The third reveal of the College Football Playoff rankings was little more than an illusion for two teams in particular.
BYU and Utah were listed as the first teams left out if the field had been selected Tuesday evening. But don’t believe that, not for a second. The road is much more challenging for the bitter rivals than it appears.
Soon after the rankings reveal, ESPN’s Allstate Playoff Predictor weighed in. The Utes were given a 39 percent chance, two points higher than the Cougars.
Don’t believe that, either. While the number is a reasonable reflection of Utah’s situation, BYU’s chances are much, much worse than 37 percent.
It appears we have a lot to unpack in this edition of the Holy Score.
Let’s start with the technicalities. Listing the No. 11 Cougars and the No. 12 Utes as the first teams out is accurate because of the current cut line.
The 12-team playoff has five spots reserved for conference champions, and two (the ACC and Group of Five representatives) are ranked below BYU and Utah. Add those two automatic qualifiers to the top 10, and that’s the current field.
But in reality, there are teams in the teens that could vault the Cougars (9-1) and Utes (8-2):
— Perhaps the most dangerous is two-loss USC, which could jump several spots from its current position (No. 15) with a victory Saturday at No. 7 Oregon.
— Another is two-loss Michigan, lurking in the No. 18 position but in possession of the greatest resume rocket fuel known to humanity. If the Wolverines beat top-ranked Ohio State in the season finale, they assuredly will jump BYU and Utah and into the field.
— Then there’s No. 14 Vanderbilt, which has two losses and finishes the season against No. 20 Tennessee.
— And don’t forget about No. 17 Texas, which has three losses but also faces No. 3 Texas A&M in the finale. The Longhorns have a big brand and the power of the SEC machinery behind them. While vaulting all the way into the field with a victory over the Aggies seems unlikely, they certainly could move ahead of the Utes or Cougars, or both.
All of which brings us to the central issue facing the Holy War rivals: They have precious little juice left in their schedules. Neither team faces a ranked opponent in the final two weeks of the regular season, thereby limiting the impact of any single result.
Don’t be fooled by the current description of BYU and Utah as the first teams out. In contrast to objects in the side mirror, CFP bids are further away than they appear.
Before plunging deeper into the weeds, we should note that the Cougars and Utes have a no-questions-asked path into the playoff: win the Big 12 championship, and an invitation awaits.
But that, too, is tougher than it looks.
Based on personnel and matchups, the Utes seemingly possess a better chance to beat No. 5 Texas Tech, but their path to Arlington is narrow — and it depends on BYU losing (to Cincinnati or UCF).
The Cougars have an easier road into the conference championship (just win, baby) but would be massive underdogs against an opponent that ran them off the field two weeks ago.
In fact, the 22-point loss in Lubbock left a deeper impression on the selection committee than BYU’s metrics, which are generally quite positive and suggest the Cougars should be ranked higher than 11th.
“It’s really the way they looked in that game against Texas Tech,” committee chair Hunter Yurachek said. “They were dominated on both sides of the ball.” (Or as the Hotline noted last week: The Cougars didn’t display “playoff chops” in any way, shape or form.)
For both the Cougars and Utes, a loss in the Big 12 championship would result in certain playoff elimination.
So from our cranny of the CFP universe, it appears BYU is stuck: Lose anywhere, to anyone, and the Cougars are toast. But the likelihood of beating the Red Raiders is considerably lower than 37 percent. (Clearly, the Allstate Playoff predictor did not watch the first matchup.)
Utah’s position carries a tad more nuance, in part because the Utes stand a greater chance of beating Texas Tech — the first meeting didn’t turn lopsided until the fourth quarter — but they have a lesser chance of playing Texas Tech.
What if they handle Kansas State (home) and Kansas (road) and finish 10-2 without an appearance in the Big 12 championship?
We aren’t convinced the committee would reward the Utes.
Not with the pressure to squeeze as many SEC and Big Ten teams into the field as possible.
Not with the lack of schedule juice remaining.
And not with what could be a deeply flawed resume.
As of today, Utah has just one victory over a ranked opponent, No. 25 Arizona State. But if the Sun Devils lose to Colorado (road) or Arizona (home), they will tumble from the Top 25.
Of course, there’s a twist worth noting.
Yes, the Utes need ASU to win out in order to claim at least one victory over a ranked opponent, which is so critical to their at-large case.
But if ASU wins out, then Utah’s chances of playing Texas Tech in the conference championship — and thereby sustaining a debilitating third loss — increase substantially.
It’s downright diabolical.
One last point, and it’s a sensitive topic in Salt Lake City and, especially, Provo: Mark Harlan.
Utah’s athletic director was added to the selection committee last week following chair Mack Rhoades’ decision to step away from the CFP (and his role as Baylor’s athletic director) for personal reasons.
The committee needed a Big 12 representative, and Harlan made the most sense as a late-season replacement. He served previously (in 2023) and understands the process. He arrived without a learning curve.
Naturally, the addition of Utah’s AD to the committee generated concern among BYU constituents, who fear Harlan will help the Utes and undermine the Cougars at every turn.
But the CFP recusal policy means Harlan must leave the room for any discussion of, or vote on, Utah. However, he is allowed in the room when the committee evaluates BYU and Texas Tech. If there’s a subconscious lean within Harlan’s assessment, it seemingly would be in favor of the Big 12 candidates. (There are athletic directors from ACC, Big Ten and SEC schools, as well.)
Harlan isn’t BYU’s problem. Texas Tech is BYU’s problem.
And BYU isn’t Utah’s problem. Everyone else is Utah’s problem, in addition to a schedule that could lack the fuel necessary for a great leap forward.
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