Hurricane Milton formed Sunday and is expected to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane that will hit Florida’s Gulf Coast late Tuesday or Wednesday, bringing potentially “life-threatening” storm surge, destructive winds and flooding rainfall to a large portion of the state.
An expanded state of emergency now includes 51 Florida counties, including Broward, Palm Beach and Miami-Dade counties. Only counties in the western Panhandle were excluded from the emergency declaration.
Milton’s forecast cone “covers almost the entire west coast of Florida,” said Gov. Ron DeSantis Sunday morning. “[It’s] not any type of storm that has been dealt with, certainly in recent years … This is an unusual track in terms of it coming in from the Pacific Ocean, hopping across Mexico, forming and then coming horizontally into the west coast of Florida.”
DeSantis said Sunday that while it remains to be seen just where Milton will strike, it’s clear that Florida is going to be hit hard — “I don’t think there’s any scenario where we don’t have major impacts at this point.”
The forecast track for Milton is particularly concerning for the Tampa Bay area. The forecast path on Sunday morning showed the storm moving directly into and over the bay as a major hurricane, although later in the morning the track shifted south toward Sarasota.
DeSantis said Sunday that Milton is expected to make landfall at about 5 p.m. Wednesday in Pinellas County. Still, “models can shift,” he warned. “Don’t get wedded to where the landfall is being predicted right now. The cone, at this point, effectively, can bring it almost anywhere on the western Florida peninsula.”
Initial hurricane watches and storm-surge watches are likely to be issued for parts of Florida within hours, experts said Sunday.
DeSantis stated that crews readying to mobilize for power restoration, and that Milton may cause outages greater than those brought by Hurricane Helene.
There is a “massive amount of resources being marshalled,” he added.
“If the center of Milton tracks just to the north of Tampa Bay, the scope of potential storm surge is impossible to imagine,” Fox Weather hurricane specialist Brian Norcross wrote on his blog, Hurricane Intel. “Think of of Helene’s surge and add another few feet.”
“This is an unusual and extremely concerning forecast track for a hurricane approaching the Tampa Bay area,” warned AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter. “Milton could rapidly intensify into a major hurricane with extreme impacts. This hurricane could create a life-threatening storm surge. Please make sure your family and in friends in this area are prepared.”
A Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Milton on Sunday morning and reported that an eyewall has already begun to form, indicating that rapid intensification has begun.
Hurricane center forecasters said Milton will encounter complex atmospheric conditions that make its exact forecast difficult to nail down, including the intensity by the time it reaches Florida. “The intensity guidance continues to show a significant spread in the forecast peak intensity [over the next three days], with possibilities ranging from Category 1 to Category 5 strength,” the hurricane center forecasters said.
“I highly encourage you to evacuate” if you’re in an evacuation zone, said Kevin Guthrie, executive director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management. “We are preparing … for the largest evacuation that we have seen, most likely since 2017, Hurricane Irma.”
And moisture ahead of the “intense hurricane” will begin to impact Florida late this weekend before Milton makes its approach. Milton is expected to bring rain totals of 5 to 8 inches, with localized areas seeing potentially up to 12 inches, across portions of the Florida peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night.
A flood watch is in effect for all of South Florida lasting into Thursday morning.
DeSantis on Sunday expanded a state of emergency to 51 counties in advance of the storm, including Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties. Only counties in the western Panhandle were excluded from the emergency declaration.
Since many of those counties are still recovering from Hurricane Helene, DeSantis asked the Florida Division of Emergency Management and the Florida Department of Transportation to coordinate all available resources and personnel to supplement local communities as they expedite debris removal.
Though no coastal watches or warnings were in effect on Saturday, the hurricane center said the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the system’s progress.
As of 2 p.m. Sunday, Milton was located about 815 miles west-southwest of Tampa, moving east-southeast at 6 mph with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. It is forecast to become a major hurricane as it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center, and a tropical storm watch is in effect for Celestun to Cancun, Mexico.
Various forecast models that the hurricane center is using for tracking the system — known as “spaghetti models” — are showing the path hitting Florida’s west coast and moving east across the peninsula through Central Florida.
A stronger, slower storm would likely hit farther north; a faster, weaker storm would hit farther south, the models show.
Andy Jensen loads sandbags into his car in Oakland Park on Sunday, Oct., 6, 2024. (Joe Cavaretta/Sun Sentinel)
Currently, clouds and showers/thunderstorms over portions of South Florida are associated with a broad area of low pressure area not tied to Milton. Heavy rainfall and flooding is expected across South Florida through early next week. A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire area from Sunday morning to Thursday morning.
The projected impact of Milton to the South Florida region is still being assessed, but is generally expected to be late Tuesday through Wednesday.
Other tropical systems
Far in the Atlantic, Hurricane Leslie formed on Saturday and Hurricane Kirk continued moving north-northeast as a Category 2 major hurricane. Neither is a threat to land.
Leslie, located 910 miles west of Africa’s southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, had a maximum sustained wind speed of 90 mph and was moving northwest at 9 mph as of 11 a.m. Sunday. In the five-day track, forecasters are projecting the storm to turn to the northwest, away from the Caribbean, and increase in forward speed. Leslie may begin weakening sometime in the next day or so.
The forecast cone for Hurricane Leslie as of 11 a.m. Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024. (National Hurricane Center/Courtesy)
Meanwhile, Hurricane Kirk was downgraded to a Category 2 hurricane Sunday with its maximum sustained winds dropping to 100 mph. Long-range forecasts show Kirk arcing north and west toward Europe.
At 11 a.m. Sunday, Kirk was located about 1,155 miles west-southwest of the Azores and was moving northeast at 25 mph.
Finally, a tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa on Wednesday or Thursday. It could develop as it moves westward or west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic. It had a 30% chance of forming in the next seven days as of 2 p.m. Sunday.
The next named storm will be Nadine.
Information from the Associated Press was used in this report. Staff writer Robin Webb contributed to this report.
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