to plunge with another loss.
For both, the only road into the playoff runs through Arlington.
And through Texas Tech.
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