How is the next pope chosen? Vatican to begin selection of new pontiff

‘White smoke!’

This is the most famous sign that a new pope has been elected. News organisations around the world will be watching live steams of a chimney in the Vatican, waiting for the wispy tendrils that will reveal whether the Catholic Church has a new leader.

When they see it, shouts will go up, followed by a frenzy of breaking news that a new pontiff has been elected.

Before any smoke is sent up from the Sistine Chapel, however, there is a traditional and ceremonial process which must be followed, where senior priests known as cardinals meet to decide in secret who should be the new pope.

You might have seen it in the film Conclave, which depicts the process – but some scenes in the Hollywood production are so inaccurate they could even lead to excommunication.

What really happens in the conclave?

It begins with the cardinals being summoned. Cardinals are senior officials in the Church – and whoever becomes the next pope is overwhelmingly likely to be one of them, even though technically it could be any baptised Catholic male.

There are currently 252, but only 138 are eligible to vote, as they need to be under 80 years old (the others can still participate in the discussions surrounding it).

Strict rules surround the process, with cardinals banned from striking deals to vote in blocs.

The election itself is known as a conclave (Latin for ‘key’), and is held inside the Sistine Chapel which was painted by Michelangelo, including the famous image of God reaching out to Adam’s finger.

It often begins 15 to 20 days after the Pope’s death, after a period of mourning where the former pontiff lies in St Peter’s Basilica for worshippers to file past.

This conclave is beginning 16 days after Pope Francis died on Easter Monday, April 21 – which is May 7.

Cardinals will vote for who they wish to become pope, until they have a majority of two thirds.

Details of what is happening in the chapel are kept completely secret.

The only indication to the outside world is the smoke sent up twice a day, from burning the ballot papers.

Black smoke indicates a decision has not yet been reached. White smoke, however, shows the threshold has been reached.

How long can the papal election take?

We’re unlikely to have to wait very long, if recent conclaves are anything to go by. But centuries ago, it was a much more drawn-out affair.

Once it begins, the process can last for weeks, months or even years – and cardinals have died during the period of election.

Although it has been much shorter than this in the past few decades, the longest Papal election ever lasted three years and eight months, running from November 1268 to September 1, 1271.

It took cardinals two days and five votes to elect Pope Francis after the resignation of Pope Benedict XVI in 2013.

What happens after white smoke appears?

It (probably) won’t be long before we find out who the new pope is once we see the white smoke.

The chosen successor will be asked if they are ready to take up the position.

Once – if – they say agree, the new pontiff will be dressed in white and walk to the balcony of Saint Peter’s Basilica.

The senior cardinal of the conclave will first appear on the balcony overlooking St Peter’s Square, and will announce ‘Habemus Papam’, which means ‘We have a Pope’ in Latin.

He will then introduce the new Pope using his papal name, which may be different from the one he used before.

For example, Pope Francis was previously known as Jorge Mario Bergoglio, but once elected he chose a new name in honour of St Francis of Assisi, known for his ministry to the poor as well as care for animals.

Famously, he also appeared on the balcony in a much simpler outfit than recent Popes, signalling his emphasis on humility.

Who will be the next Pope?

There are 22 names on the list of most likely contenders, according to the College of Cardinals Report.

The bookies’ favourite is Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines, who could be the world’s first Asian Pope. He has 3:1 odds.

But Jorge Bergoglio was not in many lists of the favourites before he became Pope Francis in 2013, so it can be tricky to foresee.

Read our explainer on the other contenders here.

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