For decades, climate experts have been warning that storms are becoming stronger due to the warming of ocean waters, making each hurricane worse than the last.
This week, one of the most powerful hurricanes on record in the Atlantic basin slammed into Jamaica with winds of almost 200mph, tearing roofs off buildings and wreaking havoc across the Caribbean.
Reading University Professor Chris Holloway focuses on convection and tropical meteorology, and told Metro it is true that climate change is making aspects of these storms much worse.
‘We know that sea level rise is happening because of human-caused warming,’ he said. ‘The more the sea level rises, the more risk we have of storm surge at any point near the coast because the whole base level just rises.
‘Another thing we are very sure about is that water vapour is increasing in the air because warmer air can hold more water vapour, and that means tropical cyclones and hurricanes can bring more water vapour up, condense it out, and have more rainfall.’
Though the pattern is apparent, not enough is being done to call these superstorms what they are.
For Mikaela Loach, 27, a British climate justice activist, author, and former medical student, Hurricane Melissa is deeply personal.
Her grandmother, uncles and countless friends live in Jamaica – and when there’s a storm like this, there’s only so much those who live in its path can do to prepare.
‘There is a level of powerlessness that I feel from afar,’ she told Metro. ‘I have to remind myself that while we might be powerless about some aspects of it, we are not powerless about all parts of it and the way that we react to it and how we can try and do things in this moment.
‘It’s incredibly important to highlight that Hurricane Melissa is not a natural disaster,’ she adds.
Holding powers to account
Mikaela recalls her mum telling her about when Hurricane Gilbert hit Jamaica in the 1980s as a Category 3, which was the ‘most terrifying’ experience of her life.
‘Their entire house was shaking like there was an earthquake. She and her brothers had to be shoved into a closet so that they could be safer, but there wasn’t enough space for their parents. People’s belongings were like paper in these high winds, and that was a Category 3,’ she adds.
Hurricane Melissa made landfall as a Category 5 hurricane. The extent of the damage in Jamaica won’t be known until rescue crews reach the worst-affected areas on the island.
Mikaela argues that when it comes to speaking about storms like this, language is incredibly powerful – if the world sees a hurricane of this magnitude as a natural disaster, it will be treated as though nothing could have been done to prevent it.
She adds: ‘All that does is remove the responsibility from the people who have names and addresses and are real people who are actually responsible for this.
‘Calling it an ‘Act of God’ or ‘natural disaster’ makes us feel as if this is not caused by an industry that is run by CEOs who make millions every single year from selling and burning fossil fuels.’
Rather than naming these monstrous hurricanes from the list provided by the Hurricane Centre, Mikaela suggests they should be named after fossil fuel CEOs.
‘People need to be aware of who’s actually causing this and who’s actually responsible for it, rather than seeing these storms as acts of God that we just have to pray for.’
As these storms increase in severity, those most affected by the climate change-fuelled disasters are also those who are left to pick up the pieces without help.
When Hurricane Maria tore through Puerto Rico in 2017, thousands of people died, many of whom couldn’t evacuate their homes. Almost a decade afterwards, the effects are still being felt in the US territory.
Similar echoes are happening in Jamaica already, Mikaela said.
‘Jamaica is not just a place for people to vacation. Even if the tourists are impacted by the storm, they are able to leave. People who live in Jamaica, this is their life and their home.
‘They may not have evacuated because they’re scared that if they evacuate, their house will get looted, and they’ll lose their belongings. They choose to stay and choose potential death, because if they leave, they’ll have nothing left,’ she says.
This heavier rainfall causes flooding of rivers, landslides and flash flooding – which Professor Holloway says climate change is worsening.
‘There is evidence that climate change is likely increasing the potential for these very severe storms like Melissa. A slightly warmer ocean does tend to provide for a stronger storm.’
The largest concern Professor Holloway has is that these higher ocean temperatures and a warmer world are making these storms intensify rapidly.
‘That did happen with Melissa. That makes it harder to forecast the land, harder to forecast when a severe storm might happen because they can intensify very quickly,’ he added.
‘You don’t have a lot of warning of these rapid intensification events unless models are getting very good at predicting. I do think our models, both in terms of our regular computer models and the new ones that are coming, are giving us better tools to predict rapid intensification, which is good. But it just gives you less time to prepare and warn people.’
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